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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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33 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

0Z RGEM a pretty big improvement over previous runs if you want front end snow

Yep, it shows a bit of snow on the front end and shows the first 0.7-0.8" of LE is snow and sleet (mostly sleet) for at least Edison and NYC, the two places/soundings I checked, before turning to plain rain and getting another 0.7" or so of rain after that.  

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z.  Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less.  I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up.  We'll see. 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_16.png

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Well, the TT maps for the 0Z NAM might say mostly sleet, but NCEP says about 0.43" LE as sleet, 0.30" as ZR and 0.21" as rain (and almost no snow) - that's a lot of ZR.  This is for Newark.  I can't even begin to ponder how to figure out which is more likely to be right if either, but thought it was at least worth sharing.  

prec.png

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem shows 2-4 inches for NYC

Snows from 6am -1pm

Good improvement

My final call on FB for my friends and such was 2-5" for Manhattan. Not saying that verifies but it was funny to see the bridge jumpers today. Euro never wavered, no reason to call it. 

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13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

I'll say. I do like sleet...not as much as snow though.  Maybe it's my Catholic upbringing, but I like the sting a bit.

I’ll put up the snorkel before heading out. I went to catholic school in the 70s so yeah I’ve been slapped around and hit with yardsticks too

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Looks like it’s coming in a bit ahead of schedule. Haven’t had time to analyze this storm much due to my Father having a very serious complication from surgery, so sorry for my lack of input with this one.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like it’s coming in a bit ahead of schedule. Haven’t had time to analyze this storm much due to my Father having a very serious complication from surgery, so sorry for my lack of input with this one.

Priorities ,,,,,I hope the old man is ok

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z.  Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less.  I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up.  We'll see. 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_16.png

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

How can you take this map seriously, it has 0.1 inches of snow. I’m pretty sure we’ll get more of the snow 

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Just now, New York Blizzard said:

How can you take this map seriously, it has 0.1 inches of snow. I’m pretty sure we’ll get more of the snow 

Yea I can pretty much guarantee that map won't verify. It would be quite a coup. 

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4 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

How can you take this map seriously, it has 0.1 inches of snow. I’m pretty sure we’ll get more of the snow 

My only point of the post, which I thought I made, was that 0Z had much more frozen precip than 18Z, which was a huge departure for the NAM vs. every other run the past few days, which I have been commenting on.  I would also be very surprised to not get at least 1-2" of snow in the NYC area and where I live near Edison.  I have zero idea when the transition will occur as so many factors go into that and I don't think it can be well predicted everywhere - that's a nowcasting thing, IMO.  

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3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I'm not sure what the current radar was " supposed " to look like but I think it looks real good right now

Precip is very close

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2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I'm not sure what the current radar was " supposed " to look like but I think it looks real good right now

Here’s the HRR from 21Z today valid at 05Z tonight.  It definitely showed this sort of look but then it was forecast to make no advancement in the next few hours.  We have to wait another 3-4 hours to see how it progresses 

 

1F3A9C6C-3FB3-4F10-8E5D-934A9A8EE1D8.png

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Minor point, but just noticed a discontinuity in Mt. Holly's warnings/advisories.  The warnings for Upper Montco/Bucks, Hunterdon/Somerset are for 4-6", while the advisories for the next tier of counties SE of there, i.e,. Lower Montco/Bucks, Mercer, and Middlesex (and Monmouth) are for 1-3".  You can't go from 3" to 4" by crossing an imaginary county line.  The advisories earlier today were for 2-4" for those counties, which makes sense, as the highest amount in those counties should equal or overlap with the lowest amount in the next tier, but they dropped them to 1-3" this evening.  Not expecting perfection, but that's kind of bad.   

 

https://www.weather.gov/PHI

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Big dew point drop from north to south across Long Island over the past 2 hours coincident with the wind picking up from the northeast.  When I saw the Stony Brook ob at midnight I thought it was an error.  

It's almost got a backdoor cold front vibe to it:

11PM:

Farmingdale    FAIR      32  20  61 E10       30.38R WCI  24
MacArthur/ISP  CLOUDY    32  21  64 CALM      30.38R
Stony Brook      N/A     32  25  74 NE1         N/A

12AM:

Farmingdale    FAIR      32  22  66 NE10      30.40R WCI  24
MacArthur/ISP  CLOUDY    32  22  66 N8        30.40R WCI  25
Stony Brook      N/A     32  12  43 NE5         N/A  WCI  27

1AM:

Farmingdale    CLOUDY    32  10  40 NE16G23   30.39F WCI  21
MacArthur/ISP  FAIR      31  10  41 NE13      30.39F WCI  21
Stony Brook      N/A     32  10  40 NE6         N/A  WCI  26

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NWS updates: NYC office delays precip onset to ~7 am and Philly office thinks snow be be a little overdone for their far NW...

