Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
 Share

Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok first of all those Kutchera maps will bust low where the banding sets up. Seen it every time. Where the heavy southwest to northeast band sets up the dynamic cooling and mixing will keep the column just cold enough for snow during the heaviest thump. The kuchera is seeing the marginal temps and going assuming mixing and going super low on ratios. Where that .5+ qpf area Wednesday morning sets up will get better ratios than that. 

That said the real problem with the euro is it misses DC area to the NW with the heavy band of precip. It has the same look as the other guidance but it’s aiming it into southern PA instead of at DC area.  It’s even aimed a little north of where I want to see it for me. It’s north of all other guidance with that right now. 

ADAE1E38-FF38-43C3-8CCA-4A50F3CA9940.thumb.png.7945636f71137bd8738d6d14de8e1fa2.png

Would this...be an example of the fail scenario where the se ridge bumps the waa too far northwest?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the hour by hour.  It’s mostly just light snow until we get better rates right before change over.  There is definitely a window for accumulation, we just need to juice up the waa through the area. 10z-15/16z looks good.

Edit: they are out of order and 10z-13z is just light stuff

B31E7FD0-A89E-44E0-95D6-474A1E2A68AD.png

B66C70BF-DD28-44E7-B64E-98356F3B76FD.png

B2A54FD4-9690-4964-81FC-114744E963EE.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, LP08 said:

Here is the hour by hour.  It’s mostly just light snow until we get better rates right before change over.  There is definitely a window for accumulation, we just need to juice up the waa through the area. 10z-15/16z looks good.

 

B31E7FD0-A89E-44E0-95D6-474A1E2A68AD.png

B66C70BF-DD28-44E7-B64E-98356F3B76FD.png

B2A54FD4-9690-4964-81FC-114744E963EE.png

The main moisture plume is pushed to our north and west. SE ridge is flexing...just another way to fail...we always find a way lol 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

The main moisture plume is pushed to our north and west. SE ridge is flexing...just another way to fail...we always find a way lol 

I'm telling ya...We solve one problem with CAD...but now we gotta worry about not having enough moisture because of the se ridge! So it goes around here...fix one issue and another comes, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month.

First of all the fv3 actually is predicting about 8” in DC don’t exaggerate using that flawed snow map.  The snow depth map is much more accurate.  The kuchera has weird banding issues and the 10-1 has ice issues  the depth one seems to match up better with what it is actually showing if you do the work and look at temps at all levels and precip and figure it out yourself so this is a better idea what it’s really saying.  

1B11676A-432F-43AB-83FB-3DFB71A6DA9B.thumb.jpeg.f66b5419b196ec750fdc419692e71142.jpeg

that’s still really good...6-9” around DC  10-12 Far NW  but let’s not exaggerate it any more.  It’s bad enough!

But is it really that far off from the euro...both imply the change from snow to non snow is around 18z so just about all this precip before is snow.  The only difference is the euro aims that moisture feed slightly NW of the FV3.  At 72-84 hours that’s not a huge difference but since we are right in the area where that relatively narrow band is going to hit it matters big to us!  But look at them...not that different 

euro 24 hour qpf ending 18z924DBB4A-ED3D-4772-A3EB-C02917E3D4A9.thumb.png.37320656a706ab89ce58f8834440692f.png

fv3 24 hour qpf same time  

BE6BE256-C365-4E91-97AA-71D97F4369CF.thumb.jpeg.4ddcf25e70fe79aaa6eb45d45e326d2c.jpeg

they just disagree where that banding is aimed by about 40-50 miles.  That’s all.  

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

If it wasn’t the Euro then there would be less pessimism.  But it fails just like the rest.  Maybe less often.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

Think this run just kinda brought home a potential fail scenario that should taper our expectations for now...we gotta look for how much that se ridge flexes because, from what I understand, it could make a huge difference!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

Not at all.  I’m still enthused by this event even if I “only” see 1-2” followed by slop.  Fun to track and with the CAD setup, could be some nice surprises since we do well with CAD.  The biggest question mark is where the heaviest WAA sets up as PSU noted above.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

Nope. Just dissecting another possible solution. This possible solution is more of a fail solution for us. That’s why things haven’t sounded positive the last 30 mins. You come to a solution by disecting each model run and then applying knowledge of your climo/geography and tendencies with different storm setups that you’ve watched happen before.  Tracking is a marathon not a sprint. We win some and lose some. You win the same way you lose. Digesting many different model runs that arrive at a final solution. Not by reacting to each different model run as the only possible solution. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, look, more people freaking out over shifts in models 3 days away from a storm. Shocker. Truly unbelievable  

 

IF YOU WANT ALL SNOW, Every storm and a ton of it, move to buffalo or Vermont or Maine or the top of the Rockies or Sierra. You live the mid Atlantic. Stop expecting a KU every single storm. 

The models mostly show an appreciable snowfall for Wednesday. Yes, some show only a 2-4 type storm currently. Dark sky is forecasting 6-9” for Wednesday here in central MD.

I’m thinking the potential is there for along the lines of 4-7” in central MD, 6-9” far NW and more like 2-5” by DC and along 95 and points east-southeast if things fall properly into place. 

Stop with the snow weenie suicide every time a model waivers, for the love of god. Mother Nature  is actually punishing you for bi**hing so much 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nasty amount of ice on the Euro in the 81 corridor after a decent thump. Especially in the Winchester/Martinsburg area. Would be a real mess.

Euro is a major winter storm for here.  A lot can change with 72 hours to go but as of now we are in a good spot across guidance.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I think 2-4” is a nice reasonable forecast for Baltimore and I’d be happy with that. We all know the Winchester to Westminster corridor is gonna be jackpotted with this 

Don't forget the infamous Leesburg/Rockville/HoCoMoCo/NW DC deathband. That ALWAYS sets up. Thats another usual jackzone.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...