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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb :lol:

Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands

It's almost the exact same route that Dorian took through the Caribbean.  Does anyone know how the GFS and Euro looked at this point for Dorian?  Tropical Tidbits only goes back to September 2.  I'd love to see the models from mid-August.

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5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola 

The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification.

 

Or the model is on crack.

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10 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification.

 

Or the model is on crack.

Ya, more like the model is on Crack...especially this far out.  

 

Interesting to see how it all evolves though going forward???

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe this is IT?????  The End!!  lol

 

Sometimes the big ones shine a lil brighter out there in the distance...

It helps that the models aren't really developing the system until it reaches the islands and by then it's really far South and West for a recurve OTS.

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95L up to 60% on the 5 day 8:00 am NHC update.

f738e73989692303fb742c53dc4f3619.jpg&key=f4bd07133f6c9137054efe65bd6e394c0d17734d2f0cf2d935bfbcb16ff27f32

 

 

.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

 

Delete word and correct number

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern

Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few

hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.

Limited development of this system is anticipated today or

tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more

favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical

depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the

west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over

the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this

disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and

gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida

during the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z brings it right through the Bahamas including the islands that just got the eye of Dorian...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh204-234.gif

Well, if there's an upside to that....it's very Weak.  Sure it'll be a lot of rain perhaps...but a 992 is not much of a Cane....   I know, I know, it's the last thing that area needs.  But it probably won't play out that way anyway.

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40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in.

Yeah, and take a look at what the EPS control run does with it past hour 240. Yipes!

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