RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: You hope you can hang onto sleet a bit longer, but it's gonna take a while to scour this low level cold out. Skew T's on the HRRR have the 900mb level over freezing by 6pm in the city. I unfortunately think this looks a period of like ZR. Shorter for the coast, could be a few hrs interior. Maybe a dumb question. Are there current state soundings/skew T's for any location or specific locations that one can find? Or is that kind of data only available to the folks who collect the data from balloons and other sources for input into the various models? I'm assuming there's some set of global/local soundings that get fed into the models and then they use the model physics to calculate the soundings for locations over time, which would obviously have some error bars associated with them. I keep looking at HRRR and other soundings for my location and others in the future, but was curious what my actual sounding is right now, because we changed to freezing rain around 4:30 pm with a surface temp of 29F and I thought we'd stay sleet based on the HRRR soundings for the future (showing ~2500+ feet of column below 32F to freeze the melted snow from above). Clearly either the model was wrong or my interpretation of the model was flawed - probably some of both, as the model still had me at 29F at 5 pm and we had risen to 32F as of 5 pm. Any insight? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 22 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Up-hill both ways correct? That event was also the biggest for coastal flooding outside Gloria in the 1980’s. First time I got to see the waves breaking over the bulkhead and flooding the streets around the school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Up to 33 with rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Now up to 2.5 inches of snow sleet mix. Easton CT. 10 on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Almost 3 inches of snow/sleet mix here. 27 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: Up to 33 with rain Same here in SW Suffolk. Just started to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Up to a whopping 26 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Raining now. I see no evidence yet that it is freezing, which is good. Maybe my area will avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Sleet picked up the last 20 minutes and we're now up to 1.75" of snow/sleet combined, as of 4 pm, and it's sleeting pretty heavily right now and the radar looks very juicy. Still 29F, so hoping this next hour or so of heavy precip is sleet and not freezing rain. HRRR still showing sleet for the NB/Edison area until about 6 pm or so; could have a bit of freezing rain after that for an hour or two. Kids having a blast across the street (small sledding hill) and the local roads are horrible. We now have freezing rain in Metuchen; it surprisingly started around 4:30 pm while I was shoveling (after we reached 1.8" of sleet/snow) with a temp of 29F. It's now up to 31F as of 5:10 pm and trees, cars, walkways that were cleared, etc., are icy. Be especially careful if you're cleared your driveway/walkway, like I did before it changed. Hopefully, this doesn't last too long. Some major accidents out there, too - bus just overturned on the Turnpike in Woodbridge - freezing rain is some dangerous stuff, although I think we'll be above 32F in the next hour, with NB now at 33F, but models are showing extended freezing rain tonight north of 78 and especially north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: I was wrong on this storm----I predicted a changeover to rain early--instead it went to sleet and stayed as sleet. Probably about .5 inch snow Everybody was wrong on some part of this one - nearly impossible to get more than half of it right, lol... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This was like the typical winter storms from the 70’s into the early 90’s. Brief snow at the start followed by sleet and rain. Actually we didn't even see this much frozen. It was sleet right over to ZR a lot of times, with a flash freeze as it exited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Actually we didn't even see this much frozen. It was sleet right over to ZR a lot of times, with a flash freeze as it exited. I had several hours of frozen precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: We now have freezing rain in Metuchen; it surprisingly started around 4:30 pm while I was shoveling (after we reached 1.8" of sleet/snow) with a temp of 29F. It's now up to 31F as of 5:10 pm and trees, cars, walkways that were cleared, etc., are icy. Be especially careful if you're cleared your driveway/walkway, like I did before it changed. Hopefully, this doesn't last too long. Some major accidents out there, too - bus just overturned on the Turnpike in Woodbridge - freezing rain is some dangerous stuff, although I think we'll be above 32F in the next hour, with NB now at 33F, but models are showing extended freezing rain tonight north of 78 and especially north of 80. That's my concern and it was def right to cancel local schools today, I'm really surprised RU-NB toughed it out, but I guess most students live on campus. Newark closed, more commuters there. Still, nice to have an event and the new Craftsmen did a nice job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: I had several hours of frozen precip I was talking about in the early 90's. Today we stayed frozen here until around 4:30. It was not a bad event for winter weather afficianados. