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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Might as well. I’m Oat Cream IPAing it currently. What else is there to do since the best I’m now hoping for is a few high cirrus clouds to the south. My luck though...a cloudless sky with a blazing retina burning sun angle that skunks my deck beers. :lol:

This is what I am drinking. Good stuff. Didn't feel like forking over the bucks for the KBS, and this is not much different.

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Just now, Ji said:

we needed a south trend this past weekend--it went  north. We need a north trend this weekend--it goes south. It never ends

Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends.

Yea..i wasnt impressed with EPS....looked like transient cold as trough went east...the NAO was non existant...basically it was a terrible run unless you like seeing a few days of blue in the east

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I think the FV3 scored better than GFS for the Jan storm though? Maybe it's only better than the GFS when we're actually going to get snow 

FV3 isn't that garbage in short range. Did better than the GFS for the Jan storm and 12/09, but that is probably mostly because it tends to snow a lot more snow and those were both positive busts for areas they hit.

 

It almost looks like it wants to turn the Saturday storm into a coastal with that north-to-east heavy stripe.

 

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Nowcast for those in the edge like myself unless we get a north trend.  Coastal would be bad, I think, because the precip would colllapse toward the coastal. 

Yeah the fv3 looks similar to the rgem. Kind of has a northeast trajectory on the precip as it gets to the coast and precip collapses to the coast...

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Still think it comes north as we close. Not like December either when we needed a 200 mile shift.  We shall see.

I dont think it will shift north so much as the precip field will just be larger. That is what usually happens. The expanse of the precip field is under modeled.

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Agreed, I think we see a bump north tomorrow...it happens every time.  Unlike December, we don’t need it shift north from central NC. 

It doesn't happen every time.  Bumps north are common, but not inevitable.  Sometimes, it is just a southern slider and the bump north from a DC stripe from 2 days ago doesn't bump north.  It gets modeled further and further south and just stays as modeled.  Otherwise, I would never get snow imby!

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Interesting how the 1800 GFS run has pretty much lost the Tuesday event.  But it will be a close call on Saturday and as of right now, it looks like the winners will once again be D.C., northern and central VA and southern MD.   Not convinced it will be cold enough for all snow, even though the forcing will be stronger in certain areas of VA. which may lead to rain changing to snow.  Whoever gets the snow, I can't see anymore than 1-3" at most since surface temperatures on Saturday will be pretty marginal for accumulation.  Sunday still looks like a rain event for the most part with the thermal profiles not being very supportive of snow.   Maybe near the PA line can see more of a mix and some minor accumulation.  Saturday still looks to be the most interesting since a shift north is not out of the question.  As for Tuesday, I hope the GFS is correct and we don't get anything because if we do, it will just be snow or a mix, changing to rain by later in the day. 

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26 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

It doesn't happen every time.  Bumps north are common, but not inevitable.  Sometimes, it is just a southern slider and the bump north from a DC stripe from 2 days ago doesn't bump north.  It gets modeled further and further south and just stays as modeled.  Otherwise, I would never get snow imby!

True, not every time but more often than not.  And as clskinsfan points out, many times its that the northern edge of precip is underdone which improves 24H out.  

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