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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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29 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

LOL at the long range 6z GFS.  Basically the entire east coast will be shut down after that one.  

The track is almost identical to Wilma until it gets past Florida.

System would have quite the PRE as well.

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36 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

LOL at the long range 6z GFS.  Basically the entire east coast will be shut down after that one.  

Maybe this is IT?????  The End!!  lol

 

Sometimes the big ones shine a lil brighter out there in the distance...

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe this is IT?????  The End!!  lol

 

Sometimes the big ones shine a lil brighter out there in the distance...

It helps that the models aren't really developing the system until it reaches the islands and by then it's really far South and West for a recurve OTS.

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95L up to 60% on the 5 day 8:00 am NHC update.

f738e73989692303fb742c53dc4f3619.jpg&key=f4bd07133f6c9137054efe65bd6e394c0d17734d2f0cf2d935bfbcb16ff27f32

 

 

.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

 

Delete word and correct number

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern

Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few

hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.

Limited development of this system is anticipated today or

tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more

favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical

depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the

west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over

the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this

disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and

gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida

during the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z brings it right through the Bahamas including the islands that just got the eye of Dorian...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh204-234.gif

Well, if there's an upside to that....it's very Weak.  Sure it'll be a lot of rain perhaps...but a 992 is not much of a Cane....   I know, I know, it's the last thing that area needs.  But it probably won't play out that way anyway.

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41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well, if there's an upside to that....it's very Weak.  Sure it'll be a lot of rain perhaps...but a 992 is not much of a Cane....   I know, I know, it's the last thing that area needs.  But it probably won't play out that way anyway.

Dorian was also progged to be very weak

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Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_11.png

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2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

12z brings it right through the Bahamas including the islands that just got the eye of Dorian...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh204-234.gif

Most of Abaco Island and Grand Bahama are already destroyed. The only downside is that it could stop some of the recovery effort, but the damage is already done.

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36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_11.png

Potential Gloria redux in the making. Long way to go though.

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40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in.

Yeah, and take a look at what the EPS control run does with it past hour 240. Yipes!

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1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

Yeah, and take a look at what the EPS control run does with it past hour 240. Yipes!

Don't currently have access. 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Don't currently have access. 

932mb near Boston. Edit: That was the 0Z cycle. 12Z cycle isn't out that far yet.

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7 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

932mb near Boston. Edit: That was the 0Z cycle. 12Z cycle isn't out that far yet.

12z GFS has it up to Boston too at 288h, although I'm sure it'll change. 

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The trend today is to the east with 95L, the ICON and UKIE keep the storm moving N or NNW off the east coast of Florida and it sounds like the 18Z Euro took a big step in that direction.....if that is the case then this could potentially end up a stronger storm and close enough to directly impact areas still dealing with the effects of Dorian....

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Something I would like to point out as a reminder about the NHC Outlook's hatched regions with respect to potential cyclone development: These are not intended to be a representation of track nor to be confused as track guidance, they are merely to show a most probable region for a disturbance / area of invest to undergo cyclogenesis. Too many times I see reference to these discussed as forecast track, when in reality, any cyclogenesis that occurs could begin to track towards another direction once a system has been classified. For example, 95L's sharp wave axis or area of low pressure could form a vortex at highest forecast probability anywhere within that hatched zone, but the classified depression or tropical cyclone could immediately begin tracking west from initialization, north or even northeast.

 

I am not accusing anyone of this in current discussion with 95L, but I have certainly seen it done here in the past and elsewhere. Additonally, this is also why the NHC will usually use arrows from an invest's location to a hatched region when they feel it will not develop at its current location. In that case, you can assume some track for the disturbance in an official sense, but only to the region of expected higher probs for cyclogenesis. Before any of this, it's just model slag discussion really.

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To say the Euro had a different solution overnight on 95L is an understatement.

Cat 3 off Carolinas and then landfall in southern NJ as a Cat 2.

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