Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,348
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    diamondtae
    Newest Member
    diamondtae
    Joined
The Iceman

2/10-2/12 Winter Storm Threat

Recommended Posts

Ignore the totals. Everyone and their mother (maybe even grandmother) knows these maps are bogus. Rather, take note of the southern shift in "frozen accumulation". I don't care what type of frozen precip it is, but clearly there is more frozen falling in southern areas than last run.

namconus_asnow_neus_fh75_trend.thumb.gif.cabea11356d940066e9130f3790e8351.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Ignore the totals. Everyone and their mother (maybe even grandmother) knows these maps are bogus. Rather, take note of the southern shift in "frozen accumulation". I don't care what type of frozen precip it is, but clearly there is more frozen falling in southern areas than last run.

namconus_asnow_neus_fh75_trend.thumb.gif.cabea11356d940066e9130f3790e8351.gif

I know it doesnt matter probably late in the game but did you note the huge jump in the primary to the S and E this run? Not sure if it's right or not but some big changes happen in here short range.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_fh66_trend.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paul you mentioned before that IP is counted as seasonal snowfall. How would we add that here? As a liquid equivalent with a 10:1 ratio?? Do we just take a standard snow board measurement? Anyone else feel free to chime in please.

Hey Steve, according to NWS guidelines you never use a ratio for measurement that is always going to be wrong. IP/Sleet accumulation is exactly the same as snow. If snow changes to IP....wipe the board and start over with new measurement in inches of sleet accumulation. Bottom line is snow and sleet are exactly the same and recorded as snowfall. If you get 4 inches of snow and then 2 inches of sleet you record that as 6 inches of snow

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Hey Steve, according to NWS guidelines you never use a ratio for measurement that is always going to be wrong. IP/Sleet accumulation is exactly the same as snow. If snow changes to IP....wipe the board and start over with new measurement in inches of sleet accumulation. Bottom line is snow and sleet are exactly the same and recorded as snowfall. If you get 4 inches of snow and then 2 inches of sleet you record that as 6 inches of snow

Actually, you shouldn’t clear even if type changes if it hasn’t been 6 hours from the last clearing. So... if you clear the board at noon, it snows til 3 then changes to sleet, you still can’t clear the board until 6.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Newman said:

I'm not sure if this includes the 1st wave, but either way that's 6-8" for much of the NW burbs. 

NE_Snow.png

99% this includes first wave.  Valid 2/10 at 5am through the 12th at 7pm.  You can also tell because it includes lake effect over the tug hill/Syracuse area which is occurring right now.  Bands are stretching out over the northern catskills and towns due north. (Blackhead/Windham Range.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are models such as the NAM and GFS-FV3 overinflating snow totals for our area due to modeling the sleet as 10:1 as opposed to something more realistic like 3:1?  Is the GFS doing the same, as in my mind that is showing a much more realistic forecast in regards to snow totals. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Are models such as the NAM and GFS-FV3 overinflating snow totals for our area due to modeling the sleet as 10:1 as opposed to something more realistic like 3:1?  Is the GFS doing the same, as in my mind that is showing a much more realistic forecast in regards to snow totals. 

Euro is even more bullish than those models. Shows at least 6” for Philly metro area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z NAM has snow break out around 4 or 5pm Monday afternoon for the Lehigh Valley and it continues to snow until 6 or 7am Tuesday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

So are you folks discounting the Euro or are you just talking about round one?

I believe that is Monday thru Tuesday event according to the time stamp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WXSIM update with 6z GFS and 12z NAM for NW Chester County Pa

Snow arriving tonight by 830pm becoming moderate by midnight. Back to light snow by 3am and ending by 7am with 1" to 2" of snow. Snow begins again by 230pm quickly changing to Sleet/IP by 5pm light IP much of the night becoming moderate sleet by midnight with Heavy IP developing by 3am and continuing through 9am Tuesday. By 930am 3" to 5" of sleet would have accumulated. Sleet mixes with and changes to ZR by 10am and becoming all rain by noon. Heavy rain during the PM with up to 2.5" of rain with temps rising to the mid-30's

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, famartin said:

Actually, you shouldn’t clear even if type changes if it hasn’t been 6 hours from the last clearing. So... if you clear the board at noon, it snows til 3 then changes to sleet, you still can’t clear the board until 6.

Thanks for the clarification Ray!! Good to see you on this forum!! take care

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Setting expectations for this one at 1.5" + 1.5" total 3". Always been far inland for these i'm confident the winter of azz will screw me with a quick change to ice pellets and IP

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been super busy this weekend with flyers game and concerts... How we looking in Se pa? Very briefly looked at models and looks like 3-6" snow/sleet total is that right ? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Been super busy this weekend with flyers game and concerts... How we looking in Se pa? Very briefly looked at models and looks like 3-6" snow/sleet total is that right ? 

Sounds accurate probably a general 4 to 4.5" 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Sounds accurate probably a general 4 to 4.5" 

 

Sweet biggest event of winter lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest WXSIM with 12z GFS/NAM blend

Light snow starts around 830pm tonight. Moderate snow by 1130pm back to light snow by 2am tapering to flurries by 6am with 1" to 2" of snow by 7am. Flurries continue during the morning with steady snow redeveloping by 1130am and continuing till 4pm. Then Sleet/IP from 4pm- thru 7am Tuesday morning then a mix of IP/ZR till 11am (total Snow/sleet of 4" to 6" with most of that IP) then very heavy rain all PM with another 4" of rain falling (that looks wrong!) So basically 2.04 inches of qpf falling with temps below freezing and then 4.08" with temps above freezing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Despite what's been shown for days now we have the same SW to NE gradient pattern that's happened all winter to screw us in the NE of the region. Textbook winter remembering the pattern this year.

 

21185C7A-465F-470D-92A9-069BBEF2AD50.png.514606465272107e257bed0c482472df.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, penndotguy said:

I believe that is Monday thru Tuesday event according to the time stamp

Someone posted the euro? Meaning snowfall amounts? I see the Nam right above your post but not the euro.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Someone posted the euro? Meaning snowfall amounts? I see the Nam right above your post but not the euro.

I see it above me now (The post I made) but it was not here today before, only other snow outputs for other models.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ladies and gentleman the most inaccurate snow map prediction in the history of meteorology 

NAM is interesting in that it reduced wave one and showing stronger high holding ground and bigger wave 2

Qtown and Howell in the same gradient shade couldn't make this stuff up lol

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×