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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman
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Just now, weathafella said:

Temperatures are coldest today near the water.  BOS is 32 with a 070 wind vector.  Ocean is as cold as it gets.  Won’t hurt tomorrow.

That is why I don't think we mix, that would be the only reason people are predicting mixing on the Cape.  Storm doesn't track closer than the benchmark.  Also the HRRR is stronger with the return of moisture into SNE.  The latest run which is 21z

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For such a small storm this is sure a bit of a complex forecast. The indications of a narrow band or perhaps moderate...maybe heavy snow is quite interesting. Part of me is wondering if some of the latest trends towards a more potent band are a bit overdone...the 18z NAM develops a pretty intense looking area of fronto right over N CT, but the question is why? The degree of WAA doesn't seem that particularly intense and temperature gradients across a horizontal distance and vertically (I don't think) are anything big to right home about. Bufkit soundings do show sufficient ice crystals, but RH is a little questionable. 

I went C-2'' yesterday for CT...I guess may bump to 1-3'' (I could see some getting 4'' I suppose), but sort of a fine line to rely on what may be a narrow band/zone of snow to yield widespread amounts of 4''. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For such a small storm this is sure a bit of a complex forecast. The indications of a narrow band or perhaps moderate...maybe heavy snow is quite interesting. Part of me is wondering if some of the latest trends towards a more potent band are a bit overdone...the 18z NAM develops a pretty intense looking area of fronto right over N CT, but the question is why? The degree of WAA doesn't seem that particularly intense and temperature gradients across a horizontal distance and vertically (I don't think) are anything big to right home about. Bufkit soundings do show sufficient ice crystals, but RH is a little questionable. 

I went C-2'' yesterday for CT...I guess may bump to 1-3'' (I could see some getting 4'' I suppose), but sort of a fine line to rely on what may be a narrow band/zone of snow to yield widespread amounts of 4''. 

You do look at every piece of guidance right? There’s not one piece of guidance only showing c-2 or even 1-3” for CT

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

That is why I don't think we mix, that would be the only reason people are predicting mixing on the Cape.  Storm doesn't track closer than the benchmark.  Also the HRRR is stronger with the return of moisture into SNE.  The latest run which is 21z

I mean the models that mix you mix you because of a warm layer between 900 and 800 mb, not boundary layer temps. So I don't think the water was ever a factor really.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You do look at every piece of guidance right? 

I look at everything with the exception of the snow maps. Don't care for them. Soundings do show some nice omega into the snow growth zone so I'm sure it will come down quite nicely in spots. But we're relying on a very narrow band of heavier snow to produce more than 2-3''. I'm thinking we see more in the way of embedded heavier echos (so very brief over a particular location) and maybe a 3-4 hour window of heavier snows (maybe like 1/2'' per hour rates) 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I mean the models that mix you mix you because of a warm layer between 900 and 800 mb, not boundary layer temps. So I don't think the water was ever a factor really.

Why is there a warm layer?  It must be the primary tracking that far north into northern PA.  Latest HIRES guidance backs off the rain mix.

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