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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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There is going to be a good thump with this on the front end, likely burst of heavy snow for most areas. The waa is strong. I would lean toward the guidance that holds the CAD in longer. Many times there can be a surprise with snow amounts in these situations...higher than lower before the changeover. As for freezing rain, given the higher precipitation rates and temps only barely sub 32, likely not a major icing event for all but perhaps the I-81 corridor and into Frederick and Loudoun. For significant icing you need lower precip rates, temps at least 28F, and a longer drawn out event. Those are damaging to trees and power lines. 

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

There is going to be a good thump with this on the front end, likely burst of heavy snow for most areas. The waa is strong. I would lean toward the guidance that holds the CAD in longer. Many times there can be a surprise with snow amounts in these situations...higher than lower before the changeover. As for freezing rain, given the higher precipitation rates and temps only barely sub 32, likely not a major icing event for all but perhaps the I-81 corridor and into Frederick and Loudoun. For significant icing you need lower precip rates, temps at least 28F, and a longer drawn out event. Those are damaging to trees and power lines. 

I was at 32 for pretty much the entire duration of last week and several branches came down. Power outages .

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Someone is going to get a good thump from this and be surprised by totals. There will be a 50 mile wide area west southwest to east northeast that easily gets warning criteria snow/ice.  Around that can be some accumulation but rather disappointing compared to who ends up in that band. It’s way to soon to pin down. And don’t assume it’s nw if the city. That band ended up right over DC in late Feb 2007. (Not the v-day storm the one after). I’ve seen it aim into central VA before too. Yea climo favors the typical spots but I’ve seen it buck that trend in these setups before. Just have to wait and see where it ends up. Gfs is trending north though. I would say the max stripe likely ends up somewhere between EZF and southern PA.  The goalposts are narrowing, and I think everyone in that boundary gets some snow but still too much time to pin down where the 5”+ “shock” zone is and the more mundane 1-4” area around that is. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Someone is going to get a good thump from this and be surprised by totals. There will be a 50 mile wide area west southwest to east northeast that easily gets warning criteria snow/ice.  Around that can be some accumulation but rather disappointing compared to who ends up in that band. It’s way to soon to pin down. And don’t assume it’s nw if the city. That band ended up right over DC in late Feb 2007. (Not the v-day storm the one after). I’ve seen it aim into central VA before too. Yea climo favors the typical spots but I’ve seen it buck that trend in these setups before. Just have to wait and see where it ends up. Gfs is trending north though. I would say the max stripe likely ends up somewhere between EZF and southern PA.  The goalposts are narrowing, and I think everyone in that boundary gets some snow but still too much time to pin down where the 5”+ “shock” zone is and the more mundane 1-4” area around that is. 

Let’s be honest. We all know who’s going to jackpot. The one that shall not be named who’s MIA...but is reading this right now while laying on his couch in his Sunday best candy apple red speedo. 

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Someone is going to get a good thump from this and be surprised by totals. There will be a 50 mile wide area west southwest to east northeast that easily gets warning criteria snow/ice.  Around that can be some accumulation but rather disappointing compared to who ends up in that band. It’s way to soon to pin down. And don’t assume it’s nw if the city. That band ended up right over DC in late Feb 2007. (Not the v-day storm the one after). I’ve seen it aim into central VA before too. Yea climo favors the typical spots but I’ve seen it buck that trend in these setups before. Just have to wait and see where it ends up. Gfs is trending north though. I would say the max stripe likely ends up somewhere between EZF and southern PA.  The goalposts are narrowing, and I think everyone in that boundary gets some snow but still too much time to pin down where the 5”+ “shock” zone is and the more mundane 1-4” area around that is. 

I can tell ya where it wont be :lol:

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1 hour ago, Rvarookie said:

I don’t mind if I keep missing the snow, but these cold rain hits are going to make me go Ji. Just give me the dry cold and spare me please

My exact sentiment.  I feel your pain, believe me.  I was looking at the almanac on the back page of the Sun sports this morning and noticed that the least amount of precipitation for February was 0.33" in 2002.   Man, I wish we could have a month like that, preferably March but the realist in me knows the odds of that are next to zero.   Not with this pattern of relentless precipitation that's been ongoing since a year ago.   At least you got one decent snowstorm this winter.  

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