USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Also, 12z runs are strengthening the surface low (secondary low) faster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 3km NAM is not too crazy. I'm curious to see how the rest of the 12z HREF members shake out. I saw that, alot of 2-3 amounts except for the SE coast of CT....definitely a 2-4 type event, lollies to 5-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3k 6z top 12z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 57 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Congrats sne. This one is yours Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk You won't have to wait long, Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: I saw that, alot of 2-3 amounts except for the SE coast of CT....definitely a 2-4 type event Yup, 2-4 regionwide with a 5 burger for some in RI/SEMA. Nothing there to over analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I saw that, alot of 2-3 amounts except for the SE coast of CT....definitely a 2-4 type event, lollies to 5-6? We're running with 2-4" now. Could be some 5 or 6 totals in some weenie banding but I do think the window for good stuff is pretty short tonight... like 2 hours of great snow growth then meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Snows much of the day tomorrow lightly. Grab another inch of so most spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks pretty solid. Would move the 1 to 3 over LI and NYC to align with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Looks reasonable ... There could be a general 3.2" with one or two lollies to 4 on the dot spanning the area ... and then the post-mortem vitriol would undoubtedly discuss the system as having busted on the low side, "...but overall, not terrible..." Conversely, a 6" total or two taking place, in the midst of a general swath of 4" would reflect as a system well handled... Even though fair evaluation of both outcomes would yield they were both perfectly forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Which location in the Eastern US do we start an observations thread for when the snow gets there? Snow is starting to break out across western areas of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I find it impressive to have 20 pages during the later stages of February for a general 2-5 inch event for SNE, speaks volumes for this season.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks reasonable ... There could be a general 3.2" with one or two lollies to 4 on the dot spanning the area ... and then the post-mortem vitriol would undoubtedly discuss the system as having busted on the low side, "...but overall, not terrible..." Conversely, a 6" total or two taking place, in the midst of a general swath of 4" would reflect as a system well handled... Even though fair evaluation of both outcomes would yield they were both perfectly forecast. Yeah honestly, mostly 2-4 or lots of 4-5 with a spot 6 wouldn't be surprising...either scenario is totally plausible. It's really the difference of 1 or 2 inches which can be found in both parts of the system. Front end burst overperforms...or maybe IVT later in the game overperforms. Or maybe they both underperform and it's lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Visible satellite imagery would certainly suggest this storm spans the entire US from border to border north to south. The circulation is impacting the Great Lakes to the Southern States. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I had a feelin' this would happen... As a user of the FRH FOUS grid ( ..because I go back a ways to the days when knowing how to interpret those numbers was a useful tool in shorter term prognostication), one thing I've noted ..even back before the NAM was the NAM ( it used to be called the "ETA" and it only went out 48 hours if we got back far enough) is that QPF quite frequently comes into the models range too hefty. Then, the model cuts it back after a cycle or two, ...tries to bring back the heftier numbers, only to at last collapse to the global model types in the 30 hour range. ...Heh, and as these numbers come and pass by in time, the up -down nature of the correction curve is always well echoed by the tenor in optimism in the posts... it's awesome. I can be in a meeting at work ... some manager droning on by quarterly mission statements ... and thumbing through my filthy iPhone's screen interface under the edge of table, I know where we are along the cycle of the NAM's system detection purely from gauging that optimism vs tossing tempo... Anyway, this system seems to have performed along that similar sinusoidal decay of first bigger QPF, then less... back bigger ...settling on less. Not true in all systems...seems to be a behavior that's endemic to low to middling system strength. I've seen big juggernaut nor'easters with 2+" of liq equiv QPF lock in early but ...the dynamics/mechanics are overwhelming so they probably mute "model noise" at the powerful ' er end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah honestly, mostly 2-4 or lots of 4-5 with a spot 6 wouldn't be surprising...either scenario is totally plausible. It's really the difference of 1 or 2 inches which can be found in both parts of the system. Front end burst overperforms...or maybe IVT later in the game overperforms. Or maybe they both underperform and it's lower end. You know ... not for not ... this is the first system this season that we'll make it back to back prior to the snow/gunk pack being eroded down to nothing. Yaaay! We've sustained - This winter is so focked... it's like trying to get as close to the event-horizon of futility without actually being compulsory to that unsavory gravity well. At least with futility ...there's a chagrin, shit eating charm if not honorable mention for having endured that journey, but we don't even get that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12z RGEM with a jump north. That model blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z RGEM with a jump north. That model blows. Great. That probably screws the south coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 12z RGEM with a jump north. That model blows. Yeah it's been bad this year. More than usual. It had a couple SWFE systems tracking into Watertown NY at 48h lead time only to end up over CHH....and now with this system it's been really far south. Finally comes back to most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Which location in the Eastern US do we start an observations thread for when the snow gets there? Snow is starting to break out across western areas of Virginia. Calm down, James. You're like a kid who can't wait to open his presents on Christmas morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Great. That probably screws the south coast. It does not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's been bad this year. More than usual. It had a couple SWFE systems tracking into Watertown NY at 48h lead time only to end up over CHH....and now with this system it's been really far south. Finally comes back to most other guidance. Yeah, yeesh. Junk this year. The only thing that does it give me higher confidence of 2-4 at BOS. If GFS is a little juicier and euro holds maybe a 5 or 6 can't be ruled out. Some guidance like the RGEM does have a small CJ signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12z RGEM in line with most of the consensus, weakest snow amounts are the SREFs mean, 9z run, while the most intense is now the 12z RGEM, with the EURO 6-7", GFS 6", NAM 3-4", 3KM NAM 6-8", HRRR near 4-5" with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 GFS juiced up too. Looks sim to euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS juiced up too. Looks sim to euro. James is gonna have a QPF explosion on his leg 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 My gut says we see a buch of 5-7”amounts 90 south. This is fluffy stuff and snows for hours and hours into tomorrow pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: My gut says we see a buch of 5-7”amounts 90 south. This is fluffy stuff and snows for hours and hours into tomorrow pm It won't be that fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It won't be that fluffy. Yeah, won't be fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 There might be a period of decent growth, but we we lose the lift near the DGX, we'll lose the fluff. Maybe in the aftn as erly flow gets established and temps drop in the 950-900 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: There might be a period of decent growth, but we we lose the lift near the DGX, we'll lose the fluff. Maybe in the aftn as erly flow gets established and temps drop in the 950-900 level. Yeah I could see the stuff after 18z near the coast being good growth again. Get some low level IVT lift in that 900mb layer that drops to -10C. That's more than enough for dendrites in a salt nuclei environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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