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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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On ‎7‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 9:31 AM, MattPetrulli said:

Looks like most tropical activity is done for the month unless we get quick development close to home. Wave train should be in business towards August, however.

There is a 700mb vort northwest of Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola by about 100-140 miles, there is also a surface low developing presently, with a low-level circulation developing.  There is a strong hint of this occurring by watching the low-level cumulus field.

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Despite two invests since Hurricane Barry, it looks like the Atlantic is closed for the rest of the month. That's about what I expected.

Longer term indications have me favoring an active peak at this point, but let's see where we are by mid-August. 

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Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch. 

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19 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch. 

image.png.6ffaeafe6286c36b438bb801c2abe853.png

Nice call out on this. MOB talks about it in their morning short term:

 

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...A large upper
trof extending from the eastern states into the north central Gulf
steadily weakens during the period while an upper high remains
anchored over the 4 Corners region. Another upper ridge over the
western Atlantic gradually begins to build into the eastern Gulf
meanwhile as the upper trof weakens. At the beginning of the
period, a cold front will be located just off the mid Atlantic
coast, across northern Florida, and extending westward across the
northern Gulf. The frontal boundary lingers generally in place
through Thursday night and gradually weakens. That said, there is
the potential for a surface low to develop somewhere along the
weakening frontal boundary, and this development would occur in a
rather weakly sheared environment (generally <10 knots 1000-400
mb). While nearly all guidance shows no significant development
of a surface low along the boundary, weak boundaries like this
that stall in the Gulf within a weakly sheared environment have
later on sometimes spawned tropical systems. For that reason, the
National Hurricane Center has introduced a 20 percent chance of
tropical cyclone development mainly within the time period
beginning Thursday and lasting into Saturday. Note that this
potential system is not associated with Tropical Depression Three,
currently located between the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula,
which is expected to meanwhile drift northward. For the forecast,
have gone with mostly dry conditions through the period except for
small pops near the coast and will need to closely monitor for
the possibility of a system developing in the Gulf and how this
might affect the area. Highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the
upper 80s then around 90 on Thursday. Lows Wednesday night range
from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast, with a modest
warming trend for Thursday night when lows range from the mid 60s
well inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast. A low risk of
rip currents is expected through the period. /29
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The one very deep wave over interior Africa already has a decent surface low in conjunction to an abundant moisture envelope. The CCKW should still be in place when it emerges into the Atlantic MDR for the first week of August, so we'll have something to watch. However, keep in mind that Azores 500 mb ridging is still kicking in overdrive right now. Though upper level Westerlies have relaxed out of the W. Atl and Caribbean, deep MDR development is still questionable until strong Easterly mid-level flow can relax somewhat. Easterly shear is still a deterrent and it easing will allow SAL to relax, amplifying moisture and convective instability out of the southern ITCZ.

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Figured it was a matter of time before we got the lemon. Convection looks robust today. We'll see how it holds up as it runs into that ribbon of shear and dry air to the northwest. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is
expected due to interaction with land.  However, the system is
forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the
week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Figured it was a matter of time before we got the lemon. Convection looks robust today. We'll see how it holds up as it runs into that ribbon of shear and dry air to the northwest. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is
expected due to interaction with land.  However, the system is
forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the
week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

WxWatcher, I don't think the wave is running into the shear, there is a large upper-level anticyclone over the wave axis and area of highest vorticity at the surface.  This upper-level anticyclone will push and prevent the shear from interfering with the wave and its potential development.  Satellite imagery suggests there is a surface trough or area of convergence in the low levels that are developing under the convection.  Also, our tropical wave entering the Atlantic Ocean from the west African coastline is showing tremendous signs of a surface low present and it is spinning already with deep convection.  Could see two tropical storms develop this upcoming work week.  The eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave could be a long term threat to the Eastern USA.

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11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

WxWatcher, I don't think the wave is running into the shear, there is a large upper-level anticyclone over the wave axis and area of highest vorticity at the surface.  This upper-level anticyclone will push and prevent the shear from interfering with the wave and its potential development.  Satellite imagery suggests there is a surface trough or area of convergence in the low levels that are developing under the convection.  Also, our tropical wave entering the Atlantic Ocean from the west African coastline is showing tremendous signs of a surface low present and it is spinning already with deep convection.  Could see two tropical storms develop this upcoming work week.  The eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave could be a long term threat to the Eastern USA.

wg8shr.GIF

Very strong area of shear+land interference 

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

wg8shr.GIF

Very strong area of shear+land interference 

I think it is safe as long as the ULAC stays with it and develops overhead.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern
Caribbean Sea has decreased since yesterday.  Atmospheric conditions
as well as land effects should inhibit the development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward for the next several days.
This disturbance, however, could still produce an increase in
cloudiness and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Greater Antilles
and portions of the Bahamas during the next few days.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

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Disturbance near the Cape Verdes is up to 40% for the 5-Day Outlook.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.
This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas.
Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late
this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

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GFS makes this a strong hurricane but recurves just before it would impact the Southeast U.S. 

