NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Radar looks very good for tonight I have no clue how this is going to miss but everything misses this winter. take all the clutter out of the radar - and report back please https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 The 0Z NAM suppresses tonights system south of the Raritan River in NJ and Long Island watch that HP ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 hours ago, RU848789 said: At the risk of being accused of beating and stomping on the neck of a dead horse, this is why I hate those "snow only" maps in a mixed precip events and prefer the TT style sleet+snow (all at 10:1, so I know the LE falling in frozen form) maps. On the 12Z CMC, the storm doesn't look like much of a big deal for the 95 corridor, including NYC, but that's wrong. Let's use the 12Z CMC and NYC just to illustrate (same holds true down to at least New Brunswick) what I'm talking about by analyzing what the model says at a deeper level (not a forecast). The sounding for NYC is clearly for snow at 7 am, with the whole column well below 32F down to the surface at 26F The sounding for NYC is then just barely sleet at 1 pm with 700-850 mbar, just barely going above 32F, but with all of 850 mbar to the surface being well below 32F and the surface at 29F. The sounding for NYC at 7 pm is still for sleet, with 700-900 mbar above 32F, but with the column below that well below 32F until just at the surface, where it's 33F - sleet will certainly form falling through ~3000 feet of sub-32F column and shouldn't melt from the last 100 feet or so being above 32F to the surface at 33F, IMO. But the snow only map shows only 1/2" of snow falling in NYC (and Edison/NB) from 7 am to 7 pm, implying a change to sleet soon after 7 am (which is questionable, but irrelevant to my point). But the model then is completely ignoring close to 12 hours of sleet and the precip map shows 0.5" LE falling in NYC between 7 am and 7 pm (and 0.7" in NB), plus it's likely that that sleet signature for NYC lasts another couple of hours to get NYC to maybe 0.7" LE as sleet, like NB. A storm with 1-2" of snow on the map, like the 12Z CMC, looks benign. A storm with 1-2" of snow, followed by 0.7" of LE as sleet, which is about 2" of sleet (at a 3:1 ratio) is a far different and much more impactful storm, as that's a total of 0.8-0.9" LE in frozen form (8-9" worth of snow, even if it will only be 3-4" on the ground) and that mass is what's critical for shoveling, plowing, driving, etc. Not as pretty as snow and much less of a visibility issue, but very impactful. Because of this, I think the NWS might issue watches, which are usually reserved for 6" of pure snow, for the 95 corridor and NW of there, since the frozen equivalent will likely be 6" of "snow equivalent" or more. The risk of 0.1" or more of freezing rain might also tip the scales towards watches (and warnings tomorrow morning if the models don't change much). We'll see soon. One more thing. If we get 0.6-1.0" of LE in frozen form for the Trenton-NYC corridor, as almost every model is showing, that amount of frozen precip will likely absorb much of the subsequent 0.5-1.0" of rain that likely falls after the changeover to all rain (especially if it's on the 0.5" side of things as rain), creating a slushy mess holding about 1.5-2.0" of LE - a bit of melting will obviously occur with temps in the mid/upper 30s and rain, but I'd guess <25% melting. However, if the CMC is right and we hit 50F on Wednesday, lots of melting will occur (other models top out at 35-40F, so big variance there in melting rate/amount). Using model soundings to infer p-type? Sacrilege! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The setup was nowhere near as good. High wasn’t a one piece anchored high. It was a sprawled our high with the neck positioned too far west across Quebec so you just didn’t get the proper CAD signature. Also the air mass wasn’t as good in place ahead of the storm Exactly I'm a realist and usually less toward cautiously pessimitic but even I can see this setup is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 0Z NAM suppresses tonights system south of the Raritan River in NJ and Long Island watch that HP ! It's also a quicker change to sleet on Tuesday. Looks like about 3 hours of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 NAM is an all out sleet storm on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It's also a quicker change to sleet on Tuesday. Looks like about 3 hours of snow agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 About .75 QPF of sleet/snow before changeover. Commute will be hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agreed We needed snow to arrive after midnight, now it's barely snowing by 7am in central nj. We'll change to sleet by 9 but stay frozen most of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 If the Nam is right this will be another devestating sleet/zr event NW of the city, might be as bad or worse than MLK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: If the Nam is right this will be another devestating sleet/zr event NW of the city, might be as bad or worse than MLK instead of a heavy rain change over seems there is a dry slot after a little rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: instead of a heavy rain change over seems there is a dry slot after a little rain That High and CAD means business, mid levels warm to the Canadian border but still ice in Northern NJ. And yes I notice the nam has much less rain than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 and the rumor is that the NAM does well with CAD ,,,,,,,OH MY TIME WILL TELL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 WAA is always undermodeled and CAD always wins.... surface temps usually verify lower than modeled as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Looking like the kind of sleet events we get in years where snow is scarce, I'm thinking 2007. This is still inclement weather folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 NAM would be a Winter Storm Watch scenario for the metro area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: and the rumor is that the NAM does well with CAD ,,,,,,,OH MY TIME WILL TELL if it is sleet this is going to be no big deal on the roads in the immediate NYC Metro because temps are going to be in the lower 30's and they will be putting tons of salt down and most of it will fall during daylight with more traffic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: WAA is always undermodeled and CAD always wins.... surface temps usually verify lower than modeled as well Yea I'd expect the city to start the storm in the 20s. This is nothing like the MLK event, it's way closer to the November storm except for the annoying mid level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Thats if the nam is right. I don't trust it. When was the last time it sleeted that long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: if it is sleet this is going to be no big deal on the roads in the immediate NYC Metro because temps are going to be in the lower 30's and they will be putting tons of salt down and most of it will all during daylight with more traffic Maybe in Manhattan but the sleet will accumulate all over the outer boroughs as long as it's at or below freezing, even if it's slightly above freezing it may accumulate if theres already sleet/snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thats if the nam is right. I don't trust it. When was the last time it sleeted that long? It can be right... all would much rather that then hours of frz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: NAM would be a Winter Storm Watch scenario for the metro area Upton was too conservative in November and too bullish for MLK, now they seem back to being conservative, I would expect the WSW to be extended to at least Putnam, Rockland Western Bergen, and Northern Westchester with WWA for the rest of the tri state area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: if it is sleet this is going to be no big deal on the roads in the immediate NYC Metro because temps are going to be in the lower 30's and they will be putting tons of salt down and most of it will fall during daylight with more traffic I wouldn't chance it. But that's me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thats if the nam is right. I don't trust it. When was the last time it sleeted that long? March 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: March 2017 And vday 07 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: I wouldn't chance it. But that's me. our side roads in Colonia may be icy but New Dover Rd and inman ave will have a ton of salt and tomorrow those stupid loud trucks will be running around here all day spreading that chemical on the roads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: our side roads in Colonia may be icy but New Dover Rd and inman ave will have a ton of salt and tomorrow those stupid loud trucks will be running around here all day spreading that chemical on the roads I would still expect some cancelations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: March 2017 Yea these storms tend to happen more in Feburary and March than earlier in the winter, I guess due to the ocean being colder? Even last year I remember there was a storm I think in Mid Feburary where there was a decent amount of ZR in parts of the city before the change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I would still expect some cancelations. all depends which school district - plus starting time of precip and what type and how much is still in question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: all depends which school district Generally Edison, Metuchen, Woodbridge and S plainfield and Rahway and Carteret go together. Old Bridge and Sayreville sometimes have it a little different. Elizabeth never used to cancel, these days they do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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