February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

[Ericjcrash]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

if it is sleet this is going to be no big deal on the roads in the immediate NYC Metro because temps are going to be in the lower 30's and they will be putting tons of salt down and most of it will fall during daylight with more traffic

I disagree. Sleet is harder to plow and much more dense so harder to melt.

[David-LI]

How reliable is the NAM 3k? Shoes less precipitation than 12k

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Generally Edison, Metuchen, Woodbridge and S plainfield and Rahway and Carteret go together. Old Bridge and Sayreville sometimes have it a little different. Elizabeth never used to cancel, these days they do. 

they all share the same bus companies too but if precip is delayed a few hours all bets are off

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

How reliable is the NAM 3k? Shoes less precipitation than 12k

go with the 12km

[weatherpruf]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

they all share the same bus companies too but if precip is delayed a few hours all bets are off

It has to be cranking by 5 am or a forecast with such certainty there is no averting it. That kind of certainty is reserved for big storms. And then they have to make a decision for early out by 10 am. That's how we got screwed on Nv 15; uncertain forecast, snow started too late. Chaos at dismissal.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Appears to me if this is accurate and maybe I am mistaken = that RUSH hour Tuesday evening would be effected and then Wednesday morning A M

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I disagree. Sleet is harder to plow and much more dense so harder to melt.

Took me 3 hours to shovel 5 inches of sleet with temps in the teens for vday 2007.

[HVSnowLover]

RGEM is ugly if you want winter but it's also not in it's ideal range yet

[donsutherland1]

Following the weak clipper system, colder air will briefly funnel into the region. However, a complex system with a vigorous low moving toward the Great Lakes region will bring additional precipitation to the region beginning later tomorrow and continuing on Tuesday. Both the UKMET and NAM are high and low outliers respectively and have largely been discounted in my thinking.

Overall, based on the consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and some weight from the EPS and GEFS, my thinking is that the following amounts are likely:

Albany: 6"-10"
Allentown: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 3"-6"
Bridgeport: 2"-4"
Burlington: 8"-14"
Elmira: 3"-6"
Harrisburg: 3"-6"
Hartford: 3"-6"
Islip: 1"-3"
New York City: 2"-4"
Newark: 2"-4"
Philadelphia: 1"-3"
Providence: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"
Scranton: 3"-6"
White Plains: 3"-6"

NOTE:

Cities such as Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Wilmington, DE are in line to pick up 1"-3" from tonight's clipper system. Those amounts are excluded from the above figures.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Appears to me if this is accurate and maybe I am mistaken = that RUSH hour Tuesday evening would be effected and then Wednesday morning A M

 

Probably more so Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening rush over for NYC Metro up in Rockland it may impact into Wednesday morning rush hour 

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following the weak clipper system, colder air will briefly funnel into the region. However, a complex system with a vigorous low moving toward the Great Lakes region will bring additional precipitation to the region beginning later tomorrow and continuing on Tuesday. Both the UKMET and NAM are high and low outliers respectively and have largely been discounted in my thinking.

Overall, based on the consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and some weight from the EPS and GEFS, my thinking is that the following amounts are likely:

Albany: 6"-10"
Allentown: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 3"-6"
Bridgeport: 2"-4"
Burlington: 8"-14"
Elmira: 3"-6"
Harrisburg: 3"-6"
Hartford: 3"-6"
Islip: 1"-3"
New York City: 2"-4"
Newark: 2"-4"
Philadelphia: 1"-3"
Providence: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"
Scranton: 3"-6"
White Plains: 3"-6"

NOTE:

Cities such as Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Wilmington, DE are in line to pick up 1"-3" from tonight's clipper system. Those amounts are excluded from the above figures.

Thank You Don,,,,,,but do me a favor , next time try and get New City or somewhere closer to home in there for me lol . If your thinking White Plains is 3 - 6 thats a little South of me so I will go with that

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Took me 3 hours to shovel 5 inches of sleet with temps in the teens for vday 2007.

me too

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thank You Don,,,,,,but do me a favor , next time try and get New City or somewhere closer to home in there for me lol . If your thinking White Plains is 3 - 6 thats a little South of me so I will go with that

I'm also thinking 3"-6" for New City. I am also worried about a period of freezing rain.

[Brasiluvsnow]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm also thinking 3"-6" for New City. I am also worried about a period of freezing rain.

I hear you

[HVSnowLover]

Hard to believe it will snow more in South Jersey tonight than the metro area has seen combined all winter since November. Hope this storm isn't a total bust. 

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Hard to believe it will snow more in South Jersey tonight than the metro area has seen combined all winter since November. Hope this storm isn't a total bust. 

Yes it is and they been doing it again and again and again like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day

 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS is basically snow to rain for the metro area, barely any sleet. GFS not good with thermals though.

The truth is the fact the GFS is as cold as it is at the surface with the freezing line just north of the city through 48 I think is a red flag in terms of the potential here.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS is basically snow to rain for the metro area, barely any sleet. GFS not good with thermals though.

The truth is the fact the GFS is as cold as it is at the surface with the freezing line just north of the city through 48 I think is a red flag in terms of the potential here.

this is going to be a nowcasting nightmare a wide range of precip types in various locations across the region...…..

[Doorman]

Standard NAM

S

NAM NEST

cherry pick your guidance if you must

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There’s enough confluence to squash the whole thing south and weaken it as it comes east 

And none of the radar echoes north of 276/195 are likely more than virga or very light snow/flurries.  

[RU848789]

Just now, Doorman said:

Standard NAM

S

NAM NEST

cherry pick your guidance if you must

Both are quite dry (1" or less QPF), but at least 80-90% of it is frozen (mostly sleet) for Trenton to NYC.  I'll gladly take sleet over rain any day of the week.  If the model is correct.  

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Both are quite dry (1" or less QPF), but at least 80-90% of it is frozen (mostly sleet) for Trenton to NYC.  I'll gladly take sleet over rain any day of the week.  If the model is correct.  

Yea I really hope the NAM is right with its limited rain scenario but I doubt it given it's the only model showing this.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Both are quite dry (1" or less QPF), but at least 80-90% of it is frozen (mostly sleet) for Trenton to NYC.  I'll gladly take sleet over rain any day of the week.  If the model is correct.  

I'll pass on a sleet storm, it'll just cause unnecessary travel headaches. 

I hope it just rains at this point.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll pass on a sleet storm, it'll just cause unnecessary travel headaches. 

I hope it just rains at this point.

I am not sure if "just rain" is still on the table ………..

[RU848789]

54 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I disagree. Sleet is harder to plow and much more dense so harder to melt.

Absolutely 100% correct.  Sleet pellets have far lower surface area per unit volume (mass) than snow flakes, meaning that far less surface area is exposed to the ambient temp, such that they'll take a lot longer to melt from road warmth and surface temps in general (and indirect sunlight) - it's like the difference between ice cubes melting in a water glass vs. ice shavings - cubes melt far more slowly.  Sleet is much worse for roads than snow with regard to melting and similar to snow, per unit accumulated mass (not depth) for plowing/shoveling.  

[RU848789]

Thought this was kind of cool = just found out this is available for free from NCEP - should get 0Z comparison soon...

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NJ&stn=KEWR&model=gfs&time=current&field=pcompare.zoom

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I am not sure if "just rain" is still on the table ………..

It's not, warmest scenario is probably brief snow/sleet to rain.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Absolutely 100% correct.  Sleet pellets have far lower surface area per unit volume (mass) than snow flakes, meaning that far less surface area is exposed to the ambient temp, such that they'll take a lot longer to melt from road warmth and surface temps in general (and indirect sunlight) - it's like the difference between ice cubes melting in a water glass vs. ice shavings - cubes melt far more slowly.  Sleet is much worse for roads than snow with regard to melting and similar to snow, per unit accumulated mass (not depth) for plowing/shoveling.  

Sleet is much easier to deal with at 30 degrees then it is at 17 degrees...….

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Thought this was kind of cool = just found out this is available for free from NCEP - should get 0Z comparison soon...

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NJ&stn=KEWR&model=gfs&time=current&field=pcompare.zoom

Interesting comparisons, it's very unusual for the NAM to be the driest model. This storm is a tough forecast all around.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I am not sure if "just rain" is still on the table ………..

Probably not, dews in the teens right now. This is substantially different than the MLK system. 

Also the first system will lay down some snow in our southern regions, which will add to the cooling factor overall.

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's not, warmest scenario is probably brief snow/sleet to rain.

Probably not the case inland, this has icy mess written all over it particularly 20-30 miles west of the city.