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Actually we didn't even see this much frozen. It was sleet right over to ZR a lot of times, with a flash freeze as it exited. I hardly saw any ZR during the 80’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: I would love a redux of that storm. I'd take 6" of 20° sleet over a 12" snow any day. Anyone have updated LE so far? I agree with Liberty Bell, I thought we might be in line for a sleet event or two, just like 2007. But that one and the March one later stayed frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I hardly saw any ZR during the 80’s. In the 70's I remember them, and the 90's. The 80's didn't feature too much winter weather. There would be some light events, then a few big storms from time to time, every few years. All memory is somewhat subjective; that's why memoir writers get into trouble sometimes; they may remember things differently than others do. I'm not talking about the ones who just make stuff up. I can remember fishing trips with fellow anglers when we can't agree what year and sometimes what fish we were catching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Cold air hanging tough. 21 with moderate sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: I hardly saw any ZR during the 80’s. Long Beach As said above, there wasn't a lot of significant winter weather in the 80's outside of a few select storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 32 here in Smithtown at my job with rain. Don’t see it freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Hi, The following are two graphics that I think are useful in determining snowfall potential. The first is the NWS ensemble probability for various amounts of snow and freezing rain. In this case, for a local briefing I used the prob for snow exceeding 4", issued prior to 4am this morning by the NWS. It ... and if you haven't seen or used this, its good stuff. It showed not that a great a chance for exceeding 4" along and s of I84. I also added a graphic for consideration: Anytime the NAM FOUS has 0 or +C at T5, it sleets or rains, barring excessive VV in the ideal dendritic growth zone (saturated -12 to 18C). Anyway, here's a 00z/12 look at the NAM 3KM T section for HPN. Note the modeled 0C aloft approaching HPN ~17z, when the sleet began mixing in. If the model changes with time, that needs to be considered. In this case, the warming aloft was pretty stout early on. I view both of these tools as helpful reality checks, especially NAM inside of 60 hours. Any questions? Later, Walt 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, RU848789 said: We now have freezing rain in Metuchen; it surprisingly started around 4:30 pm while I was shoveling (after we reached 1.8" of sleet/snow) with a temp of 29F. It's now up to 31F as of 5:10 pm and trees, cars, walkways that were cleared, etc., are icy. Be especially careful if you're cleared your driveway/walkway, like I did before it changed. Hopefully, this doesn't last too long. Some major accidents out there, too - bus just overturned on the Turnpike in Woodbridge - freezing rain is some dangerous stuff, although I think we'll be above 32F in the next hour, with NB now at 33F, but models are showing extended freezing rain tonight north of 78 and especially north of 80. Warming up quickly now, as it just hit 33F around 5:50 pm, so the freezing rain risk is now over for us...enjoy the rest of it, folks up north... Fascinating storm: clearly showed that 1.8" isn't always 1.8" - was actually about 4-4.5" of "snow equivalent" and had an impact like a 4-5" storm, IMO. Was nowhere near snowmageddon, but was certainly a close 2nd to the 11/15 storm for this winter. That one was so impactful because of the timing, starting after everyone was at work and had had lunch and the lowball forecasts from almost everyone right up until it started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 33 and rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Smithtown 6PM 32F Light sleet, 1.7" 6:15 PM 32 Light sleet / rain mix. 32.1F Cleared the driveway. Felt more like 6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 inches or so. Sleet still going. Temp rising rapidly. 29.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: NYC with absolutely not be raining by 7 not here on the Nw side not even close. Moderate sleet/snow continues Most of NYC now above freezing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Temp already jumped to 30.4F since last post. NYC absolutely will be rain shortly Ive never seen a temp rise so rapidly in a winter storm. Almost a degree per 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 First 40 mph gusts of the day along the South Shore. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNYGILGO1#history/tdata/s20190212/e20190212/mdaily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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