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ORH_wxman

Feb 18 overrunning threat

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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

A solid ADV event for SNE looks probable now. No WSWs are going up though.

I think EURO caves entirely towards the GFS given that the GFS has all the support and the EURO op is on its own.  GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM all show the potential for a significant event.

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not really . I leave emotion out of forecasting while others struggle to.

Lol yea ok. Guess you emotivelly discarded the GEFS EURO LR and scientifically came up with all that on your own. 

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tough expecting the Euro to cave any direction at < 4 days...

if it happens...so be it... but I wouldn't be shocked just the same if the collapsing, en masse, goes toward it and not the other way around ;)

it's happen before with that particular model's acumen... barring some sort of quantized improvement by the others, probably should expect it to happen again at some point. 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice fronto right across LI

It actually has high RH at H7 well to the north so perhaps the old fronto band placed further north.

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol yea ok. Guess you emotivelly discarded the GEFS EURO LR and scientifically came up with all that on your own. 

You wouldn’t complain if I said snowy, but ahhh emotion .

why the Fook would I forecast what the LR gfs or Euro show this year. They shit the bed constantly . Your posts when you disagree  Read like emotional knee jerk Rhea.

All it takes is losing the EPO ridge and it’s ova baby. That’s all I’m sayin

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You wouldn’t complain if I said snowy, but ahhh emotion .

why the Fook would I forecast what the LR gfs or Euro show this year. They shit the bed constantly . Your posts when you disagree  Read like emotional knee jerk Rhea.

All it takes is losing the EPO ridge and it’s ova baby. That’s all I’m sayin

Don't care what you say you used an emotive response to post. That's not what you said either 

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00z NAM is certainly amped, better lift (omega over -20 units) in the DGZ (dentrite growth zone) so snowfall rates could be quite interesting.

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Calling it over running with this thing but it clearly morphs cyclestrophic as an event ... and then ends as an inverted trough too. Wonder if there could even be a NOrland signature they're just looking at the pressure pattern

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10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

00z GFS looks more amped down south at hour 44.

No big changes.  It might have been 10 miles south of the 18Z run 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No big changes.  It might have been 10 miles south of the 18Z run 

It is more amped with the precipitation amounts, .5 to 1.0" of QPF over the South Coast of RI and SE MA including the Cape and Islands.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Calling it over running with this thing but it clearly morphs cyclestrophic as an event ... and then ends as an inverted trough too. Wonder if there could even be a NOrland signature they're just looking at the pressure pattern

Well, now I'm interested.

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