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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat


Danajames
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Gotta love the Eagles fans with the bold talk after finally winning a SB....Talk smack after you have 3. With their time frame on winning one that will only take another 80 or 90 years.

The Euro looks good. And I am actually happy to see a better cold push on this run. If this was going to work it was a max 4-6 type event anyways. And that is what the model still shows.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Gotta love the Eagles fans with the bold talk after finally winning a SB....Talk smack after you have 3. With their time frame on winning one that will only take another 80 or 90 years.

The Euro looks good. And I am actually happy to see a better cold push on this run. If this was going to work it was a max 4-6 type event anyways. And that is what the model still shows.

"Stay in your lane Bro". PSU expressed sympathy for current Skin fans since it was in the last century when they won anything and I expressed some sympathy for being old enough to remember the bad times Eagle fans endured which hasn't happened in the current century.

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12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Gotta love the Eagles fans with the bold talk after finally winning a SB....Talk smack after you have 3. With their time frame on winning one that will only take another 80 or 90 years.

The Euro looks good. And I am actually happy to see a better cold push on this run. If this was going to work it was a max 4-6 type event anyways. And that is what the model still shows.

The “we used to be good” argument.

Yawn.

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1 hour ago, dsnowman said:

The GFS was starting to show some transfer to the coast, thus holding things back and slowing it down. I haven’t looked at the EURO maps, are we seeing the same thing? Overall this could be a good thing. I’m more worried about temps right now, so if we get the coastal going qpf will be no problem.

I know it's several days out but the QPF is looking just fine...maybe around an inch.  It will have plenty of moisture to work with.  For us snow lovers, it's going to depend on how much cold air will be in place, how long it hangs around and obviously, the eventual track. There's definitely going to be warm air advection aloft but sometimes the CAD can be hard to erode.  I'm a hard core realist for the most part but my gut is telling me that if we can pull off one more, legitimate WSW event for most of the state, this one may be the real McCoy.  We shall see. 

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From Mount Holly AFD-

The position the aforementioned high takes will have an impact on the ptype Wednesday, but it is interesting to note that the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all have this high moving out to sea rather quickly with approach and passage of next storm system. The high seems to be a bit too far south for a classic cold air damming situation, and winds shift to more of an easterly flow during the day Wednesday, as opposed to a north-northeast flow that is needed to support continuous widespread snow. Regardless, there will be enough cold air for precip to start out as snow throughout the whole forecast area. As the high moves offshore, winds shift to more of a south-southeast flow, and midlevel warm air will lift to the north as well. By Wednesday afternoon, precip will change to rain in Delmarva, and snow becomes a wintry mix for the rest of southeast PA and NJ. Could have a more prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet north and west of Philly, while a rain/sleet mix Wednesday afternoon for southern NJ, extreme southeast PA, and northern portions of Delmarva becomes plain rain by Wednesday evening. Rain/snow line then continues to lift north Wedensday night. Frontal boundary then becomes hung up south of Delmarva going into the end of the week, and several more waves of low pressure will develop on this boundary as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Remains to be seen what wins out for the late week period.

 

That last part..hmm

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From Mount Holly AFD-
The position the aforementioned high takes will have an impact on the ptype Wednesday, but it is interesting to note that the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all have this high moving out to sea rather quickly with approach and passage of next storm system. The high seems to be a bit too far south for a classic cold air damming situation, and winds shift to more of an easterly flow during the day Wednesday, as opposed to a north-northeast flow that is needed to support continuous widespread snow. Regardless, there will be enough cold air for precip to start out as snow throughout the whole forecast area. As the high moves offshore, winds shift to more of a south-southeast flow, and midlevel warm air will lift to the north as well. By Wednesday afternoon, precip will change to rain in Delmarva, and snow becomes a wintry mix for the rest of southeast PA and NJ. Could have a more prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet north and west of Philly, while a rain/sleet mix Wednesday afternoon for southern NJ, extreme southeast PA, and northern portions of Delmarva becomes plain rain by Wednesday evening. Rain/snow line then continues to lift north Wedensday night. Frontal boundary then becomes hung up south of Delmarva going into the end of the week, and several more waves of low pressure will develop on this boundary as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Remains to be seen what wins out for the late week period.
 
That last part..hmm
Lol we cant win. Now our high is too south
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