Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Blizz to Ginx to Bob to Diane could get warning snows on la NAM BOX better WSW . They’ll be upgrading quickly overnight after 4 inches has already fallen if not , which doesn’t count as verification 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: BOX better WSW . They’ll be upgrading quickly overnight after 4 inches has already fallen if not , which doesn’t count as verification What do you know about verification? Verification is only having a warning out when criteria is met. So as long as they issue before half the zone reaches an average of 6" it's a hit. It may not be a good forecast, but that's different than verification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: What do you know about verification? Verification is only having a warning out when criteria is met. So as long as they issue before half the zone reaches an average of 6" it's a hit. It may not be a good forecast, but that's different than verification. WSW for interior Plymouth and Bristol counties of MA. WWA for most of the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I think this map looks pretty good, actually. I might be a bit more generous for Hubb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: WSW for interior Plymouth and Bristol counties of MA. WWA for most of the rest of the region. That actually makes sense if I am thinking of where the county borders are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Storm Center is near southern IN, at around 1008mb, storm is strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What do you know about verification? Verification is only having a warning out when criteria is met. So as long as they issue before half the zone reaches an average of 6" it's a hit. It may not be a good forecast, but that's different than verification. The fact they didn’t recognize it was a warning situation before hand and then scrambling to CYA.. it just doesn’t seem that’s a proper way to forecast. Doesn’t sit well with the GP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The fact they didn’t recognize it was a warning situation before hand and then scrambling to CYA.. it just doesn’t seem that’s a proper way to forecast. Doesn’t sit well with the GP You really think the general public gives a shit between advisory and warning? Lol...we’re the only ones that care.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ...you've bothered to analyze, and props for that effort ... You've come to what we've all suspected - or at least I ... Those products usually I cut in half as a perfunctory first requirement per their usage.. I come to find that even in the best circumstances, verification will never tally 100 % of those fantasies. ...About 80 tops, but that's for upper tier events with huge environmental controlling parameters in play. A situ like this is an autopilot 1/2 er. What's liable to happen now just because we're having this discussion is... some unforeseen mechanics will stripe a foot across the region ... I mean as a really rough first guess they have some value over a 10:1 because they factor in max temp in the column, but overall just meh. So much more goes into the ratios than that, and forecasting high ratios is pretty fraught with traps too. As a for example: BDL at 12z Monday has a max temp of about -2C below 500 mb. That means your Kuchera ratio is 12:1. Higher than climo normal. But inspecting the sounding and the DGZ is unsaturated. Any QPF will accumulate at 12:1 that hour, even though it is highly unlikely it would actually produce ratios that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The fact they didn’t recognize it was a warning situation before hand and then scrambling to CYA.. it just doesn’t seem that’s a proper way to forecast. Doesn’t sit well with the GP A warning or advisory is 80% confidence, so some of them are bound to bust. And scrambling to CYA is hardly an upgrade because instead of 5" you might see 6". 1/20 was a way worse forecast (for the general public too) than the possibility that BOX would have to upgrade a high end advisory to warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: A warning or advisory is 80% confidence, so some of them are bound to bust. And scrambling to CYA is hardly an upgrade because instead of 5" you might see 6". 1/20 was a way worse forecast (for the general public too) than the possibility that BOX would have to upgrade a high end advisory to warning. That was a much higher impact too. 5 vs 7” won’t do much compared to a flash freeze of 5” of slush. That freeze turned into school delays and cancellations the next day (after MLK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: You really think the general public gives a shit between advisory and warning? Lol...we’re the only ones that care.... Weenies need the wsw posted before we get tucked in for bed tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: A warning or advisory is 80% confidence, so some of them are bound to bust. And scrambling to CYA is hardly an upgrade because instead of 5" you might see 6". 1/20 was a way worse forecast (for the general public too) than the possibility that BOX would have to upgrade a high end advisory to warning. Oh I know it’s NBD. 5 vs 7”. Other than a stat padder . But I just am not a fan of Conservative forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 This is it? Is this as good as it gets? decades of life wended it's way to this f'ing moment of debating the cataclysmic significance of high end advisory or low end warning interpretation with Connecticut hill people 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 BOX has advisories for the Cape and Islands, warning from the canal to around Weymouth over to PVD and west. Advisories for the rest of MA, RI, CT within their purview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh I know it’s NBD. 5 vs 7”. Other than a stat padder . But I just am not a fan of Conservative forecasting. You don't say. But a false alarm rate over 50% is just as bad if not worse than a probability of detection of 80 or 90%. GYX has the same FAR for warnings as watches this year (35%), frankly that's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is it? Is this as good as it gets? decades of life wended it's way to this f'ing moment of debating the cataclysmic significance of high end advisory or low end warning interpretation with Connecticut hill people Go out and toss a few disc golf frisbees around with the fellas . Get out some aggression 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Latest probable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Lol at folks actually taking Kevin seriously Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Go out and toss a few disc golf frisbees around with the fellas . Get out some aggression `Ha ha... it is actually amazing out there today... You're perfect type of mid February warming sun on the napes while strolling by a placid pond, reflecting upon what could have been ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Can't argue much with the nws forecast. I'll take my advisory and head to the cliff walk where ill magically hold the sleet off like a poor man's gandalf, in a poor man's caradhras pass, against a poor man's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 We didn't get a WSW last go around with close to 5" of snow/sleet and freezing rain. Worse in MHO than potential 6"+ of straight snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, NeonPeon said: Can't argue much with the nws forecast. I'll take my advisory and head to the cliff walk where ill magically hold the sleet off like a poor man's gandalf, in a poor man's caradhras pass, against a poor man's storm. Man you need to take a deep breath, you will be mostly all snow, the models are getting more aggressive with the precipitation production, and colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Dynamical cooling as the surface low intensifies rapidly offshore bringing in the cold air, this will induce afternoon heavier snowfall with ocean enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 And remember-as recently as 72 hours ago this was a miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 So this will be the first sisable all snow event up this way. The November snow storm had a tiny amount of sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: And remember-as recently as 72 hours ago this was a miss. Hey for tamarack it's still a miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Hey for tamarack it's still a miss! He’ll be ok with his 37” pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Man you need to take a deep breath, you will be mostly all snow, the models are getting more aggressive with the precipitation production, and colder at the surface. You seem to think I'm worried, or bothered, or stressed. I'm not. I'm thoroughly enjoying having something to pay attention to. I'm just realistic, and live on an island in a bay, and looked at the soundings on various guidance, and a lot of them point to sleet for a time. That could easily lop an inch or two off, and that's that's what output shows. The models seem pretty set on an event that's pretty mediocre, outside of the context of this winter. Wouldn't be shocked to see some people outside of the WSW area get a nice band and overperform, but I also wouldn't want to bet on where. I wouldn't be gobsmacked if I got 3 inches or even less, honestly. I wouldn't be shocked if someone in the WSW area got 7 inches either. I don't see some huge swath of NE getting 6 inches though, but what the hell do I know. I don't really care as long as my kid can mound some snow. I think its going to be a fun morning tomorrow for him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He’ll be ok with his 37” pack. NNE weenies matter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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