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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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Yeah, it’s not quite there but you can tell it’s trying. The environment doesn’t look all that hostile for now. I think the track will be key to whether this survives long term.

It’ll be interesting to see what the 2pm odds are. I agree that they go up, probably significantly.

If this does become a TS, score one for the GFS op. The Euro op missed on this pretty hard. Sure, it continuously resolves the disturbance but hasn't even flirted with sub 1000 mb yet. The GFS has been on the feature for days and has had a number of runs at moderate TS strength.

 

If this does develop, it will probably impact the islands. Late term there will be an upper pv that should pull whatever remains into the Bahamas and near Fl / SE coast.

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Up to 70% probs. Per evening visible and shortwave, the cyclonic turning looks even more pronounced than earlier today. No doubt that the axis has indeed closed. However, that does not mean we have a confined low level vort. Mid level circulation, certainly, and even a broad low level cutoff, albeit weak. But the invest needs some robust convection. Like I said in an earlier thread, a good period of convection/MCS right over the cutoff, this thing increases vorticity and should be a go for cyclogenesis and classification.

 

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Hey, folks! Haven't been here in a while. :D Just wanted y'all to know my show is premiering at 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on Science Channel. It starts with a bang-- a double episode that brings you with me into the eye of Cat-5 Hurricane MICHAEL. Let me know what you think!

Here's the on-air promo:
 

 

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Hey, folks! Haven't been here in a while. Just wanted y'all to know my show is premiering at 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on Science Channel. It starts with a bang-- a double episode that brings you with me into the eye of Cat-5 Hurricane MICHAEL. Let me know what you think!

Here's the on-air promo:

 

 

This looks fantastic, Josh! Congratulations and keep an eye on Dorian. Things are looking a little more concerning for the SE CONUS tonight!

 

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18 hours ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Hey, folks! Haven't been here in a while. :D Just wanted y'all to know my show is premiering at 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on Science Channel. It starts with a bang-- a double episode that brings you with me into the eye of Cat-5 Hurricane MICHAEL. Let me know what you think!

Here's the on-air promo:
 

 

That’s bananas awesome!!! Super looking forward to it!! 

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23 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like we have two more waves coming off Africa that the Euro really likes developing over the past few runs...

Most of the hurricane seasons I tracked as a kid or teen wouldn't have activity until late September and October. Hurricane Keith October 2000, Hurricane Iris October 2001, Hurricane Lili October 2003, ect ect. If the climate models are correct, we could have some activity during this time.

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Won't be around for long, but TS Fernand has formed in the W GOM... will move west and make landfall in NE MX and dissipate in about 72 hours

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 95.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the northeast coast of Mexico from La Pesca to Barra del Tordo and
from Barra El Mezquital to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the
lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for
portions of these areas.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand
was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West.  Fernand
is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today.  A motion toward the west-northwest is
forecast tonight and Wednesday.  This motion could bring the center
of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late
Wednesday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves
inland.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on
the intensity.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Squalls with
gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area
along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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40 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

The one coming off Cape Verde now looks almost certain to be a threat to shipping lanes only.  The orange coming out behind it also looks like it might recurve.

Not according to the 12z GFS in fantasy land :lol:

 

We'll see every solution in the coming week. 

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18 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Why would this be the worst possible track and not one slamming into the Jersey sure say ? 

Because it would bring catastrophic storm surge flooding into Chesapeake Bay, NYC Harbor, and Boston Harbor, while bringing flooding rains and torrential winds to Washington, Baltimore, NJ, NYC, and Boston.   

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4 hours ago, cptcatz said:

The worst possible track a hurricane can take?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh366-384.gif

Hmmmm no. There are worse tracks it can take. It's flying and likely would weaken a lot more than depicted if it's just gonna travel over land from SC to Maine.

Either way, this storm will very likely not play out as shown here. It's one to watch but any hurricane touching land north of NC is hard to believe until 24-36 hours out. At least for me.

Call me skeptical

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6 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Hmmmm no. There are worse tracks it can take. It's flying and likely would weaken a lot more than depicted if it's just gonna travel over land from SC to Maine.

Either way, this storm will very likely not play out as shown here. It's one to watch but any hurricane touching land north of NC is hard to believe until 24-36 hours out. At least for me.

Call me skeptical

Absolutely.    Everybody is on the "Catastrophic Train" of late....lol.   It's real easy to get caught up in the Hype(like lots here do) when that's all you see on the news/weather channel etc etc...   And terms like Devastating and Catastrophic become common phrases for things many times that aren't even close to that type of magnitude.   What happened in the Bahamas was Catastrophic and what happened in Florence last year was too; and Maria in P.R.; Harvey, Katrina, Andrew, Hugo etc etc....those do deserve the extreme terms put on them.  

 

And like you said, the chances of any tropical storm/hurricane hitting north of NC is rare...it happens from time to time as we all know, but it's a rare occurrence, and has a 99% chance of not happening as the Goofus just depicted.  But as Weather enthusiasts, it's interesting to entertain the possibilities nonetheless.   

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It's not even worth discussing but a track up the coast like that has been seen many times including most recently Irene. Biggest threat with those storms is inland river flooding. You really need a track like the 12z GFS showed yesterday to get meaningful storm surge into the NYC area and New England.

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8 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Hmmmm no. There are worse tracks it can take. It's flying and likely would weaken a lot more than depicted if it's just gonna travel over land from SC to Maine.

Either way, this storm will very likely not play out as shown here. It's one to watch but any hurricane touching land north of NC is hard to believe until 24-36 hours out. At least for me.

Call me skeptical

Is it possible for a track pattern to, more or less, lock in with tropical systems? As always .....

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