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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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21 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Pinging has stopped, just got above freezing now.

 

Croton, Brewster have another 30 mins to an hr of ZR, a bit more north of there.  Should flip about now in Mt. Kisco, Pound Ridge, etc.  Storm behaved today, glad for no major surprises.

I'm 350 feet above Croton Falls and it has been raining for an hour now. Spots that were shoveled/blown are down to iced over and wet pavement now everything else has a nice crust on it.

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37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

LMAO ISP still leads the pack in shit winters gotta love the 2010s

I'm in Levittown, we have had about 7 inches for the year. About an 11/2 today.

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This event ended up delivering a 2.1" total over here. I found the few hours of a mostly snow grain with a little sleet mixture pretty cool looking. It seemed like a fog out there. This brings my 2018-19 season snow total to 5.6" 

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Woke up this morning and to my surprise my 1.5 inches (eyeballing it) of snow/sleet has condensed a bit, but at least the ground is still white here in Melville LI. I would have thought the overnight rain would wash everything bare, but that sleet is amazingly resilient.  

Question for you guys..

Have we ever been able to overcome a bad MJO index with a major snowstorm? I remember a few years ago (was it 2012?) were we had a terrible MJO which ruined the entire winter with a SE Ridge that we couldn’t kill.

I’m not technical by any means and that’s why I predominanty lurk on here, but it seems that the state of the MJO trumps all other indices.

it also seems rather difficult to predict the state of the MJO more than a few days out. 

Curious to know what is the largest snowfall ever with a MJO of 5 for NYC/LI?   I believe 5 is the most hostile stage for snow, right?

-Jason

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Taking a flamethrower to my driveway this morning. 

 

Guess i shouldnt have relied on the “itll switch to rain and wash the little bit of snow away” crowd and cleared the driveway when i had the chance. 

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Just now, BxEngine said:

Taking a flamethrower to my driveway this morning. 

 

Guess i shouldnt have relied on the “itll switch to rain and wash the little bit of snow away” crowd and cleared the driveway when i had the chance. 

No that's the theory my wife chose to go with and now we have 3" of ice too. This sux because I'm not allowed to do anything to help make it better, guess we're just going to crawl up and down for a few days until it warms up on Friday.

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12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Taking a flamethrower to my driveway this morning. 

 

Guess i shouldnt have relied on the “itll switch to rain and wash the little bit of snow away” crowd and cleared the driveway when i had the chance. 

This stuff works great  :thumbsup:

th.jpg

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22 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Taking a flamethrower to my driveway this morning. 

 

Guess i shouldnt have relied on the “itll switch to rain and wash the little bit of snow away” crowd and cleared the driveway when i had the chance. 

I knew that would happen here so made it a mission to clear everything last night.

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38 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Taking a flamethrower to my driveway this morning. 

 

Guess i shouldnt have relied on the “itll switch to rain and wash the little bit of snow away” crowd and cleared the driveway when i had the chance. 

It’ll be 44 later today and warm all week

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1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Taking a flamethrower to my driveway this morning. 

 

Guess i shouldnt have relied on the “itll switch to rain and wash the little bit of snow away” crowd and cleared the driveway when i had the chance. 

sleet lasts longer than snow because of its higher density so it might have protected you against melting.

 

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

@EasternLIa lot more snow out in riverhead than I expected. Looks like at least 2+ of glacier. We had a bit less further west. Crazy storm. 

It was a cool little event. I was anticipating like an inch before a washout. It ended up being a mostly snow to sleet situation. The sleet really adds some staying power. I was surprised to see how much was still on the ground this morning.

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21 hours ago, EasternLI said:

It was a cool little event. I was anticipating like an inch before a washout. It ended up being a mostly snow to sleet situation. The sleet really adds some staying power. I was surprised to see how much was still on the ground this morning.

Yea this storm was definitely a win in terms of leaving frozen on the ground even after the rain. Despite not being a total whiff on the snow like the NAM showed, overall the NAM nailed it best with it being a predominantly sleet/zr event with some rain at the end, by far the best event since the November storm. 

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On 2/14/2019 at 11:25 AM, HVSnowLover said:

Yea this storm was definitely a win in terms of leaving frozen on the ground even after the rain. Despite not being a total whiff on the snow like the NAM showed, overall the NAM nailed it best with it being a predominantly sleet/zr event with some rain at the end, by far the best event since the November storm. 

Yep, the breakdown of snow vs. sleet may have been off on some models, but the models did very well with the predictions of how much LE would fall in frozen form (sleet/snow, not ZR), with most of the NYC metro getting 0.4-0.6" of frozen LE (like 4-6" worth of snow; we had about 0.43" of frozen LE here) followed by a bit of ZR and then rain, but not as much rain as it could've been. As expected, most of the rain was simply absorbed into the snow/sleet pack, making slush, as opposed to melting much, especially with temps in the mid 30s after the storm.  We had frozen precip on the ground until this afternoon here.  For things like impact (with regard to snow removal/driving) and melting, frozen mass is far more important than depth.

I know some think I'm being ridiculous, but I truly believe we ought to convert sleet to "snow equivalent" (at 10:1 ratio) to truly communicate its impact to the public - 1" of sleet sounds like nothing, but it's really 3.3" of "snow equivalent" which is far more impactful.  And the 3:1, sleet:liquid ratio I've been using for awhile (3.3" of 10:1 snow in 1" of sleet if that is correct) has been based on what I've measured a few times, myself. 

However, I don't check this in every storm and I was just reading a report suggesting the ratio varies between 2:1 and 3:1, so if one took the midpoint of that range, one would get 2.5" of sleet per 1" of liquid, so that 1" of sleet would be equivalent to 4" of 10:1 snow and on the high end, 1" of sleet would be equivalent to 5" of 10:1 snow. 

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/nomogram/ip.and.freezingrain.2.html

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I think that it could be debated which is higher impact on travel. Sleet mixed with (even just a little bit of) snow, which is the most common way for it to fall up here, is a disaster to drive in. Just snow is difficult but usually manageable if you have decent tires on the car.

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