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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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As usual it’s a bit hard to decipher, but I think HM’s tweet here relates to what the GFS might be hinting at. 

 if you’re in the band, you’re busting high with good ratios and dynamics.  GFS wants to put it in north-central VA, NAM has it between DC and the M/D. If you’re not, it’s gonna be weak sauce with sh*tty ratios. 

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As some have mentioned, the band(s) of stronger rates of snow won’t be fully known until gametime... so not surprised the models, like the GFS, continue to move around a bit and place heavier areas of snow at different places. That’s why they are used as guidance, but not gospel. GFS still produced good snows for Wednesday. 

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs is worst model for cad....its not useful once we get into high res range

The GFS is just killing the shortwave that triggers the WAA earlier.  The NAM/ICON do it too but much later.  The GFS is also not as strong with the SER so the disturbance tracks more south.  I would trust the NAM/ICON more for your area right now 

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