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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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IMO SE ridge has gotten bigger each run for days. Primary has moved further west for days. The way we fail is the waa thump stays to our west or doesn’t get going until it’s to our north/west. The further the primary is to our west, the more likely this could be the case. Just some thoughts I have at the moment. Really hope the euro isn’t right or on to something. 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

My guess is probably a good amount of sleet/rain with temps right around freezing.

I don't think snow maps are going to be very useful for this event. SV gives me and you 6"....To me it looks like DC gets like 0.4" QPF of snow/mix, before flipping, but even then we don't torch...33-35 overnight...

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Ok first of all those Kutchera maps will bust low where the banding sets up. Seen it every time. Where the heavy southwest to northeast band sets up the dynamic cooling and mixing will keep the column just cold enough for snow during the heaviest thump. The kuchera is seeing the marginal temps and going assuming mixing and going super low on ratios. Where that .5+ qpf area Wednesday morning sets up will get better ratios than that. 

That said the real problem with the euro is it misses DC area to the NW with the heavy band of precip. It has the same look as the other guidance but it’s aiming it into southern PA instead of at DC area.  It’s even aimed a little north of where I want to see it for me. It’s north of all other guidance with that right now. 

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Just now, Quasievil said:

Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month.

Well if you had to put money on it then the Euro is the number you would play.  Nice if it would have held better from 0z.  SE ridge is snake eyes.  

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22 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

IMO SE ridge has gotten bigger each run for days. Primary has moved further west for days. The way we fail is the waa thump stays to our west or doesn’t get going until it’s to our north/west. The further the primary is to our west, the more likely this could be the case. Just some thoughts I have at the moment. Really hope the euro isn’t right or on to something. 

I agree...the biggest fail threat is that stj moisture  feed gets directed to our NW. 

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2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Is Chill still “holding out” (meaning like football haha) for this storm?? Are there at least ‘contract talks’ ongoing??? 

Not sure what Robert is up to, but not getting invested in a storm that doesn't start until wednesday morning, is what most well-adjusted humans would do....Then there is us

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