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ORH_wxman

Feb 18 overrunning threat

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

My gut is the entire thing ends up north of current consensus. The upper level shortwave/vorticity is pretty far northwest. If it ends up too "straight" and loses its cyclonic curvature, then maybe I could see everything squashed into a weenie band on the south coast or near it...but my gut says north because the shortwave is strong before it enters the confluence and typically I feel like models try and decay them too quickly. 

W'ell see. But I feel like someone between the pike and S NH/S VT will get the surprise weenie band with ratios. 

Someone like scooter is going to get currier and ives for hours I think after the main synoptic stuff moves out. The 850-900 layer gets pretty cold so o wouldn't be surprised at good ratios during this time too. There could also be another low level qpf max down in CT/RI. 

Agree.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Holy euro. That’s a big improvement.

Scott, Will mentioned yesterday that the models were trending towards a stretched out shortwave, maybe not a weakening shortwave, perhaps the reasoning for the models not weakening the snow amounts, but instead going stronger with them.  A stretching shortwave does not promise a weakening one.

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Euro maybe be warning snows for southeast MA. 

Either way though that is pretty solid for just about all of SNE. Might be some taint on the south coast though for a time. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro maybe be warning snows for southeast MA. 

Either way though that is pretty solid for just about all of SNE. Might be some taint on the south coast though for a time. 

Its taint for the islands Will, that's it.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro maybe be warning snows for southeast MA. 

Either way though that is pretty solid for just about all of SNE. Might be some taint on the south coast though for a time. 

How about Central Park? Sorry to bother you

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3 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

How about Central Park? Sorry to bother you

No you get a lot of mixing and rain, you are too far south for snow, maybe an inch initially before the mix occurs.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s scientifically impossible, this  will not taint in Harwich , the atmosphere and James will not allow it

It's not impossible, just not the setup this system.  This winter has been different because the primary lows have been stronger and further northwest, like DET/BUF locations, this primary is more Harrisburg, PA.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro maybe be warning snows for southeast MA. 

Either way though that is pretty solid for just about all of SNE. Might be some taint on the south coast though for a time. 

Does it get anything more than an 1" up here?  Wish weatherbell had the off hour Euros.  In this situation whether its 1" or 3" doesn't make much difference up here.

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Just now, Morch Madness said:

Jimmy I hope this is a region-wide 3-6 and you get 6.1

lol thanks, the models are seeing that the secondary low intensifies faster as it hits the water east of NJ and tracks towards the benchmark location, this throws back low-level moisture into the coastline, where Cape Cod is best placed for higher snowfall totals, these are one of a few tracks that storms take that benefit Cape Cod for the snowfall jacks.

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looks like nice fronto SEMA to SVT, I don't think this is done coming north either imho, I see around the pike to rt 2 with a nice stripe of 3-6 w/ lollies... think the island and cape may taint.

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3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Wtf is this

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

Why would you quote it?!

And that's why you don't look at the forum on work computers ha.  

Guy joined 8 minutes ago to get revenge for getting banned off a weather forum.  What a nut job.

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