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February 17th, 2019 Snow Event


cyclone77
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advisory map looks a little strange with LOT bypassing a good portion of its CWA. Though I agree 2-4" over 12-18 hr period on a Sunday in late winter it probably is nor necessary.
ILX advisory for their northeastern counties is for inclusion of freezing drizzle on top of snow accums up to 2". Without that, they probably wouldn't have issued. If freezing drizzle looks more likely to occur down in southern LOT CWA, we may need to expand the advisory and perhaps include the Chicago metro counties not in headline for map purposes. Agree that a long duration 2-3/2-4" snowfall on a Sunday otherwise probably doesn't need one.

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22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Is it just me or does that snow band seem more north than models forecasted? Precip needs to fill in south or areas south of I80 are going to be in trouble. Hrrr and rap both show precip blowing up in the next few hours in MO but I'm skeptical 

Not sure but the snow is very heavy just south of I80 in Des Moines and we already have a few inches. The snow is expected to continue for upwards of 24 hours from now so to answer your question I’m pretty sure stuff will fill in south for us. Can’t say for sure areas east. 

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7 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Not sure but the snow is very heavy just south of I80 in Des Moines and we already have a few inches. The snow is expected to continue for upwards of 24 hours from now so to answer your question I’m pretty sure stuff will fill in south for us. Can’t say for sure areas east. 

Yea you guys are golden. Further east not so sure. I'm bored. Need something. Lol

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2 hours ago, Baum said:

I'm here.

Me Too! Lol. I love Winter and never get tired of it. We've certainly had a better Winter here then theyve had on the East Coast, but its been much better for the Western portion of the subforum.  Last Winter I ended up with 62.5" of snow, however about 53" had fallen by this point. So far this Winter season, I am at 23.9".

 

I see with this event Chicago is going to lock in an above average snow season. I had mentioned earlier, Chicago had only beaten Detroit one Winter out of the last 8. This Winter they are well ahead.  Detroit seasonal average is at 42.4", and so far this season, 24.2" has fallen so we have a ways to go. I am liking tomorrow for some fresh snow however.

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Model guidance, including hi res guidance has continued to struggle/waffle back and forth with the low level dry air across portions of northern Illinois. The most drastic runs were the extended HRRR/RAP runs yesterday along with many NAM runs as well. The last two GFS runs 0/6z have both trended a bit snowier and the 6z NAM and nest came in snowier as well (mainly talking for north central/northeast Illinois). To add to those models, the 9z RAP trended much snowier across a large portion of northern Illinois, including the Chicago metro area with 4-5" for DKB/ARR/DPA/ORD. If these higher amounts of 3-4" locally 5" across northeast Illinois/Chicago metro area end up verifying, this will be a big win for solely the RGEM which has held steady for many runs now showing those amounts. 

It is always interesting to watch setups like these with fairly good WAA and enough forcing run into dry easterly flow at the surface and what ends up winning out. The last few HRRR runs has trended toward the new guidance as well and is a bit snowier. 

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