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2/10-2/12 Winter Storm Threat


The Iceman
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Just now, Newman said:

Remember that the GFS sucks with thermals, especially in CAD situations. My call right now would be a general 3-5" before icing. I think this is also a situation where there could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere which limits snowfall but raises sleet potential. 

I agree with this call 3-5" seems very reasonable.

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35 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

We still have ~5 weeks of potential winter weather, I'll keep my fingers crossed. Plus, dont most stronger coastal system occur in Feb/March? 

Just saying it's possible considering the difficult winter it's been and the generally not conducive environment that follows this storm the following week to ten days

 

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Wxsim with 12z data obviously trended colder and icier based on the latest models. 

It now has snow arriving by 830pm tomorrow night with moderate snow at midnight with 1" of snow by 1am Monday. Light snow and flurries continue till 6am with 1.5" of snow. Light snow and sleet arrive again by 530pm with moderate IP by midnight - IP over to ZR by 930am with a total of 3" of IP and then another 0.60" of ZR before rising above freezing by noon - Heavy rain all PM with 2.50" of rain before ending late at night with temps rising to 37 degrees 

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Wxsim with 12z data obviously trended colder and icier based on the latest models. 

It now has snow arriving by 830pm tomorrow night with moderate snow at midnight with 1" of snow by 1am Monday. Light snow and flurries continue till 6am with 1.5" of snow. Light snow and sleet arrive again by 530pm with moderate IP by midnight - IP over to ZR by 930am with a total of 3" of IP and then another 0.60" of ZR before rising above freezing by noon - Heavy rain all PM with 2.50" of rain before ending late at night with temps rising to 37 degrees 

Paul you mentioned before that IP is counted as seasonal snowfall. How would we add that here? As a liquid equivalent with a 10:1 ratio?? Do we just take a standard snow board measurement? Anyone else feel free to chime in please.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paul you mentioned before that IP is counted as seasonal snowfall. How would we add that here? As a liquid equivalent with a 10:1 ratio?? Do we just take a standard snow board measurement? Anyone else feel free to chime in please.

Straight 1:1 measurement, no conversion. Maybe clear your snowboard pre-sleet if you want to measure what has fallen vs. snow depth.

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