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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Simplified answer is warm air is being spread from the southeast over the Atlantic towards our region.

More on that. It’s often a High centered over Bermuda (Bermuda High) that can both help and hurt with winter patterns. Too strong and it forces storms to our west, often causing it to rain. Except in this case the strong cold HP is suppressing it over our area (exactly where remains to be seen). Alternatively if the High is not too strong it can help force storms up the coast instead of out to sea.

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Just now, Fozz said:

This has a good chance of being the biggest storm of the season for some of us.

I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol

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3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol

4.2" here. I think exceeding that is doable where I'm at.

And I totally agree.... even getting 2-3" in the span of a few hours is a lot more fun than 4-5" in 24 hours.

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15 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol

The hot heavy part is the key here...which is why we gotta hope the se ridge plays nice!

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

NAM BL looks great. Dewpoints in the teens upstream, strong CAD, and strong waa incoming. Get ready for good thump. 

Looking at the overall condition configuration of the system at 60 looks like it might pull a euro

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Looks like 1-3” of snow for cities before turning to ice on the NAM. Still 2.5 days. Plenty of time to go either way. The nam does weird stuff with its precip presentation on random runs sometimes even right before game time. We’re still dessecting the end of the Nam run. Like how it goes snow/mix dryslot for most. That would be awesome to not get hrs of rain. 

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Well, this was my worry from post yesterday. Huge surge of moisture out of the Gulf with a pretty solid high in place, but in the wrong position! This allows for significant WAA to pump north and warm the mids to shift the concern to ice. There's a front end thump with a thin band from the low level frontogen on the leading edge of the LLJ entering the area, but after 3-6 hours, temps aloft begin to warm above freezing, shifting the focus to sleet and freezing rain. Meanwhile, the high trending stronger on guidance to the northeast pegs light surface flow out of the east, so the surface will struggle to climb in this scenario. That wedge will be hard to eradicate on that kind of setup. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Well, this was my worry from post yesterday. Huge surge of moisture out of the Gulf with a pretty solid high in place, but in the wrong position! This allows for significant WAA to pump north and warm the mids to shift the concern to ice. There's a front end thump with a thin band from the low level frontogen on the leading edge of the LLJ entering the area, but after 3-6 hours, temps aloft begin to warm above freezing, shifting the focus to sleet and freezing rain. Meanwhile, the high trending stronger on guidance to the northeast pegs light surface flow out of the east, so the surface will struggle to climb in this scenario. That wedge will be hard to eradicate on that kind of setup. 

Yeah, that CAD on the NAM is vicious and actually keeps getting better.   We trade one thing for the other I guess.

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