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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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FV3 starts before 6z and heavy by 12z...very NAM-like. Flips to ZR by 18z though...probably 0.6-0.8 qpf before the flip. This according to pivotal maps.


Woah, how did nobody share that Pivotal has good FV3 maps out quickly? Game changer.

FV3 is very fast. Has snow developing over the area between 72-78hrs. Solid thump to a lot of ZR.
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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

So that’s NAM, new GFS, and CMC with quicker solutions.  00z is good overall so far.

Looking at the hourly maps at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html, 0Z CMC starts between 10-11Z whereas the old run started 13-14Z, so yes, a bit quicker. It does seem like the trend is for the ridge to pump more if anything, so getting precip in quicker is the key to accumulations. With the high scooting off to the east, I don't think the low levels will hold on for long in the urban corridor during the day.

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Just now, GEOS5ftw said:

Looking at the hourly maps at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html, 0Z CMC starts between 10-11Z whereas the old run started 13-14Z, so yes, a bit quicker. It does seem like the trend is for the ridge to pump more if anything, so getting precip in quicker is the key to accumulations. With the high scooting off to the east, I don't think the low levels will hold on for long in the urban corridor during the day.

Exactly, I think faster onset will the key for 95 areas to get a few inches of snow.  I tend to think these WAA setups have precip breaking out quicker than modeled so we have that going for us presumably.  My bar is seeing more than 30-60 minutes of frozen which would be more than I got out last week’s storm which turned into mid 30s rain for 99% of it for me.

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7 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Are they still going to run the old GFS at that point?. 

the FV3/Parallel GFS will become the operational GFS in March... 
 
GFS version 15.0 (aka FV3-GFS) was slated to go operational on January 24.  Then the shutdown happened.  The new proposed implementation date is March 20. 
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8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:
the FV3/Parallel GFS will become the operational GFS in March... 
 
GFS version 15.0 (aka FV3-GFS) was slated to go operational on January 24.  Then the shutdown happened.  The new proposed implementation date is March 20. 

Thank you. The thing i was wondering is if what’s the operational GFS now will still be run at all after March 20th. 

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Used to use the paid sites but just going off of h5 and 850 maps on Euro through 72, it would have to be decent. 850 temps are colder than last night's 0z which was already a good run, ridge a bit lower heights in the E. 

The SE ridge is more prevalent at hour 96 vs last nights 0z, but 850 temps pretty similar through our area overall. I'll wait for someone to post the actual maps/outcome. 

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