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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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Back to the NAM for a minute, the stoutness of the cold is really solid.  These are the 925mb temps at 21z, long after we've lost the upper levels.  To this point 1" of QPF has fallen out west and ~0.8" in the 95 corridor.  The NAM really has almost this entire event as frozen of one sort or another.

925s.thumb.GIF.30c5eefd04986aa1edbe787b75de4a5d.GIF

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, I dunno yet...I'm only at 66.  I wanna see two panels of snow!

Nevermind...panels were slow loading for me.  Yeah, it's a good run so far...2 full panels of snow..looks moderate at least too

Seemed like every layer was a tick colder(probably due to the axis of heavy stuff shifting around).  Somebody is going to get smoked Wednesday morning.

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The signals are all there for a significant event. Details will fine tune over time. We have it all here... Cold High, CAD (always underdone in most guidance), abundant moisture source out of the Gulf, strong waa signature. If it’s not a coastal, this is the second best way we get our snow and ice in good quantities. 

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11 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

The signals are all there for a significant event. Details will fine tune over time. We have it all here... Cold High, CAD (always underdone in most guidance), abundant moisture source out of the Gulf, strong waa signature. If it’s not a coastal, this is the second best way we get our snow and ice in good quantities. 

Yep.  Pretty uncomplicated.  We do uncomplicated well.   Just run a slug of moisture into cold air.  

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Yep.  Pretty uncomplicated.  We do uncomplicated well.   Just run a slug of moisture into cold air.  

Hey in all seriousness.. I am concerned about the euro. I get it. Simple is simple.. but what happens when fire hose goes into the Ohio valley?

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