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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Wow really?

1-3 to play it safe 

I wouldn't be shocked if we see more than 2 inches . Have to see how the CAD plays out.

Yes we do close for sleet if it’s steady and falling at opening time this is the suburbs and kids don’t walk much.

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37 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Ended up with a pretty 1/4" coating on everything.  Take anything I can get.  

Yup took a nice walk in the park just to get into the mood this morning. Was refreshing. Regular hikers were fine haven’t needed the ice boots yet.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

You never know. The models can also be underdoing the low level cold like we saw with past storms. Like Neg NAO stated , this will be a nowcasting event.

Yea at this point it's basically just wait and see but the way this winter is going can't be optimistic plus whatever frozen falls likely washed away, I don't think I've ever seen a winter with as much rain as this one, we haven't had one single event all year that's been mostly or all frozen  

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Not trying to be negative but being real, theres no model support for this right now.

Doesn't the EURO still show 4 to 6?

GFS is still 2 to 5

Agreed all other models no.

However that is snow sleet mix. NAM is 6 inches with sleet 1 without. Total accumulation would probably be 2 to 2.5 accumulation of both.

Personally I am expecting 1 to 3 and 6 to 7 hours of sleet and freezing rain.

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not trying to be negative but being real, theres no model support for this right now.

Yes there is

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Doesn't the EURO still show 4 to 6?

GFS is still 2 to 5

Agreed all other models no.

However that is snow sleet mix. NAM is 6 inches with sleet 1 without. Total accumulation would probably be 2 to 2.5 accumulation of both.

Personally I am expecting 1 to 3 and 6 to 7 hours of sleet and freezing rain.

Yea I think for Northern NYC and the immediate burbs this sounds about right, maybe slightly less than 6 to 7 hours.

Also didn't realize Euro still showing 4-6, is that including with ratios? Are we sure it's not including sleet? 

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Low levels hold on to colder longer than expected, mid-levels torch quick.  Probably thump 1-3/2-4 and then pile on the sleet.  In terms of pure snow, NWS is too high I think.  Add some sleet in and I can see where they're trying to go with it.  CYA in case mid-levels dont torch as quick.

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1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

Low levels hold on to colder longer than expected, mid-levels torch quick.  Probably thump 1-3/2-4 and then pile on the sleet.  In terms of pure snow, NWS is too high I think.  Add some sleet in and I can see where they're trying to go with it.

In the March 2017 event they stated something to the effect that they don’t like to downplay amounts if sleet is involved as it is just as bad for driving 

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25 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

In the March 2017 event they stated something to the effect that they don’t like to downplay amounts if sleet is involved as it is just as bad for driving 

NAM is quite the sleetstorm tomorrow for the metro, has about 6 hours of sleet the equivalent of almost .75 qpf

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Something to take into account in the city itself we do not have super cold ground temps. So we are really going to need it to come down heavy in order to accumulate on main roads. Sleet will accumulate just about anywhere though.

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Something to take into account in the city itself we do not have super cold ground temps. So we are really going to need it to come down heavy in order to accumulate on main roads. Sleet will accumulate just about anywhere though.

Yep sleet will accumulate better than snow in this setup, it will also be harder to wash away

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Im asking this question here and elsewhere = what is causing the mid levels to torch ? I know I can look at surface temps and radar tomorrow but Is there anything that we should look for now or hope for tomorrow to see if the mid levels are indeed torching or not ?

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3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Im asking this question here and elsewhere = what is causing the mid levels to torch ? I know I can look at surface temps and radar tomorrow but Is there anything that we should look for now or hope for tomorrow to see if the mid levels are indeed torching or not ?

Out the window? A Radar? There are also maps showing mid level temps although I don't know exactly how to get access to them

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Just now, CarLover014 said:

2.5" as of 9:30 am. All schools have a delayed start, with a few cancellations a little farther south of here. Still snowing. 32/28

Nice. 2.5 is four times what NYC has seen in the past 3 months.

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Nice. 2.5 is four times what NYC has seen in the past 3 months.

That's currently the biggest snowfall of the season for me. Very curious what places between Cape May and Atlantic City have. 

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Out the window? A Radar? There are also maps showing mid level temps although I don't know exactly how to get access to them

Just watch the correlation coefficient on radar scope.  Sleet ain't hard to see.

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9 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Im asking this question here and elsewhere = what is causing the mid levels to torch ? I know I can look at surface temps and radar tomorrow but Is there anything that we should look for now or hope for tomorrow to see if the mid levels are indeed torching or not ?

Look at correlation coefficient on radar. Tells you real time where the sleet line is, which is an indication of where the upper levels are going above freezing.  I use my RadarScope app but the below link works as well:

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-0-6

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5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Just watch the correlation coefficient on radar scope.  Sleet ain't hard to see.

Nittany this I understand but right now many people are saying / posting that the mid levels are going to torch so my question is how does anyone know that right now as ( and Im sure others don't understand it either )  some of us / me still don't understand what causes that ?

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6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Nittany this I understand but right now many people are saying / posting that the mid levels are going to torch so my question is how does anyone know that right now as ( and Im sure others don't understand it either )  some of us / me still don't understand what causes that ?

Track of the 700mb low leads to a screaming southwest wind between 850 and 700mb.  Unlike the surface, where HP is dominant and allowing for cold air to wedge, the mid-levels aren't going to have as much resistance to WAA.  Winds will turn quicker in the mid-levels, and as a result, we get a lot of sleet.  

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1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

Track of the 700mb low leads to a screaming southwest wind between 850 and 700mb.  Unlike the surface, where HP is dominant and allowing for cold air to wedge, the mid-levels aren't going to have as much resistance to WAA.  Winds will turn quicker in the mid-levels, and as a result, we get a lot of sleet.  

Thanks a lot Nittany I appreciate it,,,,,,is that seen only the soundings or is there somewhere else I could see it ? Possible for you or someone else to post a graphic = picture is worth a thousand words --> Thanks again Nittany

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thanks a lot Nittany I appreciate it,,,,,,is that seen only the soundings or is there somewhere else I could see it ? Possible for you or someone else to post a graphic = picture is worth a thousand words --> Thanks again Nittany

Most model pages don't have an 800mb chart.  So, take a look in the soundings.

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NEXT SILLY QUESTION BUT-----> and it has probably been asked before even by me but where can someone look at the soundings ? are they on TT or another site I can access or ONLY pay sights ?

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5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

NEXT SILLY QUESTION BUT-----> and it has probably been asked before even by me but where can someone look at the soundings ? are they on TT or another site I can access or ONLY pay sights ?

pivotalweather. great site. just click on the map location for soundings.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

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5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

NEXT SILLY QUESTION BUT-----> and it has probably been asked before even by me but where can someone look at the soundings ? are they on TT or another site I can access or ONLY pay sights ?

On Tropical Tidbits, you can get soundings on some models, GFS, NAM, HRRR, etc. You can get soundings on Pivotal and College of DuPage's weather page

 

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