Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
 Share

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Conversely, the FV3 is more typical of what one would expect.

Kuchera
CHO: 2.6” + 0.31” FRZA
DCA: 5.7” + 0.27” FRZA
FDK: 12.3” + 0.5” FRZA
BWI: 8.7” + 0.24” FRZA

Big differences.

OKV: 10.8" + 0.73" FZRA

Should we start working on the calculation for how much to reduce this model's totals when it goes live, the way we always did with the ETA/ NAM ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

You are always a ton of fun to have around. Apparently the FV-3 doesn't make a difference to you. 

I barely post. No clue why you have decided it's your job to police up the forum. If you want to throw a ton of weight behind the NAM, ICON, and horrid FV3, feel free to wax your shovel now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, PhineasC said:

Nothing is "sealed" but since when are you buying the NAM and ICON?

I'm not, although we all know that the NAM handles CAD better as we get close in.  Just wondering why an unconfirmed run of the GFS means much right now.   If I had to bet, Euro would probably be closer to the GFS than the NAM/Icon...but imma wait until it runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, PhineasC said:

I barely post. No clue why you have decided it's your job to police up the forum. If you want to throw a ton of weight behind the NAM, ICON, and horrid FV3, feel free to wax your shovel now.

If 18,973 posts are barely posting, i would hate to see you actually start posting. 

  • Haha 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, schinz said:
  • The NAM did well up this way with last week's event.  There is no recent to discount it here this week.

The NAM can be trusted beyond 48-60 if and only if it either agrees with the Euro/EPS and or consistently shows almost the same idea run to run.  If it changes notably at all from one run to the next in that range it’s generally out to lunch 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS was fine. It’s handle on CAD is well known, so you have to adjust to compensate. Euro run is important to see how it handles the general Synoptics. NAM has been consistent and so has ICON/FV-3. I’m not an ICON fan at all, but consistency is always a plus. The front end thump is certainly still in play, but I’d be a little wary of the changeover to sleet/zr a little quicker than what is currently modeled once we close in on the event. Stronger CAD is helping a lot. Need that to remain. No matter how this evolves, a high impact event is increasingly likely. NW of the fall line will likely maintain 100% frozen in this setup.


.

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The GFS was fine. It’s handle on CAD is well known, so you have to adjust to compensate. Euro run is important to see how it handles the general Synoptics. NAM has been consistent and so has ICON/FV-3. I’m not an ICON fan at all, but consistency is always a plus. The front end thump is certainly still in play, but I’d be a little wary of the changeover to sleet/zr a little quicker than what is currently modeled once we close in on the event. Stronger CAD is helping a lot. Need that to remain. No matter how this evolves, a high impact event is increasingly likely. NW of the fall line will likely maintain 100% frozen in this setup.


.

Above 600’ NW of the cities could kill it. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

OKV: 10.8" + 0.73" FZRA

Should we start working on the calculation for how much to reduce this model's totals when it goes live, the way we always did with the ETA/ NAM ?

It is just as wet as the nam. But it's got screwed up ratios. I am still sticking with 5-8 throughout the region with a coating of ice on top. That is just what our climo would say for events like this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My thinking on this remains the same from earlier today, near classic CAD setup, strong front end thump with high rates, then icing, locally significant west of 95 and especially Loudoun, Frederick to I-81. Solid 2-4 in the cities, 4-8 over the suburbs, jackpot 10” yet to be determined. Stick to guidance that better handles CAD which would be high resolution. Details to be worked out. Things can change, but the signal is there. I’m all in. 

  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

My thinking on this remains the same from earlier today, near classic CAD setup, strong front end thump with high rates, then icing, locally significant west of 95 and especially Loudoun, Frederick to I-81. Solid 2-4 in the cities, 4-8 over the suburbs, jackpot 10” yet to be determined. Stick to guidance that better handles CAD which would be high resolution. Details to be worked out. Things can change, but the signal is there. I’m all in.  

You're never this bullish.  This is hUge!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...