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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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10 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Big fan of sleet.  Bigtime fan.

Same here, 07 was awesome! Complete disaster for road crews, loved it.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The RUC soundings which I’ve tended to find very accurate the last couple of years show NYC/LGA snow til 1730Z

How long does the sleet hang on for?

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

How long does the sleet hang on for?

Through 00Z it’s still all frozen.   It appears from 22-23Z it’s FZRA or FZRAPL 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Through 00Z it’s still all frozen.   It appears from 22-23Z it’s FZRA or FZRAPL 

Thanks! If you don't mind, total frozen QPF?

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0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z.  Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less.  I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up.  We'll see. 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_16.png

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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Just now, RU848789 said:

0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z.  Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less.  I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up.  We'll see. 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_16.png

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Yea I doubt theres no snow all the way up to the Mid HV with this. NAM def has an interesting solution all around with the no snow and extended sleet.  

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z.  Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less.  I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up.  We'll see. 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_16.png

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Have a real hard time believing this snow map. 1 inch by me in mid hudson valley and only 4 in Albany. Seriously doubt it, and nam is only one that shows this. 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I doubt theres no snow all the way up to the Mid HV with this. NAM def has an interesting solution all around with the no snow and extended sleet.  

Yeah, I don't care much about the snow depiction, which could be wrong - I was concerned that the NAM went from 90% LE as sleet to 50% LE as sleet with the rest rain from 12Z to 18Z, while the RGEM, GFS and others were also showing more rain and less frozen, so I was ecstatic to see the 0Z NAM go back to 80-90% of the total precip as frozen.  Was just looking at the direction the NAM went and I like it.  

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Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Have a real hard time believing this snow map. 1 inch by me in mid hudson valley and only 4 in Albany. Seriously doubt it, and nam is only one that shows this. 

Yeah, and ironically has the most frozen precip down here at the same time. Its almost an impossibility that western MA gets no snow.

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Yeah, I don't care much about the snow depiction, which could be wrong - I was concerned that the NAM went from 90% LE as sleet to 50% LE as sleet with the rest rain from 12Z to 18Z, while the RGEM, GFS and others were also showing more rain and less frozen, so I was ecstatic to see the 0Z NAM go back to 80-90% of the total precip as frozen.  Was just looking at the direction the NAM went and I like it.  

Yeah, I just think nam is wrong on this one with such a quick changeover to sleet. I will give it it's due if it turns out to be correct but it's more likely it's not. 

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Radar looks good. Precip starting early ?

 Not sure yet.  HRRR showed it might headfake for a time from 04-07Z then dry out and stop advancing. Won’t know for a few hours

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15 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Yeah, I don't care much about the snow depiction, which could be wrong - I was concerned that the NAM went from 90% LE as sleet to 50% LE as sleet with the rest rain from 12Z to 18Z, while the RGEM, GFS and others were also showing more rain and less frozen, so I was ecstatic to see the 0Z NAM go back to 80-90% of the total precip as frozen.  Was just looking at the direction the NAM went and I like it.  

0Z RGEM a pretty big improvement over previous runs if you want front end snow

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20 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Dews are slowly rising 

Might be a good sign. We shall see.

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 Not sure yet.  HRRR showed it might headfake for a time from 04-07Z then dry out and stop advancing. Won’t know for a few hours

Dew points are on the rise right now

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16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 Not sure yet.  HRRR showed it might headfake for a time from 04-07Z then dry out and stop advancing. Won’t know for a few hours

It almost certainly looks like a headfake to me. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I can smell the virga from here. 

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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

It almost certainly looks like a headfake to me. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I can smell the virga from here. 

Not a ton of dry air between 700-900.  I’ve seen much worse.  We will saturate fairly quickly once precip gets overhead 

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