Weather Will Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Euro bring in light snow around 12z. Stays snow through 18z based on 850s. Loudoun, Southern Frederick through Baltimore 6 inches using clown maps. DC 4. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Weather Will said: Euro bring in light snow around 12z. Stays snow through 18z based on 850s. Loudoun, Southern Frederick through Baltimore 6 inches using clown maps. DC 4. Rain after or mixed for a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Rain after or mixed for a bit? You can always view full euro runs for free at weather.us . It’s only out to hr 64 so far so it’s a little slow but still works. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Rain after or mixed for a bit? Getting closer to a straight snowstorm. This isn't so bad for a Euro signal. Impressive digging here too. Maybe an ice storm (if we didn't not have ice storms these days). (Maybe a bad interpretation but there is a lot of change possible I think..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Lot of rain until 18z Th. Looks like 1.5 inches total for storm. About a third frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Surface temps transition above freeze no between 18z and 6 z everywhere. I am not skilled enough to say whether there is much frozen during this time frame except in Nortgern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Light snow overspreads area at 5am Wednesday on 0z euro. Begins to mix dc to Balt between 12-3pm. Still mostly snow at 3pm Balt to the northeast. By 6pm the mix/rain line is running 95. By 9pm moderate rain with mixing in favored areas north and west. Rain everywhere south of md/pa border from 12am-9am. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019021700/maryland/significant-weather/20190221-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Light snow overspreads area at 5am Wednesday on 0z euro. Begins to mix dc to Balt between 12-3pm. Still mostly snow at 3pm Balt to the northeast. By 6pm the mix/rain line is running 95. By 9pm moderate rain with mixing in favored areas north and west. Rain everywhere south of md/pa border from 12am-9am. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019021700/maryland/significant-weather/20190221-0600z.html Try to ignore the weather.us snow depth of 8-12”+ Westminster to Frederick/Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 588dm up to London at this time so we will probably.. something else.. about this storm. (0z Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Rain after or mixed for a bit? Location dependent. The usual places have a high ceiling. Not enthusiastic about the coastal plain. I’d be happy with 2-4” and flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Getting closer to a straight snowstorm. This isn't so bad for a Euro signal. Impressive digging here too. Maybe an ice storm (if we didn't not have ice storms these days). (Maybe a bad interpretation but there is a lot of change possible I think..)Click to animate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6z NAM map. Flips to sleet by 18z Wed at DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Onset time 12z wed, more in line with other guidance on the 6z NAM (6 hrs slower than the 0z) still a big thump of snow to pingers, strong CAD wedge in place for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6z NAM map. Flips to sleet by 18z Wed at DC.Sucks...slowed down onset time from 00z. So much for naming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I think the NAM is trending more toward a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Good news: FV3 starts snow at 6z Bad news: FV3 still has light snow only at 12z Ugly News: Bob Chili is still gone but its going to storm anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Good news: FV3 starts snow at 6z Bad news: FV3 still has light snow only at 12z Ugly News: Bob Chili is still gone but its going to storm anyway lol but he will be back today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 06z GFS looks slightly improved... especially southwest and west of DC... moves snow in around 11z/12z and still snow at 18z for DC but about to flip. 06z ICON looks about the same. 06z FV3/GFS continues to be extremely snowy/sleety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The FV3 is steady Warning Criteria event. The op is basically showing flurries to rain. Would be great to see the FV3 get a big win before taking over as the signal caller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Why do people keep looking at FV3 snow maps lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Why do people keep looking at FV3 snow maps lol. Why are the snow maps so out of whack? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 We don’t have access to the good data, but the FV3 clearly loses the column somewhere around 15z Wednesday in the DC area. At that time ~0.45” of precip has fallen. So, the FV3 is calling for a 4-5” storm followed by slop. A bit more than the Euro, a bit less than the NAM. The TT snow maps are bad because they are snowing 10:1 ratios for sleet. Actual sleet ratios are like 2:1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Wes' article https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/17/dc-area-forecast-little-rain-sleet-later-today-significant-winter-storm-possible-late-tuesday-night-wednesday/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a768ace0c0aa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Why do people keep looking at FV3 snow maps lol. Because it shows the most snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Well in a month it officially takes over for the GFS, so I can't wait until it shows snow in mid-July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I think we need the trough to shift further east if we want a clean snowstorm. That se ridge is not ideal and I would assume it’s mucking with the mid level temps. On the bright side, if this can turn into a longer duration version of the recent cutter that started out as snow, then we can probably pick up a quick couple of inches in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: I think we need the trough to shift further east if we want a clean snowstorm. That se ridge is not ideal and I would assume it’s mucking with the mid level temps. On the bright side, if this can turn into a longer duration version of the recent cutter that started out as snow, then we can probably pick up a quick couple of inches in the cities. Agree even a couple of clicks east would make a difference. Tall order but not impossible I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, 87storms said: I think we need the trough to shift further east if we want a clean snowstorm. That se ridge is not ideal and I would assume it’s mucking with the mid level temps. On the bright side, if this can turn into a longer duration version of the recent cutter that started out as snow, then we can probably pick up a quick couple of inches in the cities. It seems that this event will have more frozen for the cities than last weeks event so we have that going for us. I’d be happy with the general consensus so far of 2-4” on the front end. Anything but 35 degree rain for 24 hours please. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: 4 hours ago, KingJWx said: 6z NAM map. Flips to sleet by 18z Wed at DC. Sucks...slowed down onset time from 00z. So much for naming Seen this look before. The initial stream of stj moisture will turn from a northeast trajectory to more east as it hits the influence of the high. That will direct a plume into the cold east of the mountains. Where that happens gets the thump. North and south of there will get screwed relatively. Models are all over with where. Gfs and NAM are across central VA. Fv3 and cmc likes your area. Euro and icon likes my area. Won’t know exactly where that feature is going to be for a while yet. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Seen this look before. The initial stream of stj moisture will turn from a northeast trajectory to more east as it hits the influence of the high. That will direct a plume into the cold east of the mountains. Where that happens gets the thump. North and south of there will get screwed relatively. Models are all over with where. Gfs and NAM are across central VA. Fv3 and cmc likes your area. Euro and icon likes my area. Won’t know exactly where that feature is going to be for a while yet. Exactly right the way you describe the first part. I said that in the NYC forum last night. This is an event where areas further south may do well depending on where the moisture finds a weakness in the high. We saw this occur in December 2013 I think where parts of NE MD/SE PA/SW NJ saw 8-10 inches and we maybe had 4 up here before going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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