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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

My guess is probably a good amount of sleet/rain with temps right around freezing.

I don't think snow maps are going to be very useful for this event. SV gives me and you 6"....To me it looks like DC gets like 0.4" QPF of snow/mix, before flipping, but even then we don't torch...33-35 overnight...

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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

The king just said sit down :unsure:

depends where you live and what your expectations are...If some folks up I-270 get 6-8" and then ice, that's a pretty good storm imo

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

depends where you live and what your expectations are...If some folks up I-270 get 6-8" and then ice, that's a pretty good storm imo

0z had dc north 4-8” with some 8-10 lollies.

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Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month.

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Ok first of all those Kutchera maps will bust low where the banding sets up. Seen it every time. Where the heavy southwest to northeast band sets up the dynamic cooling and mixing will keep the column just cold enough for snow during the heaviest thump. The kuchera is seeing the marginal temps and going assuming mixing and going super low on ratios. Where that .5+ qpf area Wednesday morning sets up will get better ratios than that. 

That said the real problem with the euro is it misses DC area to the NW with the heavy band of precip. It has the same look as the other guidance but it’s aiming it into southern PA instead of at DC area.  It’s even aimed a little north of where I want to see it for me. It’s north of all other guidance with that right now. 

ADAE1E38-FF38-43C3-8CCA-4A50F3CA9940.thumb.png.7945636f71137bd8738d6d14de8e1fa2.png

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Just now, Quasievil said:

Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month.

Well if you had to put money on it then the Euro is the number you would play.  Nice if it would have held better from 0z.  SE ridge is snake eyes.  

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I'd be much more bearish if we had to create our own cold air.  This isn't a garden variety air mass...Much of NY and New England will be in the single digits and below zero Wednesday morning...

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7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'd be much more bearish if we had to create our own cold air.  This isn't a garden variety air mass...Much of NY and New England will be in the single digits and below zero Wednesday morning...

Agree...models have been showing this potential since day 7 and it's...not surprisingly so.. gotten stronger with the Wedge as we near . This is a wide ranging warning event in the making. The last storm was no where near as good of a setup and many areas i70 north still got 2-7" of snow followed by a respectable ice event.  48 hours out from that event models had 40s for highs here . I got to 33. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Reasonable expectation for cities is 1-3 at this point.  2 to 4 isn't out of the question.

Agree, sitting good right now

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22 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

IMO SE ridge has gotten bigger each run for days. Primary has moved further west for days. The way we fail is the waa thump stays to our west or doesn’t get going until it’s to our north/west. The further the primary is to our west, the more likely this could be the case. Just some thoughts I have at the moment. Really hope the euro isn’t right or on to something. 

I agree...the biggest fail threat is that stj moisture  feed gets directed to our NW. 

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2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Is Chill still “holding out” (meaning like football haha) for this storm?? Are there at least ‘contract talks’ ongoing??? 

Not sure what Robert is up to, but not getting invested in a storm that doesn't start until wednesday morning, is what most well-adjusted humans would do....Then there is us

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Reasonable expectation for cities is 1-3 at this point.  2 to 4 isn't out of the question.

I was about to call 1-3 inches a bit low of a forcast...but after what someone said about the se ridge...might end up being right, unfortunately...oh that dang ridge!!

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24 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

depends where you live and what your expectations are...If some folks up I-270 get 6-8" and then ice, that's a pretty good storm imo

It’s a level 1 storm for vdot in nova. Not enough to bring all my plow trucks out of hiding....=disappointment :lol:

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok first of all those Kutchera maps will bust low where the banding sets up. Seen it every time. Where the heavy southwest to northeast band sets up the dynamic cooling and mixing will keep the column just cold enough for snow during the heaviest thump. The kuchera is seeing the marginal temps and going assuming mixing and going super low on ratios. Where that .5+ qpf area Wednesday morning sets up will get better ratios than that. 

That said the real problem with the euro is it misses DC area to the NW with the heavy band of precip. It has the same look as the other guidance but it’s aiming it into southern PA instead of at DC area.  It’s even aimed a little north of where I want to see it for me. It’s north of all other guidance with that right now. 

ADAE1E38-FF38-43C3-8CCA-4A50F3CA9940.thumb.png.7945636f71137bd8738d6d14de8e1fa2.png

Would this...be an example of the fail scenario where the se ridge bumps the waa too far northwest?

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Here is the hour by hour.  It’s mostly just light snow until we get better rates right before change over.  There is definitely a window for accumulation, we just need to juice up the waa through the area. 10z-15/16z looks good.

Edit: they are out of order and 10z-13z is just light stuff

B31E7FD0-A89E-44E0-95D6-474A1E2A68AD.png

B66C70BF-DD28-44E7-B64E-98356F3B76FD.png

B2A54FD4-9690-4964-81FC-114744E963EE.png

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Just now, LP08 said:

Here is the hour by hour.  It’s mostly just light snow until we get better rates right before change over.  There is definitely a window for accumulation, we just need to juice up the waa through the area. 10z-15/16z looks good.

 

B31E7FD0-A89E-44E0-95D6-474A1E2A68AD.png

B66C70BF-DD28-44E7-B64E-98356F3B76FD.png

B2A54FD4-9690-4964-81FC-114744E963EE.png

The main moisture plume is pushed to our north and west. SE ridge is flexing...just another way to fail...we always find a way lol 

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

VDOT brined the roads in Fairfax Co last Thursday for our weekend storm that went south. 

A classic example of wasting tax payer money. And another example of “use the budget or lose it next year” 

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SW PA gets the short end of the snow stick often so glad for them.  I am trying new tactic of positive thinking.  

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