National Weather Service New York NY
101 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With high pressure nosed into the region from the north, and
with latest guidance holding off precipitation until closer to
12Z, delayed onset of precipitation a few hours.

The high pressure area within Southeast Canada builds in
through much of tonight as diagnosed by positive pressure
tendencies within the local region. Towards daybreak Tuesday,
pressure tendencies will become neutral to negative, as high
pressure moves farther away farther northward within Southeast
Canada. This will be accompanied by steady rising heights aloft.
There will be large amount of dry air to overcome with initial
precipitation and the aforementioned factors convey more
subsidence that will limit growth of any precipitation.
Expecting dry conditions to prevail through much of tonight with
increasing clouds. Chances for snow increase late from SW to
NE, not becoming likely until after 5AM Tuesday. Lows tonight
were a blend of raw consensus and GMOS, ranging from the low to
upper 20s.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1258 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250am Update: Regional radar imagery indicates a light band of
precip draped across eastern PA and central/southern NJ. Most
of this precip is falling in the form of light snow, with some
mixed precip near the southern most fringe of the band. Updated
the forecast to reflect the latest trends in radar, surface
observations, and hi-res guidance through the overnight hours.
This initial round of precip appears to be lighter and much less
than coverage, especially across Delmarva and far southern NJ,
than was originally forecast. The latest HRRR runs appear to be
capturing its evolution well whereas the 00z NAM and NAM Nest
runs initialized too warm and dry. Currently expecting this band
to persist with occasional showers of rain or mixed precip
across our southern areas for the next few hours. Better forcing
and isentropic lifting will arrive closer to daybreak yielding
more widespread and heavier precip generally from SW to NE. With
that said, looks like our storm total snow forecast my be a bit
too high for our far northwestern areas of the southern Poconos
and NW NJ. Will reassess and make adjustments as needed with
the next forecast update.

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24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS updates: NYC office delays precip onset to ~7 am and Philly office thinks snow be be a little overdone for their far NW...

National Weather Service New York NY
101 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With high pressure nosed into the region from the north, and
with latest guidance holding off precipitation until closer to
12Z, delayed onset of precipitation a few hours.

The high pressure area within Southeast Canada builds in
through much of tonight as diagnosed by positive pressure
tendencies within the local region. Towards daybreak Tuesday,
pressure tendencies will become neutral to negative, as high
pressure moves farther away farther northward within Southeast
Canada. This will be accompanied by steady rising heights aloft.
There will be large amount of dry air to overcome with initial
precipitation and the aforementioned factors convey more
subsidence that will limit growth of any precipitation.
Expecting dry conditions to prevail through much of tonight with
increasing clouds. Chances for snow increase late from SW to
NE, not becoming likely until after 5AM Tuesday. Lows tonight
were a blend of raw consensus and GMOS, ranging from the low to
upper 20s.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1258 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250am Update: Regional radar imagery indicates a light band of
precip draped across eastern PA and central/southern NJ. Most
of this precip is falling in the form of light snow, with some
mixed precip near the southern most fringe of the band. Updated
the forecast to reflect the latest trends in radar, surface
observations, and hi-res guidance through the overnight hours.
This initial round of precip appears to be lighter and much less
than coverage, especially across Delmarva and far southern NJ,
than was originally forecast. The latest HRRR runs appear to be
capturing its evolution well whereas the 00z NAM and NAM Nest
runs initialized too warm and dry. Currently expecting this band
to persist with occasional showers of rain or mixed precip
across our southern areas for the next few hours. Better forcing
and isentropic lifting will arrive closer to daybreak yielding
more widespread and heavier precip generally from SW to NE. With
that said, looks like our storm total snow forecast my be a bit
too high for our far northwestern areas of the southern Poconos
and NW NJ. Will reassess and make adjustments as needed with
the next forecast update.

Surely was over done I sit at .25 so far from round 2. was forecast 1-3 overnight. just some pixie dust falling at the moment in Berks county Pa

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The one thing I have noticed is a pretty substantial drop in my DP/RH over the last hour from 22/52 down to 12/39

Current temp 32

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