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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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15 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol

The hot heavy part is the key here...which is why we gotta hope the se ridge plays nice!

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

NAM BL looks great. Dewpoints in the teens upstream, strong CAD, and strong waa incoming. Get ready for good thump. 

Looking at the overall condition configuration of the system at 60 looks like it might pull a euro

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I actually don't mind sleet.  It has much longer staying power on the ground than snow does.  Of course, since it goes to 50 degrees the next day, that might be moot.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Congrats Ohio. Enjoy your thump.

Yup, they stole our thump, damn them!   Eh, I'm not sweating it..we still have several more runs before game time.  No other model has that gap the NAM has, so it's a wait and see.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Congrats Ohio. Enjoy your thump.

We are either losing our thump or it was never real to begin with 

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Looks like 1-3” of snow for cities before turning to ice on the NAM. Still 2.5 days. Plenty of time to go either way. The nam does weird stuff with its precip presentation on random runs sometimes even right before game time. We’re still dessecting the end of the Nam run. Like how it goes snow/mix dryslot for most. That would be awesome to not get hrs of rain. 

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Well, this was my worry from post yesterday. Huge surge of moisture out of the Gulf with a pretty solid high in place, but in the wrong position! This allows for significant WAA to pump north and warm the mids to shift the concern to ice. There's a front end thump with a thin band from the low level frontogen on the leading edge of the LLJ entering the area, but after 3-6 hours, temps aloft begin to warm above freezing, shifting the focus to sleet and freezing rain. Meanwhile, the high trending stronger on guidance to the northeast pegs light surface flow out of the east, so the surface will struggle to climb in this scenario. That wedge will be hard to eradicate on that kind of setup. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Well, this was my worry from post yesterday. Huge surge of moisture out of the Gulf with a pretty solid high in place, but in the wrong position! This allows for significant WAA to pump north and warm the mids to shift the concern to ice. There's a front end thump with a thin band from the low level frontogen on the leading edge of the LLJ entering the area, but after 3-6 hours, temps aloft begin to warm above freezing, shifting the focus to sleet and freezing rain. Meanwhile, the high trending stronger on guidance to the northeast pegs light surface flow out of the east, so the surface will struggle to climb in this scenario. That wedge will be hard to eradicate on that kind of setup. 

Yeah, that CAD on the NAM is vicious and actually keeps getting better.   We trade one thing for the other I guess.

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If the thump stops moving nw I’d love the NAM. A couple short hours of heavy snow, then sleet/ZR, followed by minimal rain. Having 12+ hours of cold rain after wouldn’t be ideal 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Problem is the direct aim of initial precip keeps moving (windshield).  12z had more snow..this run more...crap.  Initial snow is pretty moderate/heavy tho

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-17 at 3.47.27 PM.png

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