dryslot Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Oh definitely... but man this season has had quite a few higher QPF, low ratio snows than we are used to. I guess that's what happens immediately north of the mix line on so many events. Ha, Its been plenty of glop fest here too, Lot of 7-9:1 stuff on many storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 00z HRRRX looks fine, if not great. Not sure what the panic is about. That's a good look for BDL-ORH-BOS. Also looks like a light snow event for all of VT and NH now too. Yeah. The area of snow is developing and smoothing out as modeled too. I don’t see too many iss s unless you were hoping for 10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah. The area of snow is developing and smoothing out as modeled too. I don’t see too many iss s unless you were hoping for 10” All models have had it blossoming over SNE... this isn't a "moving in like a wall" type event. I'd take a half inch QPF snow prog on the HRRR all day long. Where do I sign? I'll enjoy even 1-2" of fluff, I just like seeing the flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah. The area of snow is developing and smoothing out as modeled too. I don’t see too many iss s unless you were hoping for 10” Scott have you seen the meso the develops on some models that rotates down fromPWM across Beantown then the Cape. We saw one of those in 11 I believe. Gave the EMA cost an additional 2 to 3 in heavy mini comma head stuff. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: All models have had it blossoming over SNE... this isn't a "moving in like a wall" type event. I'd take a half inch QPF snow prog on the HRRR all day long. Where do I sign? Nice little moderate snow for the snow starved, I am getting interested in how much snow sleet ice we get down here Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Same thing. It’s not like we are debating 15” vs 8” Well yeah, but we haven't had much of a chance to debate anything fun this year. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Scott have you seen the meso the develops on some models that rotates down fromPWM across Beantown then the Cape. We saw one of those in 11 I believe. Gave the EMA cost an additional 2 to 3 in heavy mini comma head stuff. Something to watch. That’s like a mini srfc trough separating stronger E winds from NNE winds. Guidance has no idea with that, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: All models have had it blossoming over SNE... this isn't a "moving in like a wall" type event. I'd take a half inch QPF snow prog on the HRRR all day long. Where do I sign? I'll enjoy even 1-2" of fluff, I just like seeing the flakes fly. Yeah I’ll be happy with 2-4. Hoping 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3km Nam more bullish this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 44 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Thought I'd put up a map... As I mentioned for days, my biggest red flag about going higher are that soundings still look terrible or spotty through the night, and even worse after 12z when models continue to accumulate another 2" or so in eastern SNE... Also, frankly, I can see the moon. Some time will be eaten up saturating the column. This has the feel (and current radar appearance) of a relatively ragged event. All making me lean conservative. Boston metro I'm expecting 3-5", most before 12z. Thereafter soundings look crappy and we may get intermittent snow but overall looks like poor snowgrowth. As I posted yesterday, we do have good saturation and cold enough temps for snowgrowth around 900-850 mb with easterly fetch, but I'm not sure lift will be sufficient with uncertain IVT mechanics. Where could I bust? (1) The 2-4" in sNH / nMA may be underestimating midlevel frontogenesis + better ratios, but I think dynamics are pretty weak and I'm not certain ratios will be significantly much better. 20:1 ratios will get it to about 3-4" using Euro/NAM qpf. (2) the arm of Cape Cod - Provincetown is currently in the 2-5" range, but might be clipped by 3-6" or even higher if the CCB dynamics are better and/or IVT overperforms. I struggled with this part....I ultimately decided on that you did....2-5". The fact that the mid levels are opening up as it approaches limits the banding potential, however there should still be some enhancement for a time, otherwise its a 1-3" event here....I tried to account for both with the 2-5" zone. 5" would be the exception up here under whatever mid level banding that there is. If those mid level centers remain closed, then we could steal the show up here...models have hinted at that, but I'm not confident enough of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Not a bad look for a certain hilltop in NE CT...Ginxy to Scooter and south to Diane... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I'd take .4" QPF and bolt....could event be slightly better then 10:1 up here. I have the over/under at like 3.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Not a bad look for a certain hilltop in NE CT...Ginxy to Scooter and south to Diane... We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 All the guidance has trended worse for the coast, as we've zeroed in on the event. Now expecting more like 1-2 inches, and more significantly for my purposes, to wake up to a snowy look, but with a cold rain/sleet. Not so much fun for the kid to play in. Hope I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Solid coating out there. Nice flake size too. Off to bed...WAY past bed time. Better only be like 2'' here...any more and pulling out of the driveway won't be fun and I don't want to shovel at 4:30 in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 BOS to scooter and down to SE Ma could do pretty well after 18-19z tomorrow...I can see a scenario where the snow growth gets really crappy in the morning when the initial WAA thump moves out and they get dryslotted at H7 and everyone sort of thinks that's it for the event....but then the soundings start looking pretty nice again during the IVT stuff...gets cold and there's a decent lapse rate that develops....and snow blossoms nicely in the afternoon with good snow growth returning. Thats somehing we will have to watch for in terms of "surprises" that could turn a 4-5" event into a 7-8" lollipop in spots. The other spot might be N MA to NH border area where there's actually a nice 5-6 hour period of pretty persistent ML frontogenesis that comes in pulses. At least on NAM. Haven't checked HRRR but no reason to think NAM will be that far off now inside of 12 hours. Most other guidance has kind of been showing this anyway. But that's a prime suspect area for turning a 3" storm into a 6" lolli too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOS to scooter and down to SE Ma could do pretty well after 18-19z tomorrow...I can see a scenario where the snow growth gets really crappy in the morning when the initial WAA thump moves out and they get dryslotted at H7 and everyone sort of thinks that's it for the event....but then the soundings start looking pretty nice again during the IVT stuff...gets cold and there's a decent lapse rate that develops....and snow blossoms nicely in the afternoon with good snow growth returning. Thats somehing we will have to watch for in terms of "surprises" that could turn a 4-5" event into a 7-8" lollipop in spots. The other spot might be N MA to NH border area where there's actually a nice 5-6 hour period of pretty persistent ML frontogenesis that comes in pulses. At least on NAM. Haven't checked HRRR but no reason to think NAM will be that far off now inside of 12 hours. Most other guidance has kind of been showing this anyway. But that's a prime suspect area for turning a 3" storm into a 6" lolli too. Yea....that's my 2-5" up here....bc of the mid level front. Otherwise I would have gone 1-3" up here. I figured 2-3" if it doesn't really pan out, and 4-5" if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....that's my 2-5" up here....bc of the mid level front. Otherwise I would have gone 1-3" up here. I figured 2-3" if it doesn't really pan out, and 4-5" if it does. Your area actually might not be bad for the IVT either. You're pretty far east...guidance shows it lingering there as well. It's not just a SE MA thing. You just don't get into the initial push until a bit later otherwise you'd prob be in a 5-7" type spot. But def good to keep it 2-5 for now considering you have to wait longer for the main stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Your area actually might not be bad for the IVT either. You're pretty far east...guidance shows it lingering there as well. It's not just a SE MA thing. You just don't get into the initial push until a bit later otherwise you'd prob be in a 5-7" type spot. But def good to keep it 2-5 for now considering you have to wait longer for the main stuff. My goal is 4"...make an even 30" heading into March. Then who knows....another March Mauler could get me into a range where my outlook isn't quite such a traumatic forecasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....that's my 2-5" up here....bc of the mid level front. Otherwise I would have gone 1-3" up here. I figured 2-3" if it doesn't really pan out, and 4-5" if it does. That makes sense. I’m taking the low end of that, but I will see what I wake to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My goal is 4"...make an even 30" heading into March. Then who knows....another March Mauler could get me into a range where my outlook isn't quite such a traumatic forecasting event. I think around 3" if I picked a number for you. We hope for 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Already 1.7" at Windsor Locks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 We got flurries and then has been a big nothing down here in ansonia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 And just like that we have sleet down here... -Ansonia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Looks pretty meh out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Looks pretty meh out west Look out the window..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Look out the window..... I should rephrase.. Looks pretty lame for our friends out west I think. Radar ugly for a lot of CT. It's actually heavy snow here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I should rephrase.. Looks pretty lame for our friends out west I think. Radar ugly for a lot of CT. It's actually heavy snow here right now. Came down nicely in that heavy burst. Now moderate snow with very tiny flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: Came down nicely in that heavy burst. Now moderate snow with very tiny flakes Already an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 RAP really trying to hone in on eastern areas for some CJ snows through the afternoon tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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