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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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18z gfs is a hold imo. Didn't trend toward a euro solution. Add in "the GFS is terrible with CAD setups" and we're all good! Happy hour's hasn't been too bad today. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, I dunno yet...I'm only at 66.  I wanna see two panels of snow!

Nevermind...panels were slow loading for me.  Yeah, it's a good run so far...2 full panels of snow..looks moderate at least too

Seemed like every layer was a tick colder(probably due to the axis of heavy stuff shifting around).  Somebody is going to get smoked Wednesday morning.

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Gfs looks good. This is snow depth change which is more conservative. Take half that for algorithm purposes and it’s still around 4” of sno for dc. That’s a good solid thump. Don’t like how it’s during the day but if rates are good the. It won’t matter 

 

47F768CC-1785-46A4-8A9E-EEA116F99A12.png

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The signals are all there for a significant event. Details will fine tune over time. We have it all here... Cold High, CAD (always underdone in most guidance), abundant moisture source out of the Gulf, strong waa signature. If it’s not a coastal, this is the second best way we get our snow and ice in good quantities. 

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

The late week period is sneaky and worth keeping an eye on.

Yeah, it keeps kind of popping up on different runs here and there...

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15 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said:

I hope this is right :snowing:

gfs_asnowd_neus_14.png

That's the wrong  map. Your supposed to show them that shows 15 inches. Come on now???

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11 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

The signals are all there for a significant event. Details will fine tune over time. We have it all here... Cold High, CAD (always underdone in most guidance), abundant moisture source out of the Gulf, strong waa signature. If it’s not a coastal, this is the second best way we get our snow and ice in good quantities. 

Yep.  Pretty uncomplicated.  We do uncomplicated well.   Just run a slug of moisture into cold air.  

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

FV3 maps

snku_acc.us_ma.png

zr_acc.us_ma.png

This one is better.. I guess. Don't they have one that shows all the sleet as snow?

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Yep.  Pretty uncomplicated.  We do uncomplicated well.   Just run a slug of moisture into cold air.  

Hey in all seriousness.. I am concerned about the euro. I get it. Simple is simple.. but what happens when fire hose goes into the Ohio valley?

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13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Weather Channel App gives me 5-8” on Wednesday after 1” Tuesday night.   Wish it was right. 

Mine 50 miles south is  4-8" no way  do i think that will happen. 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

FV3 is ideal...comes in fast, heavy thump all night, heavy snow then ice. 

The thing is.. and you can correct me if I am wrong ERS.. but we can get a quick slug of 0.75 qpf as snow with this sort of set up... And if that happens.. I would not be surprised if someone gets 6-8 inches.

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16 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

The signals are all there for a significant event. Details will fine tune over time. We have it all here... Cold High, CAD (always underdone in most guidance), abundant moisture source out of the Gulf, strong waa signature. If it’s not a coastal, this is the second best way we get our snow and ice in good quantities. 

 

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Yep.  Pretty uncomplicated.  We do uncomplicated well.   Just run a slug of moisture into cold air.  

I wouldn't call this totally uncomplicated...and that's only because of the se ridge...

Just now, PDIII said:

Hey in all seriousness.. I am concerned about the euro. I get it. Simple is simple.. but what happens when fire hose goes into the Ohio valley?

That's my concern as well. If the other models aren't accounting for just how much that ridge may flex...we may see them fall in line with the euro in the next day or so. That seems to be the one way this goes wrong.

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Just now, PDIII said:

The thing is.. and you can correct me if I am wrong ERS.. but we can get a quick slug of 0.75 qpf as snow with this sort of set up... And if that happens.. I would not be surprised if someone gets 6-8 inches.

That is attainable. 

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