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9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

GFS makes this a strong hurricane but recurves just before it would impact the Southeast U.S. 

That would be a beautiful thing. Let’s see if it can get through the sheer zone first.

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12z euro doesn't do much with it and makes it stay weak for a while. 18z legacy GFS and regular GFS bring it further west however. Another thing, brings PR more into play as GFS brings a strong TS/cat 1 into PR.

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12z euro doesn't do much with it and makes it stay weak for a while. 18z legacy GFS and regular GFS bring it further west however. Another thing, brings PR more into play as GFS brings a strong TS/cat 1 into PR.
Yeah the 12z ECMWF has some very strong 400-300 mb southwesterly winds moving in a line from Cuba across the Bahamas and Bermuda in the 5-7 day range. The GFS is more aligned with the Hudson to Nova Scotia trough and better supportive stacked southerly flow. Hence the GFS has a borderline major hurricane rounding the western periphery of backing 580 dm heights versus the ECMWF which is NOT southerly stacked in flow, which just decapitates any tropical entity that would dare move near the SE CONUS / Bahamas.
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27 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
55 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:
12z euro doesn't do much with it and makes it stay weak for a while. 18z legacy GFS and regular GFS bring it further west however. Another thing, brings PR more into play as GFS brings a strong TS/cat 1 into PR.

Yeah the 12z ECMWF has some very strong 400-300 mb southwesterly winds moving in a line from Cuba across the Bahamas and Bermuda in the 5-7 day range. The GFS is more aligned with the Hudson to Nova Scotia trough and better supportive stacked southerly flow. Hence the GFS has a borderline major hurricane rounding the western periphery of backing 580 dm heights versus the ECMWF which is NOT southerly stacked in flow, which just decapitates any tropical entity that would dare move near the SE CONUS / Bahamas.

Yeah it’s a really interesting and fragile setup. I’m not sure which one will be right. Some of those EPS members were pretty strong. 

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Yeah, the reason the GFS models bomb this into a beast is because of an amazing amount of outflow channels it gets near the Bahamas. One off to the north, one to the southeast into an upper level low, and another one into an upper low feature in the Gulf of Mexico. 

ice_screenshot_20190731-211955.png

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather stretching from central and eastern
Cuba northward to the central and southeastern Bahamas is forecast
to move northwestward tonight and Thursday, and then move
northward on across Florida and the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.
This system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Florida during the
next few days. Conditions could become marginally conducive for
development over the weekend while the system turns and accelerates
northeastward off the southeastern U.S. coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

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00z GFS brings it close to FL, then stalls it off the coast for 2 days as a major hurricane, before drifting SW. 00z Legacy brings it into Miami as a TS/cat 1.

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Looks like the 12z GFS  never really fully develops it  and takes a weak system harmlessly out to sea 

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2 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Looks like the 12z GFS  never really fully develops it  and takes a weak system harmlessly out to sea 

My moneys on that scenario right now. We need overall shear to relax and the atmosphere to moisten more as we get deeper into the heart of the season. Too many things need to be just perfect for this one. 

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On 8/1/2019 at 12:26 AM, Windspeed said:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather stretching from central and eastern
Cuba northward to the central and southeastern Bahamas is forecast
to move northwestward tonight and Thursday, and then move
northward on across Florida and the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.
This system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Florida during the
next few days. Conditions could become marginally conducive for
development over the weekend while the system turns and accelerates
northeastward off the southeastern U.S. coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

Shows you how fickle forecasting tropical systems can be

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser
Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

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Agree with the increase in storms. Things are quiet and will likely remain that way through late August. OTOH, September and October are shaping up to be very active. ENSO has transitioned to neutral into at least early Winter. Westerly wind shear should be low across the Atlantic MDR. Easterly windshear should become more favorable by late August as the SPH backs north and surface pressures fall. Could be a really interesting setup for the MDR into the Caribbean and not just from a climatological perspective. SSTs/OHC temps and depth throughout the region is running above climo mean and will be conducive for TC development when atmospheric conditions improve.

 

 

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