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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
49 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
From Mount Holly AFD-
The position the aforementioned high takes will have an impact on the ptype Wednesday, but it is interesting to note that the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all have this high moving out to sea rather quickly with approach and passage of next storm system. The high seems to be a bit too far south for a classic cold air damming situation, and winds shift to more of an easterly flow during the day Wednesday, as opposed to a north-northeast flow that is needed to support continuous widespread snow. Regardless, there will be enough cold air for precip to start out as snow throughout the whole forecast area. As the high moves offshore, winds shift to more of a south-southeast flow, and midlevel warm air will lift to the north as well. By Wednesday afternoon, precip will change to rain in Delmarva, and snow becomes a wintry mix for the rest of southeast PA and NJ. Could have a more prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet north and west of Philly, while a rain/sleet mix Wednesday afternoon for southern NJ, extreme southeast PA, and northern portions of Delmarva becomes plain rain by Wednesday evening. Rain/snow line then continues to lift north Wedensday night. Frontal boundary then becomes hung up south of Delmarva going into the end of the week, and several more waves of low pressure will develop on this boundary as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Remains to be seen what wins out for the late week period.
 
That last part..hmm

Lol we cant win. Now our high is too south

The weather man, out to get ya. :P 

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1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Its better than 12Z.  Maybe a tad slower but comes in heavy. 

yeah it has the most accumulating snow since yesterday's 18Z.  Just glad we didnt lose it. Would be fun to get 4 inches in a couple of hours. I like watching heavy snow.

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches?

He doesn't come in until the event is locked in and even then not until right before with  200% to 400% of forecasted totals.

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think its colder than the other models but it did start the precip like at 1am..and its heavy snow by 12z which is what we need

It's documented that it has a cold bias.

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38 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

What’s the opinion on crankyweatherguy in here? He doesn’t seem to think it’ll snow at all in nova or Maryland, icy to mix

Yeah, he's cranky...but he usually aims that at the Twatter-based wx "hobbyists" who are more concerned about hyping models showing the most digital snow than anything else. I rather enjoy reading and occasionally learning from his long blog entries, at least as much as I do by haunting these forums. And honestly...while I'm typically pulling for snow/ice, I'm selfishly hoping for ONLY an "icy-to-rain mix" on Wed AM, as we'll be trying to get out of DCA on a 10 a.m. flight to see our oldest be commissioned out of Army OCS at Fort Benning, GA on Thursday.

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