aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I mean we are looking at like a 100 mile swath (north-south) of snow. Any deviation north or south will put us outside of the main snow when using the 00z euro as a basis of control. Somebody on our forum will be on the outside looking in...hope it's not us but as far as I can tell I dont have control over it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6z Euro (for the first time in its existence lol) looks to have held. Sorry the zoom out, closer panels won’t load. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Somebody on our forum will be on the outside looking in...hope it's not us but as far as I can tell I dont have control over it Liar. You're just trying to pass blame. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: 6z Euro (for the first time in its existence lol) looks to have held. Sorry the zoom out, closer panels won’t load. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: 6z Euro (for the first time in its existence lol) looks to have held. Sorry the zoom out, closer panels won’t load. A tad South but not much...a good hold I think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: When you are fringed we know the threat can officially be legit. DT said your winter was over anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 A nudge south and a little drier but here is the zoom look. I think most of the Northern half of the forum would like this look 90 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: A nudge south and a little drier but here is the zoom look. I think most of the Northern half of the forum would like this look 90 hrs out. What’s the read on temperatures Saturday? Do we get at or below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: A nudge south and a little drier but here is the zoom look. I think most of the Northern half of the forum would like this look 90 hrs out. Thanks. This is going to be a serious IMBY event if it ends up being a fairly thin stripe of snow on the north edge. Too bad it can't be a more region-wide one, but it's looking like there will be plenty of folks outside looking in, whether high and (relatively) dry or cold and wet. That said, I like the wiggle room for in my 'hood here in central Fairfax County. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: What’s the read on temperatures Saturday? Do we get at or below freezing? This is just before onset. Drops to near or just below throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Snippet from Mount Holly AFD this morning on the first system this weekend. Good stuff as usual- System 1 (Saturday)... A potent trough in eastern Canada and a weak perturbation to its southwest in the central plains is the initial setup for the extended forecast (starting 00z Saturday). The trough is expected to pivot northeastward as a kicker vort max digs southward through Ontario. Meanwhile, the perturbation will reach the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by 12z Saturday, but appears not to be influenced tremendously by the eastern Canada trough. As such, the central U.S. perturbation may tend to shift ever-so-slightly southward as the digging Ontario vort max impinges on it. As the perturbation moves into the Mid-Atlantic during the day, it will tend to get sheared in the confluent flow downstream. However, as the kicker vort max to the north approaches, the perturbation may re-intensify in the lee of the Appalachians, particularly given favorable jet dynamics (left- exit region of a zonally-oriented 250-mb jet streak). The end result appears to be snow to the north of the associated surface low. Of course, it`s all about location (location, location), and the operational model runs did appear to shift somewhat southward overall. QPF is nothing to sneeze at with this system, with up to a half inch possible in a six-hour period. This would be a healthy pumping of snow where it occurs, though also fairly short-lived. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Never heard of a "healthy pumping " of snow. lol May have to start using that one just to get the jokes going in a thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Never heard of a "healthy pumping " of snow. lol May have to start using that one just to get the jokes going in a thread. Lolz I think it was meant to say "dumping". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 52 minutes ago, LP08 said: This is just before onset. Drops to near or just below throughout. My yard is 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Never heard of a "healthy pumping " of snow. lol May have to start using that one just to get the jokes going in a thread. There is nothing wrong with a healthy pumping of anything. Just ask Ji. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 it's literally healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, LP08 said: A nudge south and a little drier but here is the zoom look. I think most of the Northern half of the forum would like this look 90 hrs out. 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: .50" line moved south a touch but my biggest takeaway is the overall system looks fairly juicy still if not more so then 0z back thru Tenn, WV, Kentucky. I'm not opposed to a 50 Mile bumpy bump north fmby I don’t know man, I would love that and I think as LP said in my first quote, I like where we are. Looks juicy back there and the euro has lead the way in that regard. We’re now almost 3 days out, this one isn’t in NC like December. Call me optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6z NAM looking good for Saturday afternoon 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 you couldn't just wait for the 12z to get there??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I like where we sit right now for Saturday given all the obvious concerns about the narrow band. It does look like it's a decent thump of snow, so it's half inch or more per hour rates, which should hopefully be enough to stick to roads even during the day with temps at freezing and road temps warmed from the high temps on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Healthy dumps in the morning. Healthy pumps at night. Where do I get my afternoon delight? The 12z Euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z NAM looking good for Saturday afternoon Big hit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Pump up the snow, pump it up, pump it up a little more, get it snowing on the dance floor... (I'll show myself out.) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z NAM looking good for Saturday afternoon It's a whiteout 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 12z NAM has absolutely 0 for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 12z NAM has absolutely 0 for Saturday. We take! eta: said nobody ever. Not sure what was in my coffee this morning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 12z NAM has absolutely 0 for Saturday. Keep in mind, it's not exactly in the NAM's "good" range, but that's not a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 12z NAM has absolutely 0 for Saturday. its interesting how it shows no precip at the surface. I know its bad at range but there should still be something there. maybe I am expecting too much from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Really very little reflection of a short wave on the NAM initially and with the NAMs slower progression of the confluence to our north the short wave basically gets squashed into non-existence as it moves eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Really very little reflection of a short wave on the NAM initially and with the NAMs slower progression of the confluence to our north the short wave basically gets squashed into non-existence as it moves eastward. I’m not sure how much credence I’d give it. Non-zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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