wxsniss Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Not just more juiced... the surface low tucks in closer and a little later... verbatim that would be 4-8" for a good chunk of SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 That's sweet. Really jacked it up into a widespread solid all-snow QPF event all the sudden. Really pulling for you guys, always fun when they jack up as you approach zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 It gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Comtinues from 18z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 The upper level mechanics are good. I'm not shocked this is trending more robust. The tendency is to weaken these robust southern shortwaves a little too quickly...we've seen it this year already on some other events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Scooter melts, now he jacks. It’s the easiest recipe to receive snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Still have my caution flags about DGZ RH for most of the day Monday over SNE, but there is definitely like a 4-5 hour window there Sunday night where SNE can do some work. HRRRX is showing around near 1"/hr rates for areas between 03 and 09z. Could definitely see someone pull 4-5" before the radar shreds. Eastern areas probably have a better chance to see things linger. And I would not be shocked at all if someone like Mitch pulled out a decent event. The forcing just deforms right over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3Km Nammy is further south with best QPF line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Soundings still on the dry side in the DGZ 15z-18z during the IVT stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: Soundings still on the dry side in the DGZ 15z-18z during the IVT stuff Yeah, I wouldn't bank on much snow after 12z for SNE. Could it happen? Sure, but I wouldn't be betting the house on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Defintely an increase in that s/w vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Defintely an increase in that s/w vs 18z. Troughing is better with each successive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Troughing is better with each successive run. I’d watch it getting to good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’d watch it getting to good for you. You mean it could become a mix? Or heavier snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You mean it could become a mix? Or heavier snowfall? Mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Still have my caution flags about DGZ RH for most of the day Monday over SNE, but there is definitely like a 4-5 hour window there Sunday night where SNE can do some work. HRRRX is showing around near 1"/hr rates for areas between 03 and 09z. Could definitely see someone pull 4-5" before the radar shreds. Eastern areas probably have a better chance to see things linger. And I would not be shocked at all if someone like Mitch pulled out a decent event. The forcing just deforms right over that area. The low levels get pretty cold later in the game..like -8 to -10 near 850-900mb. The low level IVT stuff could do okay over E MA with salt nuclei on that profile. There's a window of a few hours though in between the initial surge and the later IVT stuff where the midlevels dryslot and it's not yet that cold in the lower levels. Could be even some FZDZ briefly during that or really ugly flakes. Here's ORH at 21z. I kind of like the light NE to E flow in the 900-950 layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The low levels get pretty cold later in the game..like -8 to -10 near 850-900mb. The low level IVT stuff could do okay over E MA with salt nuclei on that profile. There's a window of a few hours though in between the initial surge and the later IVT stuff where the midlevels dryslot and it's not yet that cold in the lower levels. Could be even some FZDZ briefly during that or really ugly flakes. Here's ORH at 21z. I kind of like the light NE to E flow in the 900-950 layer. E MA could definitely benefit. The HRRR is showing a pretty uniform simulated reflectivity, which supports the DGZ staying saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Still have my caution flags about DGZ RH for most of the day Monday over SNE, but there is definitely like a 4-5 hour window there Sunday night where SNE can do some work. HRRRX is showing around near 1"/hr rates for areas between 03 and 09z. Could definitely see someone pull 4-5" before the radar shreds. Eastern areas probably have a better chance to see things linger. And I would not be shocked at all if someone like Mitch pulled out a decent event. The forcing just deforms right over that area. Agree, posted the same. Looks like things get more showery and snowgrowth worsens after about 12z Mon. Some of the accumulation depicted thereafter comes from more showery activity with poor snowgrowth unless lower level lift can produce something, so the 6+" spots in the 4-8" range will be rare I think. As currently depicted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You mean it could become a mix? Or heavier snowfall? Mix, obviously. As on the nam. Which would have me with 2 with a low warning level event in every direction, and the cape in the slop too. Not exactly an unfamiliar position. I tend to think there's a limit on this thing though, and it's one or those mediocre events we do ok in. In tbe circumstances this winter, that feels like a win to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, NeonPeon said: Mix, obviously. As on the nam. Which would have me with 2 with a low warning level event in every direction, and the cape in the slop too. Not exactly an unfamiliar position. I tend to think there's a limit on this thing though, and it's one or those mediocre events we do ok in. In tbe circumstances this winter, that feels like a win to me. This is becoming less mediocre and a more impactful event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3-6" event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Don’t forget to log off a third of NAM qpf amounts...although I’m not sure if that old rule of thumb still holds true Looks like a nice little event. I hope Scooter, Diane, and James do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Especially if the main shortwave becomes sharper tomorrow by 18z guidance we could have a full fledged snowstorm threat at that juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Don’t forget to log off a third of NAM qpf amounts...although I’m not sure if that old rule of thumb still holds true Looks like a nice little event. I hope Scooter, Diane, and James do well It only holds true if it is the only model showing the amounts it would, however, the consensus guidance shows the same amounts, so you can discredit the NAM QPF amounts like everyone wants too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 54 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: Here comes the NAM... more amped through 33. For once this season, that isn't cringeworthy for most.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It only holds true if it is the only model showing the amounts it would, however, the consensus guidance shows the same amounts, so you can discredit the NAM QPF amounts like everyone wants too. Flag on the play. NAM is the highest QPF amount for CHH, and especially so for interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Flag on the play. NAM is the highest QPF amount for CHH, and especially so for interior SNE. Actually GFS is the highest for CHH, 00z NAM shows less QPF for CHH than the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Never seen the board so excited for 3" of snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Flag on the play. NAM is the highest QPF amount for CHH, and especially so for interior SNE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Whineminster said: Never seen the board so excited for 3" of snow! LOL. I was about to comment how slow the board is--folks have tossed it in. We'll get a few inches, but it's a day late and a dollar short for folks to really get sucked in this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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