Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman
 Share

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

According to the Euro, just south of 84 will see a bit of a mix at some point, but had more moisture this run. Snowfall wise, there was a strip of 4-6 inches from Danbury up to Waterbury on eastward..looked much better than 6z...

You're probably fine. Inland enough and with a bit of elevation. I was referring more to my area four miles off the water. Was just hoping to get one all-snow event this winter, but doesn't seem to be in the cards. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z hrrr has accumulating snow over by 7am for wct. Just a general 1-3” across the state.

Sounds like what the HRRR did during the January 13-14th event in DC.   It showed the NORLUN as just a couple of flurries and was off by 4-6" Not saying it's that bad here, but I'd use other models for this event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z hrrr has accumulating snow over by 7am for wct. Just a general 1-3” across the state.

It has been showing that for a few runs now, hopefully just the hrrr being what it is outside of 6 hrs. That being said, this winter has found every way not to snow around here, so maybe it's right. At least we dont have to fight the mid-feb sun angle...lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

I don't have experience using HREFs.... do you have thoughts on their performance relative to other short-term guidance for winter weather, and what timeframe they become useful? TIA

All I could find online:

"HREF version 2.0 will be implemented in November 2017 and makes it more like the SSEO. It adds a new member from a second HiresW WRF-ARW run configured similarly to the National Severe Storms Laboratory ARW run. The 24-hour time lag used in HREF 1.0 is reduced to the two most recent runs for each system."

It really IS other short term guidance. It poor man's ensemble that includes the hi-res NAM, ARW, NMM, and NSSL WRF. So it gives a good idea of what the hi-res models are doing, but also comes with QPF caveats that hi-res models come with (e.g. too much terrain influence at times).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You're probably fine. Inland enough and with a bit of elevation. I was referring more to my area four miles off the water. Was just hoping to get one all-snow event this winter, but doesn't seem to be in the cards. 

Hopefully that bit of warm air aloft dissipates as we get closer and non of us have to worry about it. I'm a few miles south of 84, so it's kind of a toss up...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 3k NAM has been one of the more consistent pieces, less generous to near the pike and north.  It also continues the theme of this being a 3-5 inch deal in the goods, with the odd lolly.

The overall output of the NAM just looks odd though.  I can buy it flipping near the coast, unfortunately, but I don't buy such a nice even producer, off such an ugly, weak piece of energy.

It's just nice to have something to track.  It'd be nicer if there was a higher ceiling on this event, but beggars can't be choosers, and whether it's 2-3 inches with some slop down here, or 4 or 5 inches, I've finally got a realistic opportunity to show the kid what snow actually is, and watch him flip out.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to say those Kuchera maps, or any snow maps for that matter, are just not great. Clear stripe of warning snowfall through SNE. 

Actually breaking down lift, RH, and temps in Bufkit and the same NAM would struggle to 4". There is good lift over BDL between 03-07z, but definite drying concerns after that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I have to say those Kuchera maps, or any snow maps for that matter, are just not great. Clear stripe of warning snowfall through SNE. 

Actually breaking down lift, RH, and temps in Bufkit and the same NAM would struggle to 4". There is good lift over BDL between 03-07z, but definite drying concerns after that. 

:)  ...you've bothered to analyze, and props for that effort ... You've come to what we've all suspected - or at least I ...  Those products usually I cut in half as a perfunctory first requirement per their usage..

I come to find that even in the best circumstances, verification will never tally 100 % of those fantasies.  ...About 80 tops, but that's for upper tier events with huge environmental controlling parameters in play.

In situ like this is an autopilot 1/2 er.

What's liable to happen now just because we're having this discussion is... some unforeseen mechanics will stripe a foot across the region ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...