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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever


janetjanet998
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3 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

1) There appears to be westerly forcing pushing some of the training cells in middle TN more eastward. This is visible on KHTX. Watch the push around the 50nmi band. Pure conjecture without the aid of a sounding: flow aloft may be more from the west than south, pushing the higher-topped convection east while flow in the lower levels pushes more north. Just a thought. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=HTX-N0Q-0-6

Yep, that's what I'm worried about for Knoxville. It looks like it's on the razor's edge for now. I could see the line getting just far enough north to spare Knoxville, I could also see it getting stuck until later today over the central valley. The firehose is really aimed at us, now with a little embedded convection:

giphy.gif 

 

 

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Just now, TellicoWx said:

Janet is correct...area flood warning was issued when a flash flood warning should have been first. Areal is for steady rises...which was not the case.

MRX is notoriously stingy with Flash Flood Warnings for some reason. I've only been under a handful here my whole life. 

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13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yep, that's what I'm worried about for Knoxville. It looks like it's on the razor's edge for now. I could see the line getting just far enough north to spare Knoxville, I could also see it getting stuck until later today over the central valley. The firehose is really aimed at us, now with a little embedded convection:

 

 

It's going to be a photo finish. Storm tracks on KOHX are also showing slightly more ENE than NE. Watch the training cells move just south of McMinnville. From a hobbyist standpoint, this is fascinating to watch.

 

IMG_2283.thumb.GIF.5f8c97ad0c96052d76c3e16fa42e32ad.GIF

Meanwhile, the stream in my front yard is slowly beginning to grow into a pond.

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meanwhile ( at least no training there)

AMESTOWN, Ky. (WKYT) – A press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says that, with Lake Cumberland levels rising, the Wolf Creek Dam will step up releases to historic levels, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas downstream.

According to the release, Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at 36,200 cubic feet per second (cfs.) Now, engineers plan to increase discharge to 40,000 cfs as early as Sunday, and up to 45,000 cfs 48 hours after that. The largest amount of water ever released from the dam is 40,000 cfs, back in January of 1974.

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PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

   ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi
   Valley and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Northern and central Mississippi
     Western and middle Tennessee
     Northwest Alabama
     Southeast Arkansas
     Northeast Louisiana

   * HAZARDS...
     Several tornadoes, a few intense
     Scattered damaging winds
     Isolated large hail

   * SUMMARY...
     A few strong tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated
     large hail are expected, primarily through this evening across
     the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. The most
     dangerous period for tornadoes should be around 2 to 8 PM CST
     across northern Mississippi, southwest Tennessee, and far
     northwest Alabama.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Just incredible line aimed like an arrow at Knoxville. 

giphy.gif 

 

alot of  times these things start to weaken about this time of day of the LLJ weakens and the focus become surface based activity...but in this case the over all  system is strengthening so it may cancel that out

If some places in Knox  county already have 5 inches...I think a shot at 10 inches isn't out of the question by days end if  that train sets up over them

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They just issued a PDS Flash Flood Warning for Knox county.

 

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Knox County in east Tennessee...

* Until 130 PM EST.

* At 1036 AM EST, emergency management reported heavy rain across
  the warned area. Up to 3 inches of rain have already fallen over
  the last 3 to 4 hours with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible
  over the next 2 hours. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Knoxville. This is a
  PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Alcoa, Farragut, Louisville, Plainview,
  Halls, Blaine, Karns, Kimberlin Heights, House Mountain State Park,
  Lake Forest, Maloneyville, Mascot, Bearden, Powell and Seymour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.
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reissued
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
124 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019  
   
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOXVILLE AND KNOX COUNTY TENNESSEE  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS EXTENDED THE  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM EST.  
  
* AT 122 PM EST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED CONTINUED FLASH   
  FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE   
  ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE   
  NEXT TWO HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND EMERGENCY   
  MANAGEMENT STRONGLY SUGGESTS MOTORIST LIMIT TRAVEL AS MUCH AS   
  POSSIBLE. MANY ROADWAYS ARE IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME, AND WILL   
  REQUIRE SEVERAL HOURS FOR WATERS TO RECEDE AFTER THE RAINFALL ENDS.  
  
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOX COUNTY. THIS IS A   
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!  

 

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Posting here as well as in the svr thread....I am not seeing any svr wx polygons showing up on ANY NWS radar in the affected region....I first called Memphis to let them know but only got a recording saying they were open during business hours M-F.  This needs to be corrected for an upcoming possibly very dangerous day in the affected area.  Flood warnings show up but not svr.

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  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

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