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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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8 hours ago, Ji said:

dont mean to be negative so i will try to put a positive spin.... but we needed a big bomb cutter for the Tuesday/Wed storm. Instead we got a saturday surprise snowstorm...which also fell apart....and also ruined sundays chances. So basically we gained nothing from losing the bomb cutter except we lost everything

I brought up that possibility to Bob when the cutter went poof. Maybe I am doing this. These stupid fail scenarios I come up with (even before the models show that) end up right way way way too often. Maybe I should stop doing that. 

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Weren’t you paying attention.  Next year is 2016 without the fluke HECS. Then two Nina’s. But 2023 will be rocking...if the mjo doesn’t screw it up again.  

Well, 2023 - LOL! One note, heading to UK Week after next - remember that I will be working on the NAO - If it goes negative.. it was because of me..

In all seriousness.. I am truly not tracking after march 15.. We could get that MECS/HECS March 2 - 3 as I have believed when I keep looking at longer range! But for this theat - OVER

The fat lady sang, the curtain closed - the fork has been stuck, the last page turned. It was a fluke because it showed up all of a sudden!

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9 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Interesting how the further south the weekend storm goes the better the look for early week improves. 

At least you have a chance with the second one.  my yard will likely miss both now as my best hope was the Saturday threat. set my expectations too high in November.  Gotta go ugly early! 

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I brought up that possibility to Bob when the cutter went poof. Maybe I am doing this. These stupid fail scenarios I come up with (even before the models show that) end up right way way way too often. Maybe I should stop doing that. 

Cassandra!!! (For those who like Greek mythology) :lol:

But seriously, I do recall some of that discussion on whether the weekend system(s) trending weaker might actually be detrimental to the mid-week system, i.e., not providing something to hold the high in.  I'm kind of out for this weekend, beyond maybe seeing a bit of snow TV (if that?), and have come to terms with that.  But the entire medium range has just turned out all wrong for us.  Oh well...maybe it really is the weather being the weather despite all the prior positive indications.  Very frustrating though.  Hard to believe a couple days ago we were looking at upwards of 3 possible events, and now...well, it's like being sold a bill of goods!

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Weren’t you paying attention.  Next year is 2016 without the fluke HECS. Then two Nina’s. But 2023 will be rocking...if the mjo doesn’t screw it up again.  

HECS happen every 6-7 years so that sounds about right.

For the few of you that actually work, don’t forget to step away from your desk and enjoy the spring day!
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25 minutes ago, Amped said:

This setup took a huge dump. I had my concerns about it being a weak frontal wave, kind of like the day 3 bust we had in April.   Looks like the result will be similar, very lttile snow for anyone.

I remember the concern that the area getting snow would be narrow and a fail north or south was very possible. 

FV3 takes best moisture around Richmond.. pretty good snow in that line on FV3.. GFS - little more spread out and not quite as moist.

FV3 (weenie model)

image.png.479ec25a8f15c2c60f5bb8b8bbd1399f.png

GFS:

image.png.0ca08095a3f0f9057fc925d2e8b99354.png

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