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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever


janetjanet998
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Tennessee Valley Authority

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@TVAnews
 2h2 hours ago
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In the East Tenn. area we are releasing very high flows from the tributary dams (Norris, Cherokee, Douglas, etc.) and expect to make reductions as early as tomorrow to begin storing water. Continue moving tremendous amounts of water down the Tenn. River.

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18Z NAM with yet another tick NW with the Tuesday/weds system..now nails OH River

perhaps a concern is they are expecting the huge  rain amounts in SE TN..so they are sending all this water down TN River below Pickwick into the OH river eventually?

 

what is the heaviest falls more NW with the increased flows from the TN too? 

 

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as of 4pm today Nashville up to 8.07 for the month, including 1.24 today

FEB RECORD 12.37 in 1880

Wettest month on record MAY 2010 16.43 (most fell in 2 days)

 

Lake Cumberland rising again at 736.89 ..the watershed got hit pretty good today . outflow still holding at 28,000.      record 751 feet and change..  I think odds are increasing it will pass that mark....top of flood pool 760..

do you cut back on outflows to help downstream flooding? hold steady? or increase to 35K to keep the lake from rising faster?

 

 

 

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Not the obs thread, but seemed like it might fit better here. Took a group on a hike up to White Rocks near Ewing, VA. This would be the headwaters of the Powell. Water is already spewing out the side of the mountain, literally. Springs on the hillside are shooting water out.  Creeks I've never seen as more than a trickle or completely dry are filling very old creek beds.  The valley bottom already had creeks running out of their banks, without the additional water from the mountainside having made it there yet. All this after only round one. 

Creek I've never seen with any water: 

 

Waterfall at Sand Cave;

 Dry spring turned creek:

https://imgur.com/a/DXbm4PA

 

 

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trends are still trending NW.....may be the case now where no one gets the huge 8-10 inch amounts but more get 4-5+(i.e. OH valley.too) ..of course convection could slow/stall the north movement of any warm front too

06z GFS now has the final wave max pecip north of the OH river

I have noticed WPC forecast lags trends.....and river forecast are based on WPC I think

 

 

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As has been the case most winter...ensemble and short range hi res is busting low here. GEFS was closer (1.1), EPS (1.0), and the 3k NAM (.8) vs reality (1.6). Not sure about other locations,  but when you combine what has fallen with what is modeled on the ensembles, the 7-9 consistently shown at the start of the weekend looks on track.

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after this period a little pattern change...perhaps ..models move a strong high down form Canada...flattening the flow

however, models seem to want to rebuild the pattern somewhat (more like strong southern jet) but perhaps more south in the 10-15 day time frame...but some of the members hit you guys again

the first graphic is the 10 day mean and the last is the full 16 day run..the increase in t he second image is mostly from some members nailing you guys again

246

 

384

 

 

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DAY 2  
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...  
  
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY  
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS TO PORTIONS OF  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A  
MODERATE RISK REMAINS IN PLACE.  
  
THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL FEATURES A DEEP-LAYERED  
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHEN THE  
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND  
ACCELERATE TO BETWEEN 45 KTS AND 60 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE  
APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING  
DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE AXIS OF A 160 TO 180 KT UPPER  
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO POSITION.  THE RESULT WILL BE A WELL-DEFINED  
MOISTURE PLUME GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES NEAR  
THE GULF COAST AND LESSER VALUES DOWNSTREAM.  THE RESULT WILL BE  
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASING RAINFALL RATES FROM THE  
GULF COAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD.  
  
THERE WERE SOME CONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT  
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT COMPARED WITH  
EARLIER THINKING...BUT THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE  
PLUME AND DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY/INTENSE RAINFALL IS STILL ON-TRACK  
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY RAIN...WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  THIS RESULTED IN MAINTAINING THE MODERATE  
RISK AREA BUT ADJUSTING THE PLACEMENT OF IT AREA SOMEWHAT WEST OF  
WHERE IT WAS IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS.  ALSO NUDGED THE EASTERN  
PERIHERY WESTWARD. TOO, SINCE IT APPEARS A BROAD SPRAWLING HIGH TO  
THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FEEDING STABLE AIR ON  
THE EASTERN FLANK...BUT LEFT THE SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE AT OR NEAR  
THE BOUNDARIES COLLABORATED ON SUNDAY.   
  
THERE OVERALL PLACEMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED IN A FAIRLY NARROW  
CHANNEL BETWEEN THE DEEP SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND  
HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE  
SOUTH AND EAST.  EVEN SO, THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE  
MODELS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND WPC  
TENDED TO STAY BETWEEN THE WESTERLY ECMWF AND THE EASTERN  
OPERATIONAL GFS (WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS-FV3).   
  
BANN  
  
DAY 3  
VALID 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2019  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO  
EARLY THURSDAY...  
  
A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE  
OHIO VALLEY WILL BE ON-GOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 3 FORECAST  
AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE BEYOND 21/12Z.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE  
AS GREAT AS THEY WERE ON DAY 2...BUT THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS  
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  A MODERATE RISK AREA OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL WAS PLACED WHERE THE OVERLAP APPEARED GREATEST FROM THE  
DAY 2 AND DAY 3 WPC QPF.   
  
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM DAY 2 WILL BE EASING  
EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DURING THE PERIOD.   
WHILE RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO DIMINISH A BIT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ONCE  
AGAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE  
PRIMARY FOCUS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THAT GETS THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL ON DAY 2...BUT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN  
TENNESSEE MAY HAVE 48-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5  
INCHES DESPITE MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EACH DAY.  FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE.  
  
ELSEWHERE, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCREASING SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR  
NORTH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT AND WHEN/WHERE THE  
NEXT ROUND INITIATES.  AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE WAS  
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MODERATE RISK AREA EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS  
PRETTY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PHASE OF THIS LONG-TERM  
RAINFALL EVENT.  A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN  
TIER OF STATES ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. DID NOT  
EXTEND EITHER THE SLIGHT RISK OR MARGINAL RISK AREAS EAST OF THE  
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR  
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS.  
  
BECAUSE THIS IS A LONG-TERM EVENT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED  
ALONG OR NEAR THE AXIS WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT  
DAY 2 AND DAY 3 RAINFALL FORECAST, REFER TO QPF AND DISCUSSIONS  
FROM THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT  
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.  
  

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  • Mr Bob pinned this topic
thru this weekends system..note: two days ago models wanted to blast a huge high from Canada down shutting this off..got delayed.....now trends are for more rain next week at least for southern parts of your area ....  
GEFSMW_prec_meanprecacc_162.png&key=09a1eb30fa5a41531b8500926edee73fb7acb921d26d6ba59a80c7d9111d3305
 
We don't need more rain down here in Chattanooga. If we continue in this pattern it will be bad for farmers especially. By the way, where is your location JanetJanet?

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

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13 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

We don't need more rain down here in Chattanooga. If we continue in this pattern it will be bad for farmers especially. By the way, where is your location JanetJanet?

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk
 

I'm in Peoria IL..I just track and follow extreme weather events as a hobby(30+ years) , (ie  the Oroville Dam mess and houston Harvey flooding) this is a unique situation...due to the record wet last year...and the fact soils are wet and runoff already very high...and with this system dumping so much water over a large area..at least it isn't later in the spring and lakes are closer to their summer pool already...the flip side that no green vegetation to help soaked up some of it yet..

the pattern better break after this ....

12z GVSFV3 nails Kentucky lake area 6-7 inches and you guys still 4-5 ....

 

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with some for rain factored in ..I believe 48 hours so thru 12z weds... creast raised to 53 feet from 52 feet at Cairo next monday

 

will TVA hold more  water back now or later?  looks like they are not slowing down the outflow that much ..

huge amounts of water are planned to be dumped from the TN river into Kentucky lake this week

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

with some for rain factored in ..I believe 48 hours so thru 12z weds... creast raised to 53 feet from 52 feet at Cairo next monday

 

will TVA hold more  water back now or later?  looks like they are not slowing down the outflow that much ..

huge amounts of water are planned to be dumped from the TN river into Kentucky lake this week

Nickajack is running wide open...nearing 1 mil gallon a sec. 

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13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

EPS looks to follow the GEFS/Euro Op in increasing totals...hate to be TVA looking at the data. Its a lose/lose situation nearly.

I assume  (EURO) that some of that precip over central MS and AL is from the later system next week...better not have a north trend with that into the TVA watershed again

 

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  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

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