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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, NAM has frozen for about 80% of the storm.  Nasty freezing rain sometime between 18z and 22.  But that's a unicorn.  It's not going to be that bad with heavy rain and temps at 31-33 degrees.

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

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2 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

Wes is here, everybody drink.  It's officially a party.

And you are correct, that ludicrous map does include sleet.   If we can manage 2-4 before the changeover, I'm good.

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

Come on .. can you at least give me a hour to pretend like it is real?

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Deleted the earlier post to make sure that the GEFS wasn't showing any snow/mix Friday, which it isn't, so I think this still checks out.

GEFS has been steadily increasing the amount of "snow" shown in its algorithm. If you use this as a way of simply showing the amount of mixed, semi-wintry precip that might occur, it seems to bode decently. Whatever its usefulness, I still always like to see it showing increased potential.

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5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

Pivotal maps do a good job teasing out how much would be snow vs sleet/freezing rain.  Still a nice storm verbatim.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wes is here, everybody drink.  It's officially a party.

And you are correct, that ludicrous map does include sleet.   If we can manage 2-4 before the changeover, I'm good.

What are the chances of the “thump” over achieving like we’ve seen many times around here!?

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Feel like we have to hash this out every time, but the NCEP models generate a snow water equivalent that is generated from all frozen hydrometeors (snow + sleet).   TT then applies a 10:1 ratio to that, which does not work if you have a good amount of sleet.     But TT also displays total positive snow depth change which is what the model actually thinks is accumulating on the ground.   It sometimes runs a bit low, but it's WAY, WAY more representative of the model is doing in this mix (or wet snow) events.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Probably will over perform somewhere in the forum area, but like psu mentioned earlier, it'll likely be a game time placement.

Seemed like last week the jackpot area was Bel airand havre de grace.. I guess the cad retreated sw to ne. I had about 8 hours of freezing rain in catonsville. I am thinking we might see a similar gradient.

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15 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

You had mentioned in your cwg article that there is sort of a max potential with the current pattern/ set up.  And the max potential is clearly nothing like what the fv3/ nam output looks like. What is it about the pattern that leads you to this conclusion?  Is it the hp placement/ the fact that it slides.. is it the antecent air mass?  Is the lack of blocking?  The fact that we really aren't seeing transfer to the coast? 

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Last nights Euro and everything so far on the 12Z runs points to a 6-8 snow to some ice type event in the far NW burbs. The Euro, FV3 and NAM's are beautiful out this way. As modeled it has a chance to be the biggest storm of the year for my area and would get me to climo. Wish this was tomorrow nights runs. But pretty good agreement for 3 days out.

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Valentine's 2007 was essentially a glacier for many many days after the storm. This coming event is much closer to the last week on the spectrum than anything close to Valentine's 2007...

Judging by the thermals, I think it will be better than last week, but certainly a far cry from '07. The high needs to be more stout for that to occur and that pig SE ridge isn't doing any favors. Still could get pretty glacier like for NW of 95 with the typical areas in the cross-hairs. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Judging by the thermals, I think it will be better than last week, but certainly a far cry from '07. The high needs to be more stout for that to occur and that pig SE ridge isn't doing any favors. Still could get pretty glacier like for NW of 95 with the typical areas in the cross-hairs. 

I agree with it being better than last week. But yeah - we aren't getting another '07 without STRONG CAD. 

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