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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i don't mind that. What I mind is when I am looking outside and it is not doing what people here are telling me it's doing. 

So if you know what's going to happen you don't need to pay attention to what is said on here. I mean clearly it's not just this forum wishcasting given what upton is forecasting. If it busts it busts but there reasons people are expecting things to happen the way they say.

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Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's weather, shit happens. Thermal profiles have been tough this winter. Again, it depends on where you live. 

I was thinking of a couple storms last year, both the Jan one and one of the March ones where it clearly wasn't gonna be as big as advertised in IMBY but people kept telling me that it's coming or I'm not measuring right. I know the difference between 3-4 inches and 12 inches.

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's weather, shit happens. Thermal profiles have been tough this winter. Again, it depends on where you live. 

It's actually an easier forecast up where you live, you know it's going to be snow and than ice, the big question is how much snow before the ice.  I find the toughest area is to forecast is always the immediate metro area because we're always on the fence in terms of the boundary layer, difference between 32 and 29 so huge in this kind of event.    

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

So if you know what's going to happen you don't need to pay attention to what is said on here. I mean clearly it's not just this forum wishcasting given what upton is forecasting. If it busts it busts but there reasons people are expecting things to happen the way they say.

Where did I say that? I'm talking about previous nowcasting events, where it was not doing what people were telling me it's doing. I can see for myself what it is doing outside. I made no mention of a forecast of my own. I don't do those. I leave it to the experts. And even they don't get it right sometimes.

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Where did I say that? I'm talking about previous nowcasting events, where it was not doing what people were telling me it's doing. I can see for myself what it is doing outside.

Oh true yea usually once the storm begins you can kind of tell what's going to happen especially in this kind of event as I just said if it's 28-29 when the precip arrives the frozen element will be way more impactful than if precip comes in and it's 32, also we'll probably be able to tell the intensity of the precip at onset which will be the other big factor. 

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Inland areas are in for a huge mess tomorrow. HRRR has them mainly in the 20s with hours of sleet/ZR. 

The current dews in the teens are a red flag that the surface will stay colder and longer than forecast. 

Very little snow with this now. 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Oh true yea usually once the storm begins you can kind of tell what's going to happen especially in this kind of event as I just said if it's 28-29 when the precip arrives the frozen element will be way more impactful than if precip comes in and it's 32, also we'll probably be able to tell the intensity of the precip at onset which will be the other big factor. 

That's kinda what I was getting at....if people want to make predictions that's fine. But when the storm is under way and I'm in subsidence or it is raining already I don't need people to tell me I'm wrong, or that I shouldn't believe " my lyin eyes."

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Inland areas are in for a huge mess tomorrow. HRRR has them mainly in the 20s with hours of sleet/ZR. 

The current dews in the teens are a red flag that the surface will stay colder and longer than forecast. 

Very little snow with this now. 

I don't think the snow is the worry. It's the sleet. Surprised Rutgers New brunswick went with the delay; Newark campus closed, but then, different forecast areas at NWS.

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11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I know everyone on here loves the snow.  I used to love snow as much as anyone.   Now things are different.  Doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy this site, the people who post or their forecasts. 

Im definitely anti snow now.  No argument from me.  And I do enjoy a good snowstorm, prefer weekend storms though.   I don’t think this storm is going to deliver though.  I’ve lived through countless storms like these on Long Island.  Rain seems to win these scenarios

It was never supposed to deliver on the Island. What is very possible is that you pick up and inch or 2, depending on south or north shore, then turning to sleet and then rain. Because it may be washed away does not mean it will not snow. That is not wishcasting. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Inland areas are in for a huge mess tomorrow. HRRR has them mainly in the 20s with hours of sleet/ZR. 

The current dews in the teens are a red flag that the surface will stay colder and longer than forecast. 

Very little snow with this now. 

Currently 27/18 here with party cloudy skies. Forecast low is 23 here. We could hit that pretty soon. It could  be tough to scour out the CAD tomorrow and make for a icy day up this way.

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2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Currently 27/18 here with party cloudy skies. Forecast low is 23 here. We could hit that pretty soon. It could  be tough to scour out the CAD tomorrow and make for a icy day up this way.

Yea I don't think it's even a conversation up there, significant icing almost a definite at this point.  

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Inland areas are in for a huge mess tomorrow. HRRR has them mainly in the 20s with hours of sleet/ZR. 

The current dews in the teens are a red flag that the surface will stay colder and longer than forecast. 

Very little snow with this now. 

 Again, it depends where you live and everybody sees front end snow. HRRR has me snowing for 6-8 hours before changing to sleet, and my forecast is for 6-8 inches of snow/s;eet. 

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Inland areas are in for a huge mess tomorrow. HRRR has them mainly in the 20s with hours of sleet/ZR. 

The current dews in the teens are a red flag that the surface will stay colder and longer than forecast. 

Very little snow with this now. 

 

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The synoptic picture concerning the upcoming storm remains little changed. The guidance has now moved into better consensus.

Albany: 6"-10"
Allentown: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 3"-6"
Bridgeport: 2"-4"
Burlington: 8"-14"
Elmira: 3"-6"
Harrisburg: 3"-6"
Hartford: 3"-6"
Islip: 1"-3"
New City: 3"-6"
New York City: 2"-4"
Newark: 2"-4"
Philadelphia: 1"-3"
Providence: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"
Scranton: 3"-6"
White Plains: 3"-6"

 Areas to the north and west of I-95 could face a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain.

Snowfall amounts for the clipper were largely in line with expectations. Last evening, it was noted that cities such as Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Wilmington, DE are in line to pick up 1"-3" from tonight's clipper system. Snowfall amounts were as follows: Harrisburg: 2.5", Philadelphia: 2.3", and Wilmington, DE: 3.2".

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NAM has 10 hours of frozen precip for my area 9 hours of sleet/ZR and I'm right at the border of the city. This isn't going to be a non event for the metro area. 

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11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It was never supposed to deliver on the Island. What is very possible is that you pick up and inch or 2, depending on south or north shore, then turning to sleet and then rain. Because it may be washed away does not mean it will not snow. That is not wishcasting. 

Oh I agree with the premise.  I am saying I have my doubts about even the inch or 2.  

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2 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Now all of LI in WWA :huh:

Read their afd

They are expecting heavy snow rates

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Sleet isn't considered icing. It's considered snow for the books. No one around here will get significant icing.... significant sleet looks likely for a lot of us.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Sleet isn't considered icing. It's considered snow for the books. No one around here will get significant icing.... significant sleet looks likely for a lot of us.

We went through this last time when people made these statements. CT and parts of the Hudson Valley had trees and power lines down due to ice. 

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5 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

We went through this last time when people made these statements. CT and parts of the Hudson Valley had trees and power lines down due to ice. 

Yup. My forecast is for .15 -.20 of ice on top of the snow and sleet. 

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10 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

We went through this last time when people made these statements. CT and parts of the Hudson Valley had trees and power lines down due to ice. 

That would be the case if there was significant ZR on deck, it's a sleetfest for them.

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