Ericjcrash Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Sleet is much easier to deal with at 30 degrees then it is at 17 degrees...…. I think the fact temps are warmer enhances the effect of the sleet's density vs. Snow. Snow during the day in mid Feb at 30° will melt way faster then sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 GFS Kuchera with a gully washer in the mix @ 10pm Tues Night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Sleet is much easier to deal with at 30 degrees then it is at 17 degrees...…. This makes no sense - why would it matter? Below 32F is below 32F and melting won't occur strictly based on temp at either temp. Now, if you're throwing in the factors of treated roads and indirect sunlight during the day, yes, of course sleet will melt faster at 30F than 17F - but still much more slowly than snow at any temp, which was the original point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: This makes no sense - why would it matter? Below 32F is below 32F and melting won't occur strictly based on temp at either temp. Now, if you're throwing in the factors of treated roads and indirect sunlight during the day, yes, of course sleet will melt faster at 30F than 17F - but still much more slowly than snow at any temp, which was the original point. That's why I said "deal with" = treated roads and indirect sunlight factor ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Not enthused by this at all. A couple of inches of snow with a period of sleet washed away by rain, seen storms like this many times in the NYC area and it rarely amounts to much. Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, kat5hurricane said: Not enthused by this at all. A couple of inches of snow with a period of sleet washed away by rain, seen storms like this many times in the NYC area and it rarely amounts to much. Yawn That possibility is still very much on the table IMO..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 18 minutes ago, Doorman said: GFS Kuchera with a gully washer in the mix @ 10pm Tues Night What else is new, yea I think I'm gonna have to drop my snow total prediction to 1-3 for the city. The mid level warming trend on the models is just too strong to ignore. Still hope sleet hangs on for a while before the flip to rain, it's very unpredictable for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 52 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: That's why I said "deal with" = treated roads and indirect sunlight factor ! ok, wasn't obvious to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 UK anyone? No big surprises so far tonight, for me, other than the dry NAM (1" or so of total LE vs. 1.5-2" for the other models). And the radar compelled me to look outside and, indeed, we now have some very light snow here in Metuchen. A dusting would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 that's a triple point front on the OPC 48hr surface map http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/530/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Light snow falling here, temp 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 We have an official dusting with light snow falling at 29F...hope that incoming band hits us and doesn't skirt just north of us - that could be a 1/2" band... Edit - and of course, that entire 20 DBZ band weakened to 15 DBZ right on our doorstep - still snowing at a light to moderate clip - guessing we get a 1/4" out of this - will measure later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 A solid dusting already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Winter Weather Advisory in effect for my area from midnight tonight thru 7 pm tomorrow for 2-4" of snow and a light glaze of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Winter Weather Advisory for NYC 2-4 inches of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 hours ago, kat5hurricane said: Not enthused by this at all. A couple of inches of snow with a period of sleet washed away by rain, seen storms like this many times in the NYC area and it rarely amounts to much. Yawn Take any snow you can get 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: What else is new, yea I think I'm gonna have to drop my snow total prediction to 1-3 for the city. The mid level warming trend on the models is just too strong to ignore. Still hope sleet hangs on for a while before the flip to rain, it's very unpredictable for the metro area. You never know. The models can also be underdoing the low level cold like we saw with past storms. Like Neg NAO stated , this will be a nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3,12 and 32K all show varying start and end times but they show a lot of Ice / A lot = more than I want to see. Time will soon tell how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6z runs weren't encouraging at all, especially losing the GFS. At least there should be some frozen precip. Can't catch a break at all! Hopefully that high holds its ground king enough for something halfway decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 6z runs weren't encouraging at all, especially losing the GFS. At least there should be some frozen precip. Can't catch a break at all! Hopefully that high holds its ground king enough for something halfway decent. This is like a broken record. I just need a snow day at this point, even if it's a bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: This is like a broken record. I just need a snow day at this point, even if it's a bust. A snow day isn't going to happen this time around although alot of schools are either closed or delayed for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 6z runs weren't encouraging at all, especially losing the GFS. At least there should be some frozen precip. Can't catch a break at all! Hopefully that high holds its ground king enough for something halfway decent. Expect 1-3 inches and hopefully we end up getting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A snow day isn't going to happen this time around although alot of schools are either closed or delayed for inland areas. If sleet is called for and it is coming down my schools will close, unless it starts well after around 5 am. If the sleet is progged to quickly changeover, then no. We have closed many times for 2-3 of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Expect 1-3 inches and hopefully we end up getting more. WHat happened? Went to bed and WNYC was expecting 2-4 in the city. A couple overnight bad runs again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A snow day isn't going to happen this time around although alot of schools are either closed or delayed for inland areas. Maybe not in NYC but I can see schools in the northern and western suburbs closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: WHat happened? Went to bed and WNYC was expecting 2-4 in the city. A couple overnight bad runs again? This is just not the year for snow. Recently, this storm would have somehow figured out how to drop 4 inches in NYC. Tmw will be lucky to see one inch before the sleet and rain take over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: If sleet is called for and it is coming down my schools will close, unless it starts well after around 5 am. If the sleet is progged to quickly changeover, then no. We have closed many times for 2-3 of sleet. Wow really? 19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: WHat happened? Went to bed and WNYC was expecting 2-4 in the city. A couple overnight bad runs again? 1-3 to play it safe 13 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: This is just not the year for snow. Recently, this storm would have somehow figured out how to drop 4 inches in NYC. Tmw will be lucky to see one inch before the sleet and rain take over I wouldn't be shocked if we see more than 2 inches . Have to see how the CAD plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 About 1.5 here now. Just started snowing again. Had a brief period of freezing drizzle earlier today. 31/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 hours ago, RU848789 said: We have an official dusting with light snow falling at 29F...hope that incoming band hits us and doesn't skirt just north of us - that could be a 1/2" band... Edit - and of course, that entire 20 DBZ band weakened to 15 DBZ right on our doorstep - still snowing at a light to moderate clip - guessing we get a 1/4" out of this - will measure later... Ended up with a pretty 1/4" coating on everything. Take anything I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Picked up a solid coating of snow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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