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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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The GFS has a known bias to scour cold air out too fast with CAD situations. Now the Strong waa could certainly do that, but tend to favor the solutions that hold the cold air in longer with decent front end thump. 

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25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

FV3 has snow breaking out by 6z Wednesday in DC.  Thump to ice to dry slot.  I’m a fan.

The weenie in me says this will be the new OP so might as well toss the old GFS.

FV3 will officially take over the GFS in March. 

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

FV3 will officially take over the GFS in March. 

Are they still going to run the old GFS at that point?. 

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7 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Are they still going to run the old GFS at that point?. 

the FV3/Parallel GFS will become the operational GFS in March... 
 
GFS version 15.0 (aka FV3-GFS) was slated to go operational on January 24.  Then the shutdown happened.  The new proposed implementation date is March 20. 

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8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:
the FV3/Parallel GFS will become the operational GFS in March... 
 
GFS version 15.0 (aka FV3-GFS) was slated to go operational on January 24.  Then the shutdown happened.  The new proposed implementation date is March 20. 

Thank you. The thing i was wondering is if what’s the operational GFS now will still be run at all after March 20th. 

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1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Thank you. The thing i was wondering is if what’s the operational GFS now will still be run at all after March 20th. 

         for a day or two, until it's confirmed that the implementation "worked", but it won't be available to the public

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Just now, high risk said:

         for a day or two, until it's confirmed that the implementation "worked", but it won't be available to the public

Thank you very much. 

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Thank you very much. 
If it wasnt for trump...we would have the best snow model in the world. I'm ignoring the OP gfs from now on
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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

On which model?

Ensembles have been showing some hints of split energy . Actually gfs at 0z is a decent hit in northern areas Fri

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Used to use the paid sites but just going off of h5 and 850 maps on Euro through 72, it would have to be decent. 850 temps are colder than last night's 0z which was already a good run, ridge a bit lower heights in the E. 

The SE ridge is more prevalent at hour 96 vs last nights 0z, but 850 temps pretty similar through our area overall. I'll wait for someone to post the actual maps/outcome. 

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Strange run. Colder at the surface even though the main slug of moisture has shifted north. This has the potential to be pretty sick in the elevated exurbs. 

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3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Strange run. Colder at the surface even though the main slug of moisture has shifted north. This has the potential to be pretty sick in the elevated exurbs. 

Have any worthwhile images to share? Did appear to be colder at the sfc based on anamolies..

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Euro bring in light snow around 12z.  Stays snow through 18z based on 850s. Loudoun, Southern Frederick through Baltimore 6 inches using clown maps.  DC 4.

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Just now, Weather Will said:

Euro bring in light snow around 12z.  Stays snow through 18z based on 850s. Loudoun, Southern Frederick through Baltimore 6 inches using clown maps.  DC 4.

Rain after or mixed for a bit?

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Rain after or mixed for a bit?

You can always view full euro runs for free  at weather.us . It’s only out to hr 64 so far so it’s a little slow but still works. 

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28 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Rain after or mixed for a bit?

Getting closer to a straight snowstorm. This isn't so bad for a Euro signal. 

f120-2.gif

Impressive digging here too. Maybe an ice storm (if we didn't not have ice storms these days). 

f144-1.gif

(Maybe a bad interpretation but there is a lot of change possible I think..)

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Surface temps transition above freeze no between 18z and 6 z everywhere.  I am not skilled enough to say whether there is much frozen during this time frame except in Nortgern MD

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Light snow overspreads area at 5am Wednesday on 0z euro. Begins to mix dc to Balt between 12-3pm. Still mostly snow at 3pm Balt to the northeast. By 6pm the mix/rain line is running 95. By 9pm moderate rain with mixing in favored areas north and west. Rain everywhere south of md/pa border from 12am-9am. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019021700/maryland/significant-weather/20190221-0600z.html

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12 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Light snow overspreads area at 5am Wednesday on 0z euro. Begins to mix dc to Balt between 12-3pm. Still mostly snow at 3pm Balt to the northeast. By 6pm the mix/rain line is running 95. By 9pm moderate rain with mixing in favored areas north and west. Rain everywhere south of md/pa border from 12am-9am. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019021700/maryland/significant-weather/20190221-0600z.html

Try to ignore the weather.us snow depth of 8-12”+ Westminster to Frederick/Winchester. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Rain after or mixed for a bit?

Location dependent. The usual places have a high ceiling. Not enthusiastic about the coastal plain. I’d be happy with 2-4” and flip.  

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Getting closer to a straight snowstorm. This isn't so bad for a Euro signal. 
f120-2.gif&key=3ad7c8fc776c845e96c9274d6621d9d565d5dde5b70b99d72be94435dde68f62
Impressive digging here too. Maybe an ice storm (if we didn't not have ice storms these days). 
f144-1.gif&key=32edcee5dee34061b3e8b482be2cdce0073f7a5840647f478b2c9dd6306e4c8e
(Maybe a bad interpretation but there is a lot of change possible I think..)
Click to animate?

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