Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman
 Share

Recommended Posts

I may be wrong here, but there really isn't a ton of upper-level support going on...not much in the way of ulvl divergence. Seeing how the mlvl and ulvl jet are strengthening placing us on the nose of the jet the divergence isn't there. I wonder if the confluence (and strengthening confluence given the increasing jet to our SW) is yielding too much subsidence. I wonder if we'll ever see a consolidated precip field? Seems like it will be more spotty heavier echos and then crap outside of it

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, dryslot said:

You looked to have a few though on some of the pics i had seen, Looked similar to when i'm riding at 3K

Oh definitely... but man this season has had quite a few higher QPF, low ratio snows than we are used to.  I guess that's what happens immediately north of the mix line on so many events.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thought I'd put up a map... 

As I mentioned for days, my biggest red flag about going higher are that soundings still look terrible or spotty through the night, and even worse after 12z when models continue to accumulate another 2" or so in eastern SNE... 

Also, frankly, I can see the moon. Some time will be eaten up saturating the column. This has the feel (and current radar appearance) of a relatively ragged event. All making me lean conservative.

Boston metro I'm expecting 3-5", most before 12z. Thereafter soundings look crappy and we may get intermittent snow but overall looks like poor snowgrowth. As I posted yesterday, we do have good saturation and cold enough temps for snowgrowth around 900-850 mb with easterly fetch, but I'm not sure lift will be sufficient with uncertain IVT mechanics.

Where could I bust? (1) The 2-4" in sNH / nMA may be underestimating midlevel frontogenesis + better ratios, but I think dynamics are pretty weak and I'm not certain ratios will be significantly much better. 20:1 ratios will get it to about 3-4" using Euro/NAM qpf. (2) the arm of Cape Cod - Provincetown is currently in the 2-5" range, but might be clipped by 3-6" or even higher if the CCB dynamics are better and/or IVT overperforms.

Wxsniss_Forecast_Map_02_17_2019_9pm.jpeg.568a5ed50fb3013fc68eb938999a0de5.jpeg

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

9 or so, not sure. I wasn’t checking every minute like I usually do. 

Sounds about right. I started to check like every 5 minutes and in between checks is when it started. Coming down a little heavier now...probably like Patriots Super Bowl confetti type intensity 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...