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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

it looks like how our storm yesterday looked for a while in modeling that ended up being a crap storm for DC metro. Congrats to you though

When I am in here I try to be metro centric as much as possible.  Besides in those setups rooting for you is good for me too because if you do OK then I can do GREAT.  When DC gets totally skunked I can eek out a pretty decent event like I did but a BIG time storm is not likely.  Usually for me to get 10" plus I need your area to get a few inches at least.  

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs was a net positive at 12z . Wave 1 north 

Wave 2 south...baby steps 

That is kind of the relationship I see here... stronger wave one will pull the boundary south for wave 2.  If we get the perfect balance we could get both.  Hell...get the absolute perfect balance...just enough wave one, get wave 2 south of us THEN bomb it out...and we get all 3!

Of course the glass half empty side says... the wrong balance and we fail fail fail 

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11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Quite frankly I think we need to root the opposite way for wave 2...I'm wondering if a cutter solution actually end up being better for the big system we aren't talking about in this thread...

if its close...root for snow.  We have no idea what mid week will look like by the time we get there.  No way you turn down snow now for snow later unless the snow now is pitiful and the threat later is a high probability blockbuster.  The only time I was mad about snow now vs later was in 2015 when we had a great amplifying trough with 2 waves and the frontrunner took a bit too much energy and ended up pulling what would have been a real blockbuster OTS.  AND...in my case it was only 2-3" so I was willing to kick that at a chance at a BIG snow a day later.  DC got like 4" so for them it was a better deal.  But in this case...next week is WAY out there, might not even be a big deal, and Sunday has decent potential if it breaks right so just root for the snow in front of you.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

if its close...root for snow.  We have no idea what mid week will look like by the time we get there.  No way you turn down snow now for snow later unless the snow now is pitiful and the threat later is a high probability blockbuster.  The only time I was mad about snow now vs later was in 2015 when we had a great amplifying trough with 2 waves and the frontrunner took a bit too much energy and ended up pulling what would have been a real blockbuster OTS.  AND...in my case it was only 2-3" so I was willing to kick that at a chance at a BIG snow a day later.  DC got like 4" so for them it was a better deal.  But in this case...next week is WAY out there, might not even be a big deal, and Sunday has decent potential if it breaks right so just root for the snow in front of you.  

I guess I'm a bit more down on wave 1 because it feels like a DC special again that central MD may miss out on (unless it trends north to a perfect spot). But did wave 2 look much better this run? It's still a cutter here, isn't it?

And overall, the models seem locked into the fact that we are gonna have a huge moisture bomb coming right at us a week from now. So unless that changes...heck yeah I wanna root for anything that'll help that be mostly or all snow!

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess I'm a bit more down on wave 1 because it feels like a DC special again that central MD may miss out on (unless it trends north to a perfect spot). But did wave 2 look much better this run? It's still a cutter here, isn't it?

And overall, the models seem locked into the fact that we are gonna have a huge moisture bomb coming right at us a week from now. So unless that changes...heck yeah I wanna root for anything that'll help that be mostly or all snow!

We will probably miss Saturday south, Sunday north, and next week will end up ejecting in 2 waves...the weak frontrunner will go south and the main one will amp up and cut.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We will probably miss Saturday south, Sunday north, and next week will end up ejecting in 2 waves...the weak frontrunner will go south and the main one will amp up and cut.  

from your key board to mother natures ears...I think you might have nailed this one.  Unless we can get an aleet to canx the uncanx...then I don't know

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We will probably miss Saturday south, Sunday north, and next week will end up ejecting in 2 waves...the weak frontrunner will go south and the main one will amp up and cut.  

Troll...lol I haven't given up on any of these...just haven't been impressed on the top end if these. Would be okay if we can get 3-5" on Saturday!

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11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Troll...lol I haven't given up on any of these...just haven't been impressed on the top end if these. Would be okay if we can get 3-5" on Saturday!

I was just kidding...kinda.  I don't have any idea how these go, way too many moving parts.  But what I just said is the legit fail scenario!

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking at mslp placement and strength probably similar to Gfs if not further south

Edit..yep meteo has it missing south

If all models had this thing running perfect overhead today I would be far more nervous about a bad outcome than right now. It's narrow so no matter what someone is getting their feelings hurt. Hopefully not mine. I like where my yard is for now. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If all models had this thing running perfect overhead today I would be far more nervous about a bad outcome than right now. It's narrow so no matter what someone is getting their feelings hurt. Hopefully not mine. I like where my yard is for now. 

Oh come now...ya got a foot last month! The ones with the true hurt would be central MD if it misses us...#forumdivider

(And this is why we need next week to work out...lol But since wave 1 and 2 are right in front of us, that's the most tangible thing we got right now!)

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8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Interesting opinion given that the GFS has trended north for the past day and a half.

Of course!  It’s playing catch up to the King. We should always keep that in mind when the Euro is steadily leading the way. Then again, I’ll forget I even posted this worthless response by the time18z rolls in. LOLz. 

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2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Of course!  It’s playing catch up to the King. We should always keep that in mind when the Euro is steadily leading the way. Then again, I’ll forget I even posted this worthless response by the time18z rolls in. LOLz. 

Not sure the Euro is steadily leading the way.  It had a 150 mile jump north from 12Z to 18Z yesterday.  Perhaps it is steadying itself now since the 0Z was in between its previous 2 runs, but it wasn't so steady yesterday at least.

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