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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman
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11 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

What kind of ratios are we talking about? Doesn’t seem overly cold, 10:1, 9:1?

Yeah esp down south. The best omega is below DGZ. At least on the NAM and GFS it is. I don't have cross sections for other guidance. 

There may be a band of good ratios further north where the crosshair sig is present. 

The wildcard is what ratios look like during lingering IVT stuff. Low levels get pretty cold so it could be decent. Esp near the coast where salt nuclei are dense in the atmosphere. 

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19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Still some decent spread in guidance pretty close in. I like 2-4” for most... maybe an isolated 5 spot for someone if everything breaks right 

2-3” will be a common number I think.

I think if everything breaks right..it would be like 5-7" spot 8". But I think 2-5" is reasonable with the assumption it doesnt

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The low-level Atlantic Ocean moisture is developing off the Cape this morning, low-level clouds are developing as easterly to southerly flow develops ahead of parent low before it weakens and transfers energy to the secondary low (coastal storm).  This appears like a just south of the benchmark track will suffice for the area.  I will go with the southern guidance like the RGEM/HRRR/EURO.  I don't think the Cape mixes, but perhaps the islands will mix.  I still like my map from earlier this morning.

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9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The low-level Atlantic Ocean moisture is developing off the Cape this morning, low-level clouds are developing as easterly to southerly flow develops ahead of parent low before it weakens and transfers energy to the secondary low (coastal storm).  This appears like a just south of the benchmark track will suffice for the area.  I will go with the southern guidance like the RGEM/HRRR/EURO.  I don't think the Cape mixes, but perhaps the islands will mix.  I still like my map from earlier this morning.

Hey James , should you rain at some point in Harwich what will you say....” I shouldn’t have ignored the Oc 850 line bc I didn’t want it to rain, I’m Just passionate”

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hey James , should you rain at some point in Harwich what will you say....” I shouldn’t have ignored the Oc 850 line bc I didn’t want it to rain, in Just passionate”

If it rains, I was wrong, I never been ignorant and say I was never wrong, I say when I am wrong very often more so than most people ever in this world.  Even if we rain for a bit, the GFS still produces a half foot of snow on Chatham.

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