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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman
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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I look at everything with the exception of the snow maps. Don't care for them. Soundings do show some nice omega into the snow growth zone so I'm sure it will come down quite nicely in spots. But we're relying on a very narrow band of heavier snow to produce more than 2-3''. I'm thinking we see more in the way of embedded heavier echos (so very brief over a particular location) and maybe a 3-4 hour window of heavier snows (maybe like 1/2'' per hour rates) 

Ryan the King Met of CT has 3-6 “ as an FYI 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I look at everything with the exception of the snow maps. Don't care for them. Soundings do show some nice omega into the snow growth zone so I'm sure it will come down quite nicely in spots. But we're relying on a very narrow band of heavier snow to produce more than 2-3''. I'm thinking we see more in the way of embedded heavier echos (so very brief over a particular location) and maybe a 3-4 hour window of heavier snows (maybe like 1/2'' per hour rates) 

BOX. Thinking 1 to 2 inch an hour rates for a couple of hours.. guess time will tell

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

BOX. Thinking 1 to 2 inch an hour rates for a couple of hours.. guess time will tell

2"/hr may be a stretch, but 1" is definitely doable between 06-12z depending on where in SNE you are located. There is a pretty good crosshair signal briefly for most Bufkit locations.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

2"/hr may be a stretch, but 1" is definitely doable between 06-12z depending on where in SNE you are located. There is a pretty good crosshair signal briefly for most Bufkit locations.

The NAM is impressive with that at BDL 15 units of omega at 6z in the SGZ. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And that's around the time that Bufkit accumulates 1, 1.6, and 0.8" over a 3 hour stretch.

I'm just not sure how much to buy into that. The HRRR nearly isn't as impressive and actually seems to indicate a bit more in the way of subsidence. Still have a pretty strongly confluent flow over the region too with a bit of dry air...I guess we saturate but there is a chance the northern fringe of the precip gets eaten away. I could see the heavier banding like southern CT or over Long Island if it were to happen 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'm just not sure how much to buy into that. The HRRR nearly isn't as impressive and actually seems to indicate a bit more in the way of subsidence. Still have a pretty strongly confluent flow over the region too with a bit of dry air...I guess we saturate but there is a chance the northern fringe of the precip gets eaten away. I could see the heavier banding like southern CT or over Long Island if it were to happen 

That's an interesting battle tonight, the HRRR vs. the NAM. They both have a similar look at the current time but diverge pretty good by tomorrow morning.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm just not sure how much to buy into that. The HRRR nearly isn't as impressive and actually seems to indicate a bit more in the way of subsidence. Still have a pretty strongly confluent flow over the region too with a bit of dry air...I guess we saturate but there is a chance the northern fringe of the precip gets eaten away. I could see the heavier banding like southern CT or over Long Island if it were to happen 

RPaSjCO.jpg

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's an interesting battle tonight, the HRRR vs. the NAM. They both have a similar look at the current time but diverge pretty good by tomorrow morning.

I think the NAM has the right idea about a band developing, however, I think it's handing of it is rather poor. The confluence and subsidence isn't really going to change much moving forward. I think this is something that ends up "suppressing" the precipitation and sort of eats away at the northern fringe of it. The NAM also seems a bit off with how far north it develops the best fronto. 

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I'm a bit surprised to see this range for my hood.

Tonight
A chance of snow this evening, then snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 20. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Washingtons Birthday
Snow with a chance of freezing drizzle in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm a bit surprised to see this range for my hood.

Tonight
A chance of snow this evening, then snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 20. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Washingtons Birthday
Snow with a chance of freezing drizzle in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Nearly identical to the snowfall forecast in Enfield.

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26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I like a general 3-5 for CT south of BDL to Tolland to N RI to Scooter w spot 6 in SE mass (also E slope Berks)

1-3” North of rte 2 to n of LWM

2-4 in between 

 

Good call imo....I had a general 2-5", but I won't be surprised if most spots at my latitude are more like 2-3".....I have the 4-5" range to account for some mid level banding, which may not be overly extensive given the mid levels opening upon approach, but should still be a factor imo.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very surprising there’s few maps on here with 6” with slightly higher amounts. There’s a lot of support for quite a few 5-7” amounts south of 90. There’s a bunch of higher maps elesewhere on tv and BOX , just not here . Will be interesting to see who wins 

I think some of it is skepticism based on the fact that this isn't a slam dunk, and anything that has been in question has gone to $hit this season.

I can see how many of us can bust low, and would love for it to happen....hopefully the attenuation of that wave slows....but usually ceilings are reached and eclipsed when a system is amplifying upon approach, not decaying.

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