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ORH_wxman

Feb 18 overrunning threat

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

The cape is def in the game for a mix. I told him last night to keep that in mind

RGEM would be snow for him. Hi res RGEM is like flurries outside the Cape. 

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

3k Nam also

Looking good in SNE

I am right on the boarder in sw CT. RGEM has the most. 2 to 4 looks good for SW CT now. Hoping for more. 

Not geographically on the boarder. Rain vs. Snow.

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11 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

What kind of ratios are we talking about? Doesn’t seem overly cold, 10:1, 9:1?

Yeah esp down south. The best omega is below DGZ. At least on the NAM and GFS it is. I don't have cross sections for other guidance. 

There may be a band of good ratios further north where the crosshair sig is present. 

The wildcard is what ratios look like during lingering IVT stuff. Low levels get pretty cold so it could be decent. Esp near the coast where salt nuclei are dense in the atmosphere. 

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3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I have a friend who thinks we'll hit 5" here

I would sell on that...  I know some of the Mets on here keep mentioning the north side doing better, but I’m thinking in this case the north side is closer to the Pike.

Foxboro jack to piss off my brother

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro is nice.

Bumped slightly north

You know it's nice for your area when NYC rains =)

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How is the qpf distribution?

Maybe .3 to .4 there? Probably some better ratios in your hood too. 

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19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Still some decent spread in guidance pretty close in. I like 2-4” for most... maybe an isolated 5 spot for someone if everything breaks right 

2-3” will be a common number I think.

I think if everything breaks right..it would be like 5-7" spot 8". But I think 2-5" is reasonable with the assumption it doesnt

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The low-level Atlantic Ocean moisture is developing off the Cape this morning, low-level clouds are developing as easterly to southerly flow develops ahead of parent low before it weakens and transfers energy to the secondary low (coastal storm).  This appears like a just south of the benchmark track will suffice for the area.  I will go with the southern guidance like the RGEM/HRRR/EURO.  I don't think the Cape mixes, but perhaps the islands will mix.  I still like my map from earlier this morning.

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Some more stuff for your questions about 6 Z Euro. No 800 level stuff but would imagine with 7H so cold the warmest layer at max precipitation is 850. Looks good for a nice little snow. Probably just a little taint directly on the shore. Sunday Fundays

download (22).png

download (23).png

download (24).png

download (25).png

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9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The low-level Atlantic Ocean moisture is developing off the Cape this morning, low-level clouds are developing as easterly to southerly flow develops ahead of parent low before it weakens and transfers energy to the secondary low (coastal storm).  This appears like a just south of the benchmark track will suffice for the area.  I will go with the southern guidance like the RGEM/HRRR/EURO.  I don't think the Cape mixes, but perhaps the islands will mix.  I still like my map from earlier this morning.

Hey James , should you rain at some point in Harwich what will you say....” I shouldn’t have ignored the Oc 850 line bc I didn’t want it to rain, I’m Just passionate”

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hey James , should you rain at some point in Harwich what will you say....” I shouldn’t have ignored the Oc 850 line bc I didn’t want it to rain, in Just passionate”

If it rains, I was wrong, I never been ignorant and say I was never wrong, I say when I am wrong very often more so than most people ever in this world.  Even if we rain for a bit, the GFS still produces a half foot of snow on Chatham.

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

3km NAM is not too crazy. I'm curious to see how the rest of the 12z HREF members shake out. 

3k NAM has been most consistent with distribution but cut back a tad from 6z.

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