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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Faster than 6z, a little slower than 0z.  Not a bad place to be so far.

Dark blues on the doorstep at 69 hours

Nice run and NAM doubles down

 

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22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agree I would eat a bowl of cat puke for snow.  I’m pretty committed to this process. 

 

25 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The Chuck storm? Whatever makes it snow!

Okay I had to register just to say would this make this  an   UP CHUCK Storm  ?

 

Okay I will crawl under my desk now.

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1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Nice run and NAM doubles down

 

lol, NAM has frozen for about 80% of the storm.  Nasty freezing rain sometime between 18z and 22.  But that's a unicorn.  It's not going to be that bad with heavy rain and temps at 31-33 degrees.

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Just now, wtkidz said:

 

Okay I had to register just to say would this make this  an   UP CHUCK Storm  ?

 

Okay I will crawl under my desk now.

For this, I am unregistering you.

ETA: that was a joke btw.  Or was it?

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

still a start time of around 12z.  Thumping at 15z then the switch at 18z.   Still holding on to cold surface temps at 18z, but of course there's a warm layer above 850.

OK...so we're looking at on the order of ~6 hours of decent snow from essentially all models at this point, with the NAM perhaps most aggressive.  I presume we'll flip from mix/slop to all rain toward evening Wednesday at some point.

(Just saw your later message, NAM keeps us icy into late afternoon apparently!)

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

LOL, NAM clown map.  It's fun to look at tho, so let's not act like we're not all looking.  For this storm, the NAM is the new Meso-FV3

Namwennied

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

I bet the nam thermals are closer to right then wrong.  Keeps most below freezing through 0z Thursday  ...and I'm betting it will be longer . 

If that is correct, late Wednesday afternoon would be a nightmare in terms of ice...especially those deeper in the cold surface air.

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We lose 850s around 19-20z on the NAM. 750s are gone by 16-17z, so looking like sleet. Surface hangs on til about 21z along 95. 

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28 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

What do the different colors mean?

I am not sure about the image above.. but this is one we have all been waiting for... 

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

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It has a 16 over top of me. So the NAM is by far the model that we should follow for this storm.  

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The “Click to Animate” storm...coming soon to a backyard theater near you. Starring Two Buck Chuck. :lol:

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On 2/16/2019 at 10:24 AM, eurojosh said:

I'm counting on this storm. Thinking about taking Tues-Thurs off and heading either to Blue Knob (CAD) or Timberline (Coastal) or not and going to fing work (cutter).

Pulling the trigger on Blue Knob. Wednesday's gonna be beast.

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47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, NAM has frozen for about 80% of the storm.  Nasty freezing rain sometime between 18z and 22.  But that's a unicorn.  It's not going to be that bad with heavy rain and temps at 31-33 degrees.

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

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2 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

Wes is here, everybody drink.  It's officially a party.

And you are correct, that ludicrous map does include sleet.   If we can manage 2-4 before the changeover, I'm good.

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Well, GFS is quicker vs 2 previous runs.  I'll assume the changeover will be the same...probably only 1 panel of snow.

 

Man, what I would give for the High to be 200 miles wester

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

Come on .. can you at least give me a hour to pretend like it is real?

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Deleted the earlier post to make sure that the GEFS wasn't showing any snow/mix Friday, which it isn't, so I think this still checks out.

GEFS has been steadily increasing the amount of "snow" shown in its algorithm. If you use this as a way of simply showing the amount of mixed, semi-wintry precip that might occur, it seems to bode decently. Whatever its usefulness, I still always like to see it showing increased potential.

ezgif-1-0ea2c8d1b0f4.gif

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5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

Pivotal maps do a good job teasing out how much would be snow vs sleet/freezing rain.  Still a nice storm verbatim.

image.thumb.png.6ab0f2fc787883e578755988525e364f.png

image.thumb.png.ba0740326d116436ae85a53bc347cbf5.png

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wes is here, everybody drink.  It's officially a party.

And you are correct, that ludicrous map does include sleet.   If we can manage 2-4 before the changeover, I'm good.

What are the chances of the “thump” over achieving like we’ve seen many times around here!?

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Still snowing at HR 78 (18z) according to Instant Weather Maps on 12z GFS... started around HR 70 (09z/10z). 

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Feel like we have to hash this out every time, but the NCEP models generate a snow water equivalent that is generated from all frozen hydrometeors (snow + sleet).   TT then applies a 10:1 ratio to that, which does not work if you have a good amount of sleet.     But TT also displays total positive snow depth change which is what the model actually thinks is accumulating on the ground.   It sometimes runs a bit low, but it's WAY, WAY more representative of the model is doing in this mix (or wet snow) events